不同测算方法下行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响分析

行程时间不确定性导致了可达性随时间的变化,相关研究表明忽略行程时间不确定性会高估可达性水平。既有可达性研究往往用行程时间可靠性表示行程时间不确定性,但未考虑不同可达性模型结果的差异以及行程时间可靠性价值。本文结合各OD之间的行程时间分布特征,构建方差型的行程时间可靠性来描述行程时间不确定性,并进一步将行程时间可靠性纳入到广义出行时间成本中,建立了时间距离模型、潜力模型、累计机会模型和高斯模型4种基于位置的可达性测算方法,以比较在不同测算方法下,行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响。深圳的案例研究表明：(1)忽略行程时间不确定性会使全区域的可达性至少被高估5.04%,最大被高估95.04%。潜力模型、时间距离模型、累计机会模型和高斯模型的高估幅度由低到高;(2)行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响存在阈值效应,阈值越高,可达性受影响的程度越小;(3)从空间分布来看,行程时间不确定性对可达性水平高和低的区域都有一定影响。若不考虑行程时间不确定性,可达性高的区域高估值大,而在可达性低的区域,可达性高估的百分比较大,高估百分比中位数的差异程度最大可达77.1%;(4)行程时间不确定性对潜力模型可达性分类的...     

深基坑施工渗水、流砂等病害分析和处理

通过对具体案例的分析,对深基坑施工过程中的渗水、流砂等病害原因进行分析并探讨各种应急处理方案。     

射电望远镜远场区域强干扰源规避方法研究

随着频率使用率的提高, 射电天文台址地面或空间存在强电磁干扰致使望远镜接收机系统处于非线性状态. 为减少强电磁干扰的影响、提高天文观测效率, 提出了一种基于望远镜远场区域的强干扰源规避方法. 首先, 通过仿真分析确定的射电望远镜远场方向图, 结合望远镜与干扰源之间的位置关系, 分析了强电磁干扰到达射电望远镜焦点处的功率响应, 并依据接收机第2阶中频放大器性能参数, 确定射电望远镜处于非饱和状态的规避角度计算方法. 其次, 采用该方法计算分析了民航飞机对射电望远镜的影响, 若民航飞机上有主动发射的干扰源, 且不经过反射等传播现象, 当射电望远镜主波束轴偏开一定方向后, 可有效降低对射电望远镜的干扰强度.     

大口径射电望远镜电磁兼容评估技术研究

电磁兼容性是设备或系统的重要性能指标, 也是保障系统的工作效能和提高系统可靠性的重要因素. 大口径射电望远镜运行阶段, 台址周围无线电业务及内部潜在的电磁干扰会降低观测系统灵敏度、影响天文观测的质量. 本论文针对拟建的新疆110 m全向可动射电望远镜(Qi Tai raido Telescope, QTT)开展了系统电磁兼容评估技术及控制方法研究, 具有重要的工程应用价值. 首先, 依据现有电波环境测量方法的不足, 深入分析了仪器设备的关键参数配置方法及测量时间计算方法, 采用Y因子法校准测量数据, 提出一种准实时电波环境测量方法. 面向高重复性宽带频谱, 分析了宽带频谱信号和噪声特征, 结合标准差理论, 提出一种基于邻值比较的信噪分离方法, 并采用邻值统计方法优化关键参数, 提高信噪分离精度. 针对QTT台址, 开发了自动化电波环境监测系统, 该系统6 GHz以下频段系统增益大于40 dB, 系统噪声系数小于2 dB, 测量不确定度小于1.49 dB, 具有极高的系统灵敏度和测量精度; 分析了频谱监测数据流, 设计了基于HDF5 (Hierarchical Data Format version 5)的数据存储格式, 开发了自动化电波环境测量和监控软件及数据处理软件. 依据QTT台址长期监测数据, 评估分析了台址电磁环境、主要干扰源特征及其影响. 其次, 提出大口径射电望远镜馈源口面干扰电平限值量化方法, 建立了基于台址地形的电波传播模型, 分析了现有电波传播模型的优缺点及适应性, 结合QTT台址实际地形及地质特征, 采用Longley-Rice和Two-Ray电波传播模型, 预测分析了QTT台址潜在干扰区域电磁干扰达到射电望远镜的电波路径衰减, 结合大口径射电望远镜天线增益量化方法, 提出设备所在位置干扰电平限值量化方法, 运用该方法对QTT台址潜在干扰区域的干扰电平限值进行量化. 依据设备所在位置干扰电平限值, 调研分析了国内外军用、民用电磁兼容测量标准, 结合电磁干扰对射电天文观测的影响, 提出一种大口径射电望远镜电磁兼容控制方法, 解决了现有电波暗室测量系统无法直接测量评估电子设备电磁兼容的问题, 该电磁兼容控制方法计划应用于QTT建设及运行阶段, 确保系统拥有良好的电磁兼容性. 最后, 依据QTT台址潜在干扰区域干扰电平限值, 结合典型电子设备电磁辐射频谱, 分析了QTT电磁兼容设计需求, 提出电磁兼容设计初步方案. 另外, 针对台址建筑设施内的中低电磁辐射干扰源, 提出一种低成本建筑屏蔽方法, 应用于QTT台址现有建筑.     

Variation of Floods Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate and Human Activities in Poyang Lake,China

The Poyang Lake is one of the most frequently flooded areas in China. Understanding the changing characteristics of floods as well as the affecting factors is an important prerequisite of flood disaster prevention and mitigation. The present study identified the characteristics variations of historical floods in the Poyang Lake and their tendencies based on the Mann-Kendall(M-K) test, and also investigated the related affecting factors, both from climate and human activities. The results revealed that the highest flood stages, duration as well as hazard coefficient of floods showed a long-term increasing linear trend during the last 60 years with the M-K statistic of 1.49, 1.60 and 1.50, respectively. And, a slightly increasing linear trend in the timing of the highest stages indicated the floods occurred later and later during the last six decades. The rainfall during the flood season and subsequent discharges of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River and runoff from the Poyang Lake Basin were mainly responsible for the severe flood situation in the Poyang Lake in the 1990 s. In addition, the intensive human activities, including land reclamation and levee construction, also played a supplementary role in increasing severity of major floods. While, the fewer floods in the Poyang Lake after 2000 can be attributed to not only the less rainfall over the Poyang Lake Basin and low discharges of the Changjiang River during flood periods, but also the stronger influences of human activity which increased the floodwater storage of the Poyang Lake than before.     

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1958～2018年永定河流域蒸发皿蒸发量的变化特征及其影响因子分析

基于永定河流域1958～2018年14个气象站的逐日观测数据,采用气候倾向率、Mann–Kendall趋势检验法分析蒸发皿蒸发量时空变化特征,并通过完全相关系数和多元回归分析识别气候因子与蒸发量的相关程度并定量计算其贡献率.结果表明:在全球气候变暖的背景下,60年来永定河流域气温以0.29°C/10 a的速率上升,而蒸...     

浙江杭州地区孝丰-三门湾断裂晚第四纪活动性研究

北西走向的孝丰—三门湾断裂是浙北地区一条重要的断裂。该断裂第四纪以来表现为左旋走滑,并水平断错了北东走向的萧山—球川断裂和东西走向的昌化—普陀断裂。这三条断裂交汇于杭州地区并造成了钱塘江的拐弯。在孝丰—三门湾断裂与北东走向断裂的交汇处曾有多次地震发生。通过在孝丰—三门湾断裂（杭州段）上布设的4 个探槽,发现该断裂附近存在一系列近于东西走向及北东走向的晚更新世活动断裂。这些断层活动可能是由孝丰—三门湾主干断裂的活动引起的,并调节着孝丰—三门湾主干断裂的活动,减弱断裂附近应力,降低区域地震危害性。采用了光释光（OSL）测年方法来限定断层活动时代,并采用孢粉测年对OSL 年龄进行验证。依据OSL 年龄,探槽所揭露的断层活动均发生距今1.65 万年之前,存在两次断层活动,分别发生于1.65~1.97 万年和4.2~5.12 万年。孝丰—三门湾断裂在晚更新世有所活动的认识对于杭州地区乃至整个浙北地区未来的地震危险性评价具有重要的意义。     

Could CMIP6 climate models reproduce the early-2000s global warming slowdown?

The unexpected global warming slowdown during 1998–2013 challenges the existing scientific understanding of global temperature change mechanisms, and thus the simulation and prediction ability of state-of-the-art climate models since most models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) cannot simulate it. Here, we examine whether the new-generation climate models in CMIP6 can reproduce the recent global warming slowdown, and further evaluate their capacities for simulating key-scale natural variabilities which are the most likely causes of the slowdown. The results show that although the CMIP6 models present some encouraging improvements when compared with CMIP5, most of them still fail to reproduce the warming slowdown. They considerably overestimate the warming rate observed in 1998–2013,exhibiting an obvious warming acceleration rather than the observed deceleration. This is probably associated with their deficiencies in simulating the distinct temperature change signals from the human-induced long-term warming trend and/or the three crucial natural variabilities at interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal scales. In contrast, the 4 models that can successfully reproduce the slowdown show relatively high skills in simulating the long-term warming trend and the three keyscale natural variabilities. Our work may provide important insight for the simulation and prediction of near-term climate changes.     

基于SPI指数的当前及未来中国东北地区干旱时空演变特征分析

基于降水量历史观测数据和气候模式预估数据,采用标准化降水量指数(Standandized Precipitation Index,SPI)识别干旱事件,从干旱发生的频率和强度特征分析其危险性,研究东北地区当前及未来不同气候变化情景下干旱时空变化特征.结果显示:(1)bcc-csm1-1 对东北地区降水的模拟效果较好;(...