碳质气溶胶在藏东南冰芯中的记录

在青藏高原东南部帕隆藏布源头海洋性冰川区,对冰川编目的4号冰川（PLZ-4）实施冰芯钻取,获得总长度为29 m的冰芯。对冰芯中元素碳（EC）、不溶性有机碳（WIOC）和可溶性离子（Cl-,NO3-,SO42-,Na+,K+,Mg2+,Ca2+）的含量进行实验分析,结果显示：1998-2005年上述组分在该冰芯中的含量均呈现持续增长的趋势;冰芯中EC含量及EC/WIOC比值表现出非季风季节高、季风季节低的显著特征,揭示了该地区冰川中记录的碳质气溶胶浓度与南亚棕色云之间的密切联系。同时指出,在季风前的4-5月,沉降于雪冰中平均含量＞10 ng/g的EC所引起的雪冰表面反照率降低以及冰川消融等气候环境效应不容忽视。     

Preliminary results on hydrological and hydrochemical features of Kartamak Glacier area in Mt. Muztag Ata

The variations of the meltwater runoff draining from Kartamak Glacier in Mt. Muztag Ata in China were studied by using the measured hydrological data from 1 June to 25 August 2003. The meltwater runoff is mainly affected by ambient temperature and precipitation. Meltwater and precipitation samples were collected from 10 to 23 August 2003. Their pH, EC (electric conductivity) and the major ions (Na~ , K~ , Ca~(2 ), Mg~(2 ), Cl~-, NO_3~-, SO_~4~(2-)) were determined. pH values showed a positive correlation with EC values for all samples. Meltwater samples were slightly alkaline. Sulfate and calcium were the dominant anion and cation in the measured ions, respectively. All the ion concentrations had inverse relationships with runoff or water level. In order to discuss the origins of dissolved chemical substances in the glacial meltwater, a principal component analysis was carried out. The results showed that water-rock interaction determined the ion components of the meltwater.     

A new approach on seismic mortality estimations based on average population density

This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the population density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.     

Dasuopu ice core record of atmospheric methane over the past 2000 years

The concentrations of CH₄ in the atmosphere over the past 2000 years have been deduced by extracting and analyzing the air in bubbles embedded in the Dasuopu ice core, Qing-hai-Tibetan Plateau. Upon analyzing 57 ice core samples we found that the concentration of CH₄ 200 years ago and earlier was 0.85 μ mol· mol^-1 or about 40% of present atmospheric CH₄ levels over Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. A rapid and significant increase of atmospheric CH₄ started about 200–250 a ago. For a given age before 19th century, the Dasuopu CH₄ concentrations were about 15%-20% higher than those in Antarctic and Greenland references. It was also found that the Dasuopu CH₄ concentrations changed more frequently, and its fluctuations could reflect the temperature change sensitively.     

Climatic changes on orbital and sub-orbital time scale recorded by the Guliya ice core in Tibetan Plateau

Based on ice core records in the Tibetan Plateau and Greenland, the features and possible causes of climatic changes on orbital and sub-orbital time scale were discussed. Orbital time scale climatic change recorded in ice core from the Tibetan Plateau is typically ahead of that from polar regions, which indicates that climatic change in the Tibetan Plateau might be earlier than polar regions. The solar radiation change is a major factor that dominates the climatic change on orbital time scale. However, climatic events on sub-orbital time scale occurred later in the Tibetan Plateau than in the Arctic Region, indicating a different mechanism. For example, the Younger Dryas and Heinrich events took place earlier in Greenland ice core record than in Guliya ice core record. It is reasonable to propose the hypothesis that these climatic events were affected possibly by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Therefore, ice sheet is critically important to climatic change on sub-orbital time scale in some ice ages.     

An Analysis for Cross Beam-Ground Anchor Reinforcement

With the rapid development of water facilities, hydroelectric projects, highways and railways in China, beam-anchor reinforcement has been widely used to stabilize slopes in recent years. But the theory for the design of beam-anchor reinforcement is far behind the application. Cross beam-ground anchor reinforcement is a combination of beams and anchors forming a new structure to prevent slope sliding. The forces in the beams are discussed using theoretical analysis and numerical modeling. The Winkler model is used to analyze the beams, and reasonable values of λ, length, spacing and cantilevered length for the beams are determined through a theoretical analysis. A three-dimensional finite element method is adopted to model the interaction of the beams and soils and a structure analysis is applied to treat the beams and to study the stress distribution in external and internal beams. The analytical results show that it is better to satisfy λ≥2π, the spacing between anchors ls should be lsλ<π/2 and cantilever length should be (0.3-0.5)ls for the optimum design. The numerical results show that the same design can be used for all beams in different directions, including the internal and external beams. The application of the analytical method for reinforcement beam analysis is acceptable. It is better to choose a safety coefficient of 1.3 for design based on the analytical method for safety.     

Variations of δ18O in precipitation from the Muztagata Glacier, East Pamirs

Expeditions to Muztagata (in the eastern Pamirs) during the summer seasons of 2002 and 2003 collected precipitation samples and measured their oxygen isotopes. The δ18O in precipitation displays a wide range, varying from -17.40‰ to +1.33‰ in June-September 2002 and from -22.31‰ to +4.59‰ in May-August 2003. The δ18O in precipitation correlates with the initial temperature of precipitation during the observing periods. The positive correlation between δ18O and tem- perature suggests that δ18O can be used as an indicator of temperature in this region. The δ18O values in fresh-snow samples collected from two snow events at different elevations on the Muztagata Glacier show a strong "altitude effect", with a ratio of nearly -0.40‰ per 100 m from 5500 m to 7450 m.     

单颗粒黑碳光度计在青藏高原雪冰样品分析中的应用

大气中的黑碳主要由化石燃料以及生物质燃料不完全燃烧产生, 经由传输以及沉降等过程, 可到达并沉积于偏远地区的雪冰表面。相对于洁净的雪表, 较暗的黑碳可吸收更多的太阳辐射, 导致雪表反照率降低, 加速冰雪消融, 进而对区域气候环境产生重要影响。青藏高原的环境脆弱而敏感, 是全球气候变化的驱动机与放大器。根据青藏高原山地冰川雪冰样品矿物杂质多、 浓度变化大的特点, 优化了雪冰单颗粒黑碳光度计（Single Particle Soot Photometer, SP2）分析方法, 制定了规范详细的实验步骤, 评估了样品储存和分样、 进样方式、 样品稀释等过程对测量结果的影响, 并用该方法对研究区域的季节积雪及雪坑样品进行检测。结果表明： 青藏高原雪冰中黑碳浓度在0.21~47.96 ng·mL^-1之间, 平均值6.69 ng·mL^-1。测样过程中连续测定胶体石墨标样, 校正后的回收率在75%以上。因此, 优化的SP2方法能够获得青藏高原雪冰中准确可靠的黑碳含量信息, 对利用雪冰介质重建黑碳的历史变化过程, 进而准确评估其对气候环境的影响程度, 具有重要意义。     

Geochemistry of dust aerosol over the Eastern Pamirs

The Pamirs are situated in the inner part of the Asian continent, a region which plays a critical role in Asian dust emission and transport. This study measured the elemental composition of atmospheric dust aerosol samples collected during the period between July 2004 and April 2006 at Mt. Muztagata, Eastern Pamirs, at a high-altitude (38°17′N, 75°01′E, 4430 m). The Muztagata aerosol samples show Ca/Al (∼0.7) and Fe/Al (∼0.7) ratios that are distinguishable from those from other sites. The La/Th ratios (averaging 2.30-2.36) and Th/U ratios (averaging 2.75-3.11) indicate typical eolian deposition. The dust aerosol samples have very similar rare earth element (REE) patterns, with relative enrichment of light REE, a slight depletion of heavy REE, and a strongly negative europium anomaly (δEu values averaging 0.65). The Muztagata dust shows homogeneity of composition during the sampling period, with minor variations due to seasonal effects and possible different air mass, suggesting the possibility of a well-mixed atmospheric background dust on a regional scale. The zonal Westerlies dominate and the longitude circulations are relatively very weak for dust transport dynamics in the Pamirs and Tien Shan regions. Our results demonstrate a distinct difference in elemental composition between dust over the Eastern Pamirs and that over Inilchek, Central Tien Shan, indicating that the Asian dust emission regions have great variations in their chemical properties, and provide a better constraint on the climatic impact of Asian dust.