Dynamics of climate extremes in northern Eurasia in the late 20th century

Changes in climatic parameters and in temperature and precipitation extremes in northern Eurasia in the late 20th century are analyzed. A spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies and of a set of indices of climate extremes is presented. Changes in climate extremes show a tendency toward a milder climate, mainly in winter. At the same time, the frost-free period has substantially decreased in the eastern, northern, and central parts of European Russia. In some regions during summer, there is an increase in the frequency of extreme events such as heavy rains, droughts, and sharp cooling. It is shown that the geographic pattern of present-day climate anomalies is linked to variations in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The main mechanism of the current warming in northern Eurasia is a winter intensification of zonal flow linked to the increased frequency of positive anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index.     

Simulation of the Atlantic Ocean seasonal variability, using a quasi-isopycnic model

The paper discusses the data derived from a numerical experiment on the ocean’s response (between the equator and 64°N) to the seasonal variability of the atmospheric forcing (wind and heat flux through the ocean surface). A multilayer (7 layers) non-linear model is used incorporating the upper mixed layer interacting with the internal layers in the regimes of entraining and subduction. The restructuring of the layer composition, the currents and temperature variability, as well as the alternation of the entrainment and subduction regimes are analysed. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Dynamics of the long-period tides

The long-period tides are a tool for understanding oceanic motions at low frequencies and large scales. Here we review observations and theory of the fortnightly, monthly and pole tide constitutents. Observations have been plagued by low signal-to-noise ratios and theory by the complex lateral geometry and great sensitivity to bottom slopes. A new spectral element model is used to compute the oceanic response to tidal forcing at 2-week and monthly periods. The general response is that of a heavily damped (Q ≈ 5) system with both the energy input from the moon and the dissipation strongly localized in space. The high dissipation result is probably generally applicable to all low frequency barotropic oceanic motions. Over much of the ocean, the response has both the character of a large-scale and a superposed Rossby wave-like character, thus vindicating two apparently conflicting earlier interpretations. To the extent that free waves are excited they are consistent with their being dominated by Rossby and topographic Rossby wave components, although gravity modes are also necessarily excited to some degree. In general, a modal representation is not very helpful. The most active regions are the Southern Ocean and the western and northern North Atlantic. These results are stable to changes in geometry, topography, and tide period. On a global average basis, the dynamical response of Mm is closer to equilibrium than is Mf.     

Simulation of Hydrophysical Processes in Coastal Regions of the Sea

In the present work, we generalize the results of our investigations in the field of simulation of hydrophysical and ecological processes in coastal regions of various seas and some closed basins. The developed and applied mathematical models and the results of numerical experiments are briefly analyzed.     

Experimental investigation of forces and geometry of a net cage in uniform flow

A scale model of a flexible circular net with different weights attached to the bottom was tested in a flume tank. Global forces and net deformation were measured for different steady current velocities. Three different sizes of bottom weights were used in the tests. The results from these tests are presented and discussed with the emphasis on the dependency between the forces and the geometry. Comparison is also made to empirical based formulas for calculation of drag and lift forces on net structures. Findings show that i) the forces on, and deformation of a flexible net structure are mutually highly dependent on each other; ii) estimates of global forces on a flexible net structure calculated using simple drag formulas derived from stiff net panel experiments give large errors when compared to experimental measurements; iii) numerical models taking into account the dependency between force and deformation should be used to obtain accurate estimates of forces on flexible net structures; and iv) the forces on a flexible net structure are dependent on Reynolds number, and their dependency are similar to that of a regular cylinder.     

The dynamic behaviour of a river-dominated tidal inlet, River Murray, Australia

Australia's largest river, the River Murray, discharges to the southern ocean through a coastal lagoon and river-dominated tidal inlet. Increased water extractions upstream for irrigation have led to significantly reduced flows at the mouth and, as a result, the area is undergoing rapid change, particularly with regard to the rate at which sediment is being transported into the lagoon. Based on detailed and accurate bathymetric surveys it has been possible to estimate that the rate of lagoon in-filling is of the order of 100,000 m³ per year for the period June 2000 to May 2003, although the actual rate shows significant year to year variability. Dredging of the lagoon commenced in 2000 in an attempt to reverse the trend.In an effort to understand the behaviour of the inlet a one-dimensional numerical model of the inlet has been developed. The model extends the original of van de Kreeke by including a dynamic inlet throat area based on predicted river flows and a sediment transport module to predict the resulting net sediment transport. Comparisons with water level data collected on both the ocean and lagoon sides of the mouth have shown that the model is able to predict the attenuation and lag of the tidal signal reasonably well. The sediment transport model was based on predicted sediment concentrations in the surf zone and was found to predict the rate of sediment in-filling to an acceptable level of accuracy. It is envisaged that the model will be a useful management tool, especially since it is possible to manipulate river discharges to the mouth.     

Radium and lead-210 in marine barite

Measurements of ²²⁶Ra and ²¹⁰Pb in barite samples separated from different depths of a piston core from the eastern equatorial Pacific are reported. ²²⁶Ra is enriched in the barite as would be expected from the chemistries of Ra and Ba; the ${}^{226}\text{Ra}\text{Ba}$ ratio centers around 1.5 · 10¹⁴ atoms/mole. The results suggest that barite is concentrating Ra at a rate comparable to its decay rate, viz. 5.78 · 10^?3 yr^?1. The gross ²¹⁰Pb depletion with respect to ²²⁶Ra is indicative of ²²²Rn loss due to the smallness of the barite crystals.     

A technique for conducting seismic refraction experiments on the ocean bed using bottom shots

A technique has been devised for firing arrays of bottom shots on the ocean bed in depths upto 4000 m or more. Ten kilogram explosive charges are dropped from the surface while the shooting ship is navigated acoustically. They are detonated at preset times by an electronic timer which initiates an electrical detonator, detonating cord and cast PETN/TNT explosive. Ranges to ocean bottom seismographs, and the shot instants, can be calculated from the arrival-time differences of the direct and surface-reflected water waves. The accuracy, which is dependent on water-depth and range, was better than 22 m in range and 14 msec in shot instant for our experiments.     

Casualties in dry bulk shipping (1963–1996)

In recent years, bulk carriers have been identified with high risks of catastrophic structural failure and foundering, and with heavy loss of human life. This study, based upon Lloyd's of London casualty records, identified four risk factors that had significant, independent effect upon the likelihood of a bulk carrier foundering. The risk of foundering increased with the age of the ship, and was related to the ship's flag of registration. Most importantly, however, increased risks were found for heavy cargoes of iron ore and scrap steel or iron, and for trading routes to the Far East and from Europe to North America. Additional safety measures, in particular regarding ship design and high-risk trades, may well be necessary to reduce the high casualty rates.