Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs)

Abstract

The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are a group of 49 of the world's poorest countries. They have contributed least to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) but they are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This is due to their location in some of the most vulnerable regions of the world and their low capacities to adapt to these changes. Adaptation to climate change has become an important policy priority in the international negotiations on climate change in recent years. However, it has yet to become a major policy issue within developing countries, especially the LDCs. This article focuses on two LDCs, namely Bangladesh and Mali, where progress has been made regarding identifying potential adaptation options. For example, Bangladesh already has effective disaster response systems, and strategies to deal with reduced freshwater availability, and Mali has a well-developed programme for providing agro-hydro-meteorological assistance to communities in times of drought. However, much remains to be done in terms of mainstreaming adaptation to climate change within the national policymaking processes of these countries. Policymakers need targeting and, to facilitate this, scientific research must be translated into appropriate language and timescales.     

The radius spectrum of solid grains settling in gaseous giant protoplanets

Growth of grains having different initial sizes (10^?3 cm?≤?r ₀?≤?1 cm) has been investigated by coagulation processes inside gas giant protoplanets, formed by disk instability, in the mass range 0.3 to 10 Jovian masses. In doing so, we have determined distribution of thermodynamic variables inside the protoplanets and using the results we have determined growth of the grains having assumed initial sizes. Regarding the transference of heat inside the protoplanets, we have considered the possible two cases of interest, namely convection and conduction-radiation. The results of our calculation show that growth of the grains depends on protoplanetary masses and on initial states of the protoplanets and eventually all the grains having assumed different initial sizes acquire almost the same distribution in the central regions of respective protoplanets in the respective cases.     

Retrieval of tropical forest biomass information from ALOS PALSAR data

Advanced Land Observing Satellite Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (ALOS PALSAR) data from different observation modes were analysed to determine (1) which observation mode most accurately retrieves tropical forest biomass information and (2) whether different modes, when considered together, yield improved results in comparison to identical data-sets analysed independently. We performed regression analysis to estimate above-ground forest biomass using PALSAR backscatter data for natural and planted forests in south-eastern Bangladesh. The coefficient of determination (r ²) was lower or equal to 0.499 (n = 70) when PALSAR data from different observation modes were separately considered, but increased sharply when one class (rubber) is dropped and average backscatter of fine beam single (FBS) and polrimetric (PLR) modes are used in the analysis. The results presented in this article are useful for both regional and global forest biomass inventories and fixing acquisition modes for planned L-band SAR missions.     

A three-step strategy for generalization of 3D building models based on CityGML specifications

3D building models of the world exhibit multi-scale properties. Different level-of-details (LoDs) are important for different applications. Therefore, generation of multi-scale representation of 3D building models to fulfill the demands of these applications is a generalization problem. In order to generalize 3D buildings, different pieces of information need to be preserved or removed to restrict the amount of data represented on a certain LoD. In this work, a three-step strategy based on simplification, aggregation and reconstruction of generalized buildings represented in City Geography Markup Language (CityGML) is proposed. The minimum length of edges (threshold value) for removal of amount of data is restricted to generalization specifications of CityGML characterized by differing accuracies and minimal dimensions of objects for each LoD. The main part of this paper is simplification of ground plans. For this purpose, a new approach is proposed to restrict number of edges, curves, and corners of ground plan of 3D building model on a certain LoD. Algorithms for simplification with the aim to derive LoD1 from exterior shells of buildings at LoD3 are implemented and tested on a number of buildings of Putrajaya city. The experiments showed that length of edge as threshold value is directly proportional to the size of generalized models.     

A study on selection of probability distributions for at-site flood frequency analysis in Australia

The most direct method of design flood estimation is at-site flood frequency analysis, which relies on a relatively long period of recorded streamflow data at a given site. Selection of an appropriate probability distribution and associated parameter estimation procedure is of prime importance in at-site flood frequency analysis. The choice of the probability distribution for a given application is generally made arbitrarily as there is no sound physical basis to justify the selection. In this study, an attempt is made to investigate the suitability of as many as fifteen different probability distributions and three parameter estimation methods based on a large Australian annual maximum flood data set. A total of four goodness-of-fit tests are adopted, i.e., the Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, Anderson–Darling test, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, to identify the best-fit probability distributions. Furthermore, the L-moments ratio diagram is used to make a visual assessment of the alternative distributions. It has been found that a single distribution cannot be specified as the best-fit distribution for all the Australian states as it was recommended in the Australian rainfall and runoff 1987. The log-Pearson 3, generalized extreme value, and generalized Pareto distributions have been identified as the top three best-fit distributions. It is thus recommended that these three distributions should be compared as a minimum in practical applications when making the final selection of the best-fit probability distribution in a given application in Australia.     

Summer monsoon rainfall scenario over Bangladesh using a high-resolution AGCM

Summer monsoon rainfall was simulated by a global 20 km-mesh atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), focusing on the changes in the summer monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh. Calibration and validation of AGCM were performed over Bangladesh for generating summer monsoon rainfall scenarios. The model-produced summer monsoon rainfall was calibrated with a ground-based observational data in Bangladesh during the period 1979–2003. The TRMM 3B43 V6 data are also used for understanding the model performance. The AGCM output obtained through validation process made it confident to be used for near future and future summer monsoon rainfall projection in Bangladesh. In the present-day (1979–2003) climate simulations, the high-resolution AGCM produces the summer monsoon rainfall better as a spatial distribution over SAARC region in comparison with TRMM but magnitude may be different. Summer monsoon rainfall projection for Bangladesh was experimentally obtained for near future and future during the period 2015–2034 and 2075–2099, respectively. This work reveals that summer monsoon rainfall simulated by a high-resolution AGCM is not directly applicable to application purpose. However, acceptable performance was obtained in estimating summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh after calibration and validation. This study predicts that in near future, summer monsoon rainfall on an average may decrease about ?0.5 % during the period 2015–2034 and future summer monsoon rainfall may increase about 0.4 % during the period 2075–2099.     

Geochemical investigation of selected elements in coastal and riverine sediments from Ube, Kasado, and Suo-Oshima Bays in the western Seto Inland Sea, Southwest Japan

This paper presents the geochemical study of sediments along Ube, Suo-Oshima, and Kasado Bays in the Seto Inland Sea of Japan. We examined the distribution and abundances of 13 elements (As, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, Cr, Sr, Ca, Fe, Ti, P, Mn, and total S) in 40 coastal and river sediment samples, to evaluate the factors controlling their abundances, possible sources, and environmental implications. Average concentrations of As, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, and Cr at Ube were 12, 26, 86, 16, 43, and 92?mg/kg, 6, 25, 31, 8, 9, and 29?mg/kg at Kasado, and 5, 20, 28, 3, 5, and 18?mg/kg at Suo-Oshima, respectively. Average As, Pb, Zn, and Cr concentrations at Ube were comparable or enriched relative to those of the upper continental crust and Japan upper crust, whereas most major elements, Cu, and Ni were depleted at Kasado and Suo-Oshima. Enrichment factor values show low to moderate enrichment of Zn, Ni, and Cr, whereas As and Pb show significant contamination at some sites, suggesting contributions from anthropogenic sources. Anthropogenic contributions of most metals mainly originate from natural processes; however, As and Pb ranges of 73–79 and 66–81?%, respectively, confirm their anthropogenic contribution. Factor analysis and correlation matrices suggest that elevated metal concentrations at Ube, especially in samples located in the river basin, may be controlled by Fe–Mn oxy-hydroxides. Deposition of metals at Kasado and Suo-Oshima might be controlled by non-ferrous metal (i.e., aluminosilicates), sediment grain size, or source rock composition (granite and gneiss).     

Sea Level Changes Along Bangladesh Coast in Relation to the Southern Oscillation Phenomenon

Interannual variations of sea level along the Bangladesh coast are quite pronounced and often dominate the long-term sea level trends that are taking place. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) induced variation is an important component of interannual mode of variations. The present article deals with the relationship between the sea level variations along the Bangladesh coast and the Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The mean tide level data of monsoon season (June to September) pertaining to Hiron Point (in Sundarbans) and Char Changa (on the mouth of Meghna River) have been analyzed and correlated to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The annual variation of mean tide level in the coastal areas of Bangladesh reveals that the tide level reaches its peak during the monsoon season. The maximum tide level during the calendar year is recorded in August. Thus, it is not surprising that the inundation of the coastal belt of Bangladesh due to the floods is most common during the summer monsoon season, especially from July to September. Therefore, the sea level variations during the monsoon are of paramount importance to Bangladesh. The results of the present study show that both at Hiron Point and Char Changa there is a substantial difference between the mean tide level during the El Niño and La Niña monsoons. The mean tide level at Hiron Point is higher by about 5 cm during August of La Niña years as compared to that during the El Niño years. The difference at Char Changa, which is located at the mouth of Meghna River, is much higher. This is probably due to the increased fresh water discharge into the Meghna River during La Niña years. Thus at the time of crossing of a monsoon depression, the chances of widespread inundation are higher during a La Nin~a year as compared to that during an El Niño year. The Correlation Coefficients (CCs) between Mean Tide Levels (MTLs) at Hiron Point and Char Changa and the SOI during September (at the end of monsoon) are +0.33 and +0.39 respectively. These CCs are statistically significant at 90% and 95% levels, respectively. These results may find applications in the preparedness programs for combating sea level associated disasters in Bangladesh.     

On the possible origin of X-rays in long laboratory sparks

In this paper, based on theoretical estimation of the achievable electric fields during the physical development process of a long spark under different conditions, we show that the encounter of negative and positive streamer fronts just before the final breakdown is one scenario, under which the observed X-ray bursts in long sparks is highly possible. Our calculations show that for example in an 80 cm long rod–sphere air gap at atmospheric pressure with negative lightning impulse breakdown voltage of about 925 kV, electrons are accelerated to values in the range of 100–300 keV during the encounter. Subsequently, these electrons gain more energy moving through the potential gradient of the positive streamer region. The total gain of energy by electrons may reach 300–500 keV. The results also show that negative discharges can produce more energetic electrons than positive. If the suggested mechanism of X-ray production in long sparks is correct, then the X-ray burst may consist of several pulses closely spaced in time. Time resolved photography in simultaneous measurement of X-rays would be able to confirm this prediction.     

Inversion of Gravity Data for Imaging of a Sediment-basement Interface: A Case Study in the Northwestern Part of Bangladesh

Gravity data collected by the Geological Survey of Bangladesh are processed and interpreted for imaging of a sediment-basement interface over the northwestern part of Bangladesh. The observed gravity data are processed for discriminating gravitational fields contributed subtly from the shallow basement topographic feature with the twelve nodal piecewise cubic polynomial–based finite–element approach. In spectral analysis, the presence of a widely spread shallow basement feature has been detected and interpretation of gravity data using a two-dimensional gravity inversion technique indicates that its depth ranges from 0.041 km to 0.570 km relative to ground surface. In the northern part of the study area, the inferred basement configuration shows a general depression of the basement in the Takurgaon-Panchagar and Lalmonirhat districts and reaches a maximum depth of about 0.570 km. In the Nilphamari district and its southwestern part, the basement occurs at the most shallow depth due to its upliftment. However, the estimated sediment-basement interface depths are compared with the borehole and other geophysical interpretative information and are found to be consistent.