Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium

We present and describe in detail the advantages and limitations of a technique that combines in an optimal way model results and proxy-data time series in order to obtain states of the climate system consistent with model physics, reconstruction of past radiative forcing and proxy records. To achieve this goal, we select among an ensemble of simulations covering the last millennium performed with a low-resolution 3-D climate model the ones that minimise a cost function. This cost function measures the misfit between model results and proxy records. In the framework of the tests performed here, an ensemble of 30 to 40 simulations appears sufficient to reach reasonable correlations between model results and reconstructions, in configurations for which a small amount of data is available as well as in data-rich areas. Preliminary applications of the technique show that it can be used to provide reconstructions of past large-scale temperature changes, complementary to the ones obtained by statistical methods. Furthermore, as model results include a representation of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, it can be used to provide insights into some amplification mechanisms responsible for past temperature changes. On the other hand, if the number of proxy records is too low, it could not be used to provide reconstructions of past changes at a regional scale.     

Military Emissions, Armed Conflicts, Border Changes and the Kyoto Protocol

The impacts of military activities in peacetime, military action and territorial changes on greenhouse gas emission commitments of nations under the Kyoto Protocol are analysed. We propose rules and institutional responsibilities to deal with the repercussions of such changes on markets in emission permits and national commitments aiming at prevention of serious distortions.     

Applying size segregation to relate the surrounding aerosol pollution to its source

Size segregated sampling of aerosol particles at the coal-fired power station Šoštanj, Slovenia was performed by a newly developed system. In addition, simultaneous sampling of particles was performed at two locations, Velenje and Veliki vrh, chosen on the basis of long term monitoring of SO₂ in the influential area of power plant. The signature of the power plant (e.g. characteristic size distributions of some typical trace elements) was identified. For elements, like As, Mo, Cd and Ga, which are typical for coal combustion, the highest concentrations were observed in the size range between 1 and 4 μm. For Se and sometimes for Ga two modes were identified, first between 0.1 and 0.5 μm and second between 1 and 4 μm. Ratios between the average concentrations of selected elements in fine and coarse particles collected at Veliki vrh (the most influenced location) and Velenje (usually not influenced by the thermo power station) were significantly higher than 1 in the case of Mo and Se for coarse and fine size range, while for As the ratio was higher than 1 for the coarse fraction. Consequently, Mo, Se and As were found as the most important tracers for the emissions from the investigated source. On the basis of the ratios between the concentrations of elements measured in particles at low and high SO₂ concentrations at Veliki vrh, Cd was shown to be a typical tracer as well. Our results definitely showed that size segregated measurements of particles at the source and in the influenced area give more precise information on the influence of source to the surrounding region. It was found that patterns of size distributions for typical trace elements observed at the source are found also in the influenced area, i.e. Veliki vrh.     

Chemical Mechanism Development: Laboratory Studies and Model Applications

Within the German Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) numerous kinetic and mechanistic studies on the tropospheric reaction/degradation of the following reactants were carried out: oxygenated VOC, aromatic VOC, biogenic VOC, short-lived intermediates, such as alkoxy and alkylperoxy radicals.At the conception of the projects these selected groups were classes of VOC or intermediates for which the atmospheric oxidation mechanisms were either poorly characterised or totally unknown. The motivation for these studies was the attainment of significant improvements in our understanding of the atmospheric chemical oxidation processes of these compounds, particularly with respect to their involvement in photooxidant formation in the troposphere. In the present paper the types of experimental investigations performed and the results obtained within the various projects are briefly summarised. The major achievements are highlighted and discussed in terms of their contribution to improving our understanding of the chemical processes controlling photosmog formation in the troposphere.     

Standardization of baseline and additionality determination under the CDM

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project developers have long complained about the complexities of project-specific baseline setting and the vagaries of additionality determination. In response to this, the CDM Executive Board took bold steps towards the standardization of CDM methodologies, culminating in the approval of guidelines for the establishment of performance standards in November 2011. The guidelines specify a performance standard stringency level for both baseline and additionality of 80% for several priority sectors and 90% for all other sectors. However, an analysis of 14 large-scale CDM methodologies that use performance standard approaches challenges this top-down approach to the performance standard design. An appropriate performance standard stringency level strongly depends on sector and technology characteristics. A single stringency level for baseline and additionality determination is appropriate only for greenfield projects, but not for retrofit ones. Overly simple, highly aggregated performance standards are unlikely to ensure high environmental integrity, and difficult questions regarding stringency and updating frequency will eventually have to be addressed on a rather disaggregated level. A careful balance between data requirements and the practicability of performance standards is essential because the heavy data requirements of the existing performance standard methodologies have been the key barrier to their actual implementation.

Policy relevance

CDM regulators have been pushed by many stakeholders to standardize baseline setting and eliminate project-specific additionality determination. At first glance, performance standards seem to provide the perfect solution for both tasks. However, a one-size-fits-all political decision – e.g. the average of the top 20% performers as enshrined in the Marrakech Accords – is inappropriate. Substantial disaggregation of performance standards is required both technologically and geographically in order to limit over- and under-crediting and close loopholes for non-additional projects. As a lack of reliable and complete data has been and will be a key bottleneck for the development of performance standards, international support for data collection will be indispensable, but costly, and time-consuming. Empirically driven, techno-economic assessments of performance standard stringency levels must be the central task of the future work on standardized methodologies, and should not be sidelined by perceived needs of policy makers to take bold decisions under time pressures.     

Singular value decomposition and cluster analysis as regression diagnostics tools for geodetic applications

It is well known that high-leverage observations significantly affect the estimation of parameters. In geodetic literature, mainly redundancy numbers are used for the detection of single high-leverage observations or of single redundant observations. In this paper a further objective method for the detection of groups of important and less important (and thus redundant) observations is developed. In addition, the parameters which are predominantly affected by these groups of observations are identified. This method thus complements other diagnostics tools, such as, e.g., multiple row diagnostics methods as described in statistical literature (see, e.g., Belsley et al. in Regression diagnostics: identifying influential data and sources of collinearity. Wiley, New York, 1980). The method proposed in this paper is based on geometric aspects of adjustment theory and uses the singular value decomposition of the design matrix of an adjustment problem together with cluster analysis methods for regression diagnostics. It can be applied to any geodetic adjustment problem and can be used for the detection of (groups of) observations that significantly affect the estimated parameters or that are of negligible impact. One of the advantages of the proposed method is the improvement of the reliability of observation plans and thus the reduction of the impact of individual observations (and outliers) on the estimated parameters. This is of particular importance for the very long baseline interferometry technique which serves as an application example of the regression diagnostics tool.     

Rhuddanian to Aeronian (Llandovery,early Silurian) carbon isotope stratigraphy throughout carbonate sequences in the upper Yangtze region,South China block

The Xiangshuyuan Formation (middle Rhuddanian to middle Aeronian stages of the Llandovery Series, lower Silurian) records a shelly fauna representing recovery after the end-Ordovician mass extinction in a well-oxygenated shallow carbonate platform of the Upper Yangtze region, South China Block. Carbon isotope stratigraphy is documented from limestone sequences of the formation at the Qiankou section, northeast Guizhou. The early Aeronian carbon isotope excursion (EACIE, with an amplitude of about 2 ‰ and peak value of 2.44 ‰) is identified in the middle and upper parts of the formation (Ozarkodina obesa conodont Biozone). The EACIE recorded herein correlates well with those in Baltica, Canada, and the United States; together with its records from organic material (δ¹³C_org) the data verify that the EACIE is a global event. The beginning of the EACIE can be used as a chemostratigraphic marker defining the Rhuddanian/Aeronian boundary in strata that lack high-resolution biostratigraphic constraints.     

Deep structure of the bohemian massif from phase velocities of Rayleigh and Love waves

Summary Phase velocities of Rayleigh and Love waves have been measured between the broadband seismic stations KHC (Kaperské Hory, South Bohemia) and KSP (Ksi, Lower Silesia), a profile that nearly coincides with the Interactional DSS Profile VII. The data for both wave types were separately inverted into models of shear-wave velocity versus depth. Novotný's model KHKS 82[1] for the DSS Profile VII was used as a start model. While the crustal section of Novotný's model is compatible with both of our data sets, our Rayleigh-wave data require smaller shear-wave velocities, on the average by 0.24 km/s, in the top 180 km of the mantle. The average difference between Novotný's model and our Love-wave model in that depth range is only 0.06 km/s. If our identification of the observed Love waves as the fundamental mode is correct, this result indicates the presence of polarization anisotropy in the uppermost mantle.

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