SENSITIVITY OF MALARIA, SCHISTOSOMIASIS AND DENGUE TO GLOBAL WARMING

Global assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenically-induced climate change on vector-borne diseases suggests an increase in extent of the geographical areas susceptible to transmission of malarial Plasmodium parasites, dengue Flavivirus and Schistosoma worms. The transmission potential of the three associated vector-borne diseases studied is highly sensitive to climate changes on the periphery of the currently endemic areas and at higher altitudes within such areas. Our findings vis-à-vis the present endemic areas indicate that the increase in the epidemic potential of malaria and dengue transmission may be estimated at 12–27% and 31–47%, respectively, while in contrast, schistosomiasis transmission potential may be expected to exhibit a 11–17% decrease.     

Genauigkeitserwartung photographischer Sternpositionen bei geschlossener Blockausgleichung

The theoretical accuracy of photographically determined star positions is studied, based on the assumption that the whole sphere is covered by a net of fields, 4 plates each, and that all the plates are adjusted simultaneously in a closed block. The influence of the number of fields on the accuracy is estimated by computing schematized spheric blocks containing only a few reference stars. If the plates are taken with a focal length of 2 meters, the block will consist of 2500 fields, and a mean accuracy of star position of 0.1 can be expected.     

A Model of Magmatic Crystallization

A computer model simulating fractional crystallization at oneatmosphere pressure incorporates nine broadly-defined minerals—magnetite,olivine, hypersthene, augite, quartz, plagioclase, orthoclase,leucite, and nepheline. The crystallization temperature of eachmineral is considered to be a smooth function of the compositionof the magmatic liquid. These mineral temperature equationsare obtained by multiple linear regression analysis of informationfrom published silicate systems and rock melting experiments.The nine equations are solved for any primary liquid, withinthe broad range of common magma types, to select the crystallizingmineral or minerals. Partition ratios from published experimentsand analyses of lavas and phenocrysts permit calculation ofthe composition of the crystallizing mineral assemblage. Subtractionof a small amount of that composition from the primary liquidyields a new liquid, which may be recycled to yield a sequenceof liquids during fractional crystallization. The crystallizationmodel handles assemblages of co-precipitating minerals, andcan trace progressive saturation in new minerals, substitutionof a new mineral for an old mineral, and cessation of crystallizationof a mineral. The sequences of minerals and liquids derivedfrom a broad set of primary liquids are geologically realistic,so the model is useful in predicting phenocrysts in volcanicrocks and events during crystallization of shallow intrusions.     

Enhancement of the method of summer precipitation forecasting

The physical-synoptic principles of the automated method of summer precipitation forecasting introduced into operational prognostic practice in 2006 by the decree of the Central Methodical Commission of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) are presented. Beside that, improved modifications of this method, which are automatically updated, are shown. Validation of those updates based on observational data collected in 2004 has shown improvement of all major criteria of forecasts efficiency. The performed improvement is based on the more detailed quantitative realization of mechanism of various showers formation (including heavy rainfalls).     

Search for optical identifications in the 5C4 radio survey

With the aid of a statistical approach regarding only the nearest optical object to a given radio position we have found identification rates of nearly 30 per cent up to the blue and red limits of the Palomar Sky Survey prints covering the region of the 5C4 radio survey. Roughly 60 per cent of these identifications are blue starlike objects and therefore possible quasar candidates. The remainig identifications are galaxies. Probabilities for the first neighbours to be an optical counterpart and finding charts for highly reliable objects are given.     

Metadolerite age relationships in the Dalradian of northwest Donegal,Ireland and their orogenic significance

The structural relationships of several intrusive sheets belonging to the extensive metadolerite suite of the Appin (lower) Dalradian rocks of the Creeslough area, northwest Donegal, Ireland have been examined. It is concluded that, relative to the regional chronology of deformation of the enclosing metasediments, sheet emplacement has occurred: pre-D2; syn-D2; between D2 and D3; and syn-D3. The height of activity came in the post-D2, pre-D3 interval and coincided with the peak of regional metamorphism in the area. These relationships in Donegal are compared with those of the pretectonic basic rocks of the southwest Highlands and models are discussed.