7月西太平洋副高相关分析及预报

对7月500hPa西太平洋副高的高度场格点历史资料进行EOF分解,在相关普查的基础上,分别建立前5个特征向量所对应的时间系数的预报方程,然后用预报的主成分求得7月西太平洋副高500hPa高度场的预报值,对2003年7月西太平洋副高形势进行试报,并对2003年7月西太平洋副高异常的成因进行了探讨。     

基于数据驱动的时间序列b值计算新方法(TbDD):以2021年云南漾濞Ms6.4地震序列为例

时间序列的b值在天然地震和工业开采诱发地震的危险性分析中具有重要的应用潜力,但长期以来受到计算规则设置的人为主观性、计算结果的可靠性和时序对突变识别精度不高等问题影响,制约了不同结果的可比较性和共识性科学认识的提炼.本文借鉴基于数据驱动(data-driven)的地震活动参数计算思路,采用连续函数形式的OK1993模型...     

基于上海数字化台网的地震记录探讨西部地区地震定位

东部地区的数字化地震台网在定位西部地区的某些地震时总产生偏差,这一现象很普遍。本文利用中国地震局2001~2003年测定的中国西部地区(云南、四川、甘肃、青海、新疆、内蒙古)地震,比较上海数字地震台网的大震速报结果,对上海数字地震台网在地震定位方面存在的一些问题进行分析与处理,进而加深速报人员对西部地区地震记录特点的理解,提高东部地区的地震分析人员对西部地震的速报精度。     

EFFECT OF TSUNAMIS GENERATED IN THE MANILA TRENCH ON CHINA MAINLAND

Tsunami is one of the most devastating natural coastal disasters. Most of large tsunamis are generated by submarine earthquakes occurring in subduction zones. Tsunamis can also be triggered by volcano eruptions and large landslides. There are many records about "sea-overflow" in Chinese ancient books, which are not proved to be tsunamis. Tectonics and historical records analysis are import to forecast and prevention of tsunami. Consider the tectonic environment of the China sea, the possibility of huge damage caused by the offshore tsunami is very small. And the impact of the ocean tsunami on the Bohai sea, the Yellow sea, and the East China sea is also small. But in the South China Sea, the Manila subduction zone has been identified as a high hazardous tsunamigenic earthquake source region. No earthquake larger than M_W7.6 has been recorded in the past 100a in this region, suggesting a high probability for larger earthquakes in the future. If a tsunamigenic earthquake were to occur in this region in the near future, a tragedy with the magnitude similar to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami could repeat itself. In this paper, based on tectonics and historical records analysis, we have demonstrated that potential for a strong future earthquake along the Manila subduction zone is real. Using a numerical model, we have also shown that most countries in the South China Sea will be affected by the tsunamis generated by the future earthquake. For China, it implies that the maximum wave height over 4.0 meter on China mainland, especially the Pearl River Estuary. But the island, local relief maybe influence the maximum wave. But it takes nearly 3 hours to attack China mainland, if there is the operational tsunami warning system in place in this region, should be greatly reduced losses. And the simulated results are conformable to historical records. It indicates that the tsunami hazards from Manila trench to China mainland worthy of our attention and prevention.     

河西走廊“2010.04.24”特强沙尘暴特征分析

利用全天空成像仪、地面、高空气象观测资料、数值模式资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对2010年4月24日甘肃河西走廊的特强沙尘暴过程进行了分析。结果表明,从观测到沙尘至天空完全被沙尘遮蔽,仅仅只有2.5min;中西伯利亚—新疆北部的偏北大风携带着极地强冷空气入侵,造成了甘肃河西走廊的特强沙尘暴。进一步的分析还表明,沙尘区域上空存在一个西风急流中心,其高度在200-250hPa之间,沙尘暴爆发时,风速增大到40m.s-1,高度降低,范围扩大。由急流中心向地面伸展的最大风速带将高空动量向下传播,引发了河西走廊的沙尘暴;南北风的变化主要发生在250hPa以下,最大中心高度均位于400hPa附近,北风前锋到达之处,沙尘暴爆发;冷空气爆发时,首先造成地面气温的急剧下降,其次是700hPa和500hPa气温下降;地面热低压的强烈发展,一方面使气压梯度加大,另一方面导致边界层对流不稳定,二者的作用都增强了沙尘暴的强度。     

Solar-Terrestrial Signal Record in Tree Ring Width Time Series from Brazil

This work investigates the behavior of the sunspot number and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) signal recorded in the tree ring time series for three different locations in Brazil: Humaitá in Amaz?nia State, Porto Ferreira in S?o Paulo State, and Passo Fundo in Rio Grande do Sul State, using wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis techniques. The wavelet spectra of tree ring time series showed signs of 11 and 22?years, possibly related to the solar activity, and periods of 2–8?years, possibly related to El Ni?o events. The cross-wavelet spectra for all tree ring time series from Brazil present a significant response to the 11-year solar cycle in the time interval between 1921 to after 1981. These tree ring time series still have a response to the second harmonic of the solar cycle (5.5?years), but in different time intervals. The cross-wavelet maps also showed that the relationship between the SOI x tree ring time series is more intense, for oscillation in the range of 4–8?years.     

底商多层砌体结构隔震设计方法与应用

基于《建筑抗震设计规范》2010版有关规定,以某底商多层砌体结构为例,简要介绍了底商多层砌体结构采用隔震技术的设计要点和步骤。     

Study of the Seismogenic Structure of the October 12th, 2019 MS5.2 Beiliu Earthquake, Guangxi, China

On October 12~(th),2019,a M_S5.2 earthquake occurred in Beiliu City,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,China,with a focal depth of 10 km. The epicenter is located in the junction of Guangxi and Guangdong where the moderate-strong earthquakes are relatively active. The highest intensity of this earthquake is estimated up to Ⅵ besides the isoseismic line showed an ellipse shape with a long axis trend in the NW direction.The aftershocks are not evenly distributed. The parameters of the focal mechanism solutions are: strike 346°,dip 85°,rake 19° for the nodal planeⅠ,and strike 254°,dip 71°,rake 175° for the nodal planeⅡ. The type of the coseismic fault is strikeslip. After analyzing these results above and the active faults near the epicenter,we get that the nodal planeⅠ is interpreted as the coseismic rupture plane and the BamaBobai Fault is a seismogenic structure of M_S5.2 Beiliu earthquake.     

基于ETAS模型对青海地区余震预测效能评估的研究

为系统评估青海地区余震短期发生率的预测效能,以及构建适合地震活动特点的余震早期预测策略和预测指标体系,利用国际上当前较为前沿的时间序列ETAS模型和"瘦化算法"对青海地区2009年以来的8个地震的早期余震序列参数进行拟合,并利用N-test检验方法对预测结果进行回溯性的效能评估。研究表明:ETAS模型和"瘦化算法"对青海地区的余震发生率具有很好的预测能力,建议采用3天的预测时间窗,且对序列早期阶段进行应用,或可取得"最佳"的预测效果。     

大庆地区建筑物防雷工程常见的质量问题及对策

1引言 近年来,大庆市房屋新建面积平均每年200～250万,建筑物防雷安全引起了各级政府和气象部门的高度重视,各建设、设计、施工、监理等单位都能够按照《建筑物防雷设计规范》（GB50057-94）要求设计、安装防雷设施,起到了可靠的防雷作用。