Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium

We present and describe in detail the advantages and limitations of a technique that combines in an optimal way model results and proxy-data time series in order to obtain states of the climate system consistent with model physics, reconstruction of past radiative forcing and proxy records. To achieve this goal, we select among an ensemble of simulations covering the last millennium performed with a low-resolution 3-D climate model the ones that minimise a cost function. This cost function measures the misfit between model results and proxy records. In the framework of the tests performed here, an ensemble of 30 to 40 simulations appears sufficient to reach reasonable correlations between model results and reconstructions, in configurations for which a small amount of data is available as well as in data-rich areas. Preliminary applications of the technique show that it can be used to provide reconstructions of past large-scale temperature changes, complementary to the ones obtained by statistical methods. Furthermore, as model results include a representation of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, it can be used to provide insights into some amplification mechanisms responsible for past temperature changes. On the other hand, if the number of proxy records is too low, it could not be used to provide reconstructions of past changes at a regional scale.     

Applying size segregation to relate the surrounding aerosol pollution to its source

Size segregated sampling of aerosol particles at the coal-fired power station Šoštanj, Slovenia was performed by a newly developed system. In addition, simultaneous sampling of particles was performed at two locations, Velenje and Veliki vrh, chosen on the basis of long term monitoring of SO₂ in the influential area of power plant. The signature of the power plant (e.g. characteristic size distributions of some typical trace elements) was identified. For elements, like As, Mo, Cd and Ga, which are typical for coal combustion, the highest concentrations were observed in the size range between 1 and 4 μm. For Se and sometimes for Ga two modes were identified, first between 0.1 and 0.5 μm and second between 1 and 4 μm. Ratios between the average concentrations of selected elements in fine and coarse particles collected at Veliki vrh (the most influenced location) and Velenje (usually not influenced by the thermo power station) were significantly higher than 1 in the case of Mo and Se for coarse and fine size range, while for As the ratio was higher than 1 for the coarse fraction. Consequently, Mo, Se and As were found as the most important tracers for the emissions from the investigated source. On the basis of the ratios between the concentrations of elements measured in particles at low and high SO₂ concentrations at Veliki vrh, Cd was shown to be a typical tracer as well. Our results definitely showed that size segregated measurements of particles at the source and in the influenced area give more precise information on the influence of source to the surrounding region. It was found that patterns of size distributions for typical trace elements observed at the source are found also in the influenced area, i.e. Veliki vrh.     

Standardization of baseline and additionality determination under the CDM

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project developers have long complained about the complexities of project-specific baseline setting and the vagaries of additionality determination. In response to this, the CDM Executive Board took bold steps towards the standardization of CDM methodologies, culminating in the approval of guidelines for the establishment of performance standards in November 2011. The guidelines specify a performance standard stringency level for both baseline and additionality of 80% for several priority sectors and 90% for all other sectors. However, an analysis of 14 large-scale CDM methodologies that use performance standard approaches challenges this top-down approach to the performance standard design. An appropriate performance standard stringency level strongly depends on sector and technology characteristics. A single stringency level for baseline and additionality determination is appropriate only for greenfield projects, but not for retrofit ones. Overly simple, highly aggregated performance standards are unlikely to ensure high environmental integrity, and difficult questions regarding stringency and updating frequency will eventually have to be addressed on a rather disaggregated level. A careful balance between data requirements and the practicability of performance standards is essential because the heavy data requirements of the existing performance standard methodologies have been the key barrier to their actual implementation.

Policy relevance

CDM regulators have been pushed by many stakeholders to standardize baseline setting and eliminate project-specific additionality determination. At first glance, performance standards seem to provide the perfect solution for both tasks. However, a one-size-fits-all political decision – e.g. the average of the top 20% performers as enshrined in the Marrakech Accords – is inappropriate. Substantial disaggregation of performance standards is required both technologically and geographically in order to limit over- and under-crediting and close loopholes for non-additional projects. As a lack of reliable and complete data has been and will be a key bottleneck for the development of performance standards, international support for data collection will be indispensable, but costly, and time-consuming. Empirically driven, techno-economic assessments of performance standard stringency levels must be the central task of the future work on standardized methodologies, and should not be sidelined by perceived needs of policy makers to take bold decisions under time pressures.     

Deep structure of the bohemian massif from phase velocities of Rayleigh and Love waves

Summary Phase velocities of Rayleigh and Love waves have been measured between the broadband seismic stations KHC (Kaperské Hory, South Bohemia) and KSP (Ksi, Lower Silesia), a profile that nearly coincides with the Interactional DSS Profile VII. The data for both wave types were separately inverted into models of shear-wave velocity versus depth. Novotný's model KHKS 82[1] for the DSS Profile VII was used as a start model. While the crustal section of Novotný's model is compatible with both of our data sets, our Rayleigh-wave data require smaller shear-wave velocities, on the average by 0.24 km/s, in the top 180 km of the mantle. The average difference between Novotný's model and our Love-wave model in that depth range is only 0.06 km/s. If our identification of the observed Love waves as the fundamental mode is correct, this result indicates the presence of polarization anisotropy in the uppermost mantle.

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U–Pb zircon chronostratigraphy of early-Pliocene ignimbrites from La Pacana, north Chile: implications for the formation of stratified magma chambers

High spatial resolution U–Pb dates of zircons from two consanguineous ignimbrites of contrasting composition, the high-silica rhyolitic Toconao and the overlying dacitic Atana ignimbrites, erupted from La Pacana caldera, north Chile, are presented in this study. Zircons from Atana and Toconao pumice clasts yield apparent ²³⁸U/²⁰⁶Pb ages of 4.11±0.20 Ma and 4.65±0.13 Ma (2σ), respectively. These data combined with previously published geochemical and stratigraphic data, reveal that the two ignimbrites were erupted from a stratified magma chamber. The Atana zircon U–Pb ages closely agree with the eruption age of Atana previously determined by K–Ar dating (4.0±0.1 Ma) and do not support long (>1 Ma) residence times. Xenocrystic zircons were found only in the Toconao bulk ignimbrite, which were probably entrained during eruption and transport. Apparent ²³⁸U/²⁰⁶Pb zircon ages of 13 Ma in these xenocrysts provide the first evidence that the onset of felsic magmatism within the Altiplano–Puna ignimbrite province occurred approximately 3 Myr earlier than previously documented.     

Reviews Monitoring the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: Source Location,edited by Frode Ringdal and Brian L. N. Kennett. Birkhäuser Verlag Basel-Boston-Berlin, 2001, Reprint from Pure and Applied Geophysics (PAGEOPH), Volume 158 (2001), No.1/2, 428 pages

Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica -     

Greenhouse gas emission mitigation plan for the State of Israel: strategies,incentives and reporting

In the context of the negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its accompanying Kyoto Protocol, participating nations have recognized the need for formulating Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). These NAMAs allow countries to take into account their national circumstances and to construct measures to mitigate GHG emissions across economic sectors. Israel has declared to the UN that it would strive to reduce its GHG emissions by 20% in the year 2020 relative to a ‘business as usual' scenario. With its growing population and an expanding economy, the national GHG mitigation plan was developed to draw a course for steering the Israeli economy into a low-carbon future while accommodating continued economic growth. The article describes relevant policy measures, designed to aid in the implementation of the plan and compares them with measures being undertaken by different countries. Emphasis is placed on analysing the progress to date, opportunities and barriers to attaining the ultimate GHG emissions reduction goals. The objective of this article is to contribute to the knowledge base of effective approaches for GHG emissions reduction. We emphasize the integrated approach of planning and implementation that could be especially useful for developing countries or countries with economies in transition, as well as for developed countries. Yet, in the article we argue that NAMAs’ success hinges on structured tracking of progress according to emerging global consensus standards such as the GHG Protocol Mitigation Goals Standard.

Policy relevance:

The study is consistent with the NAMA concept, enabling a country to adopt a ‘climate action plan’ that contributes to its sustainable development, while enabled by technology and being fiscally sound.

The analysis shows that although NAMAs have been framed in terms of projects, policies, and goals, current methodologies allow only the calculation of emission reductions that can be attributed to distinct projects. Currently, no international guidance exists for quantifying emissions reduction from policy-based NAMAs, making it difficult to track and validate progress. This gap could be addressed by an assessment framework that we have tested, as part of a World Resources Institute pilot study for an emerging voluntary global standard.     

Entwurf von Photoelektrischen Rückkopplungsverstärkern mit Vorgeschriebenen Übertragungseigenschaften

Приводится описание фотокомпенсационного усилителя на полупроводниках, предназначенного для усиления слабых выходных сигналов пассивных преобразователей геофизических величин. Шумовые помехи отнесенные к входу усилителя порядка 10^?8 в или 10^?10 а в диапазоне частот 0,01–20Гц. Описывается новый метод, который позволяет создать фотокомпенсационные усилители напряжения или тока с заранее заданными передаточными свойствами (заданной амплитудной или фазовой частотной характеристкой, заданным быстродействием и т.п.). Возможности использования этого метода демонстрируются на двух практических примерах.     

Die Kreide in der Zentralkordillere östlich von Lima (Peru,Südamerika)

Lower and Upper Cretaceous sediments were investigated in the Peruvian Central Cordillera. As in the western facies of Central and Northern Peru, the Goyllarisquisga Group is subdivided into several lithologically different formations, in which sediments were transported from east to west. The area of investigation is situated west of the facies boundary between Marañon geanticline and West Peruvian trough; this indicates that the boundary continues south and does not follow the line Celendin-Rio Palanga as suggested byWilson. The limestones and dolomites of the Santa Formation were deposited in shallow water, possibly with intermittent subaerial exposure. The sandstone of the Farrat Formation are interpreted to be sediments of a west-east transgression; vertically they grade into the limestones of the Pariahuanca-Formation. Facies and thickness of the Chulec and Pariahuanca-Formation are little different from those in neighbouring areas. During deposition of the thick Jumasha Formation, the differences are much more significant, and only comparison with Northwest Peru shows some agreement.