On the possible hazard on the major cities caused by asteroid impact in the Pacific ocean

Semi-quantitative investigation is made of hazard expected from an asteroidal impact in the Pacific. An impact ofd (diameter) = 200 m asteroid has a probability of hitting somewhere in the Pacific once in 15000 y. By carrying out a Monte Carlo simulation, such an impact, on average, is shown to create a tsunami as high as 16, 14, 15, and 21 m at Japan, Taiwan, Shanghai and Hawaii, respectively. Wooden houses, stone and brick houses, and reinforced concrete buildings are likely to be demolished by tsunamis of height 2, 7 and 20 m respectively. Thus, there is a probability of 1% or so that most of the artificial constructions on the coast lines of the Pacific be destroyed in the next century by an asteroidal impact.     

Radial velocities of the components of Trapezium type multiple stellar systems. II

Translated fromAstrofizika, Vol. 37, No. 4, 1994.     

Transient response of a circular cavity in a poroelastic medium

This paper considers the transient response of a pressurized long cylindrical cavity in an infinite poroelastic medium. To obtain transient solutions, Biot's equations for poroelastodynamics are specialized for this problem. A set of exact general solutions for radial displacement, stresses, pore pressure and discharge are derived in the Laplace transform space by using analytical techniques. Solutions are presented for three different types of prescribed transient radial pressures acting on the surface of a permeable as well as an impermeable cavity surface. Time domain solutions are obtained by inverting Laplace domain solutions using a reliable numerical scheme. A detailed parametric study is presented to illustrate the influence of poroelastic material parameters and hydraulic boundary conditions on the response of the medium. Comparisons are also presented with the corresponding ideal elastic solutions to portray the poroelastic effects. It is noted that the maximum radial displacement and hoop stress at the cavity surface are substantially higher than the classical static solutions and differ considerably from the transient elastic solutions. Time histories and radial variations of displacement, hoop stress, pore pressure and fluid discharge corresponding to a cavity in two representative poroelastic materials are also presented.     

Simulation of double cold cores of the 35°N section in the Yellow Sea with a wave-tide-circulation coupled model

Based on the MASNUM wave-tide-circulation coupled numerical model, the temperature structure along 35°N in the Yellow Sea was simulated and compared with the observations. One of the notable features of the temperature structure along 35°N section is the double cold cores phenomena during spring and summer. The double cold cores refer to the two cold water centers located near 122°E and 125°E from the depth of 30m to bottom. The formation, maintenance and disappearance of the double cold cores are discussed. At least two reasons make the temperature in the center (near 123°E) of the section higher than that near the west and east shores in winter. One reason is that the water there is deeper than the west and east sides so its heat content is higher. The other is invasion of the warm water brought by the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) during winter. This temperature pattern of the lower layer (from 30m to bottom) is maintained through spring and summer when the upper layer (0 to 30m) is heated and strong thermocline is formed. Large zonal span of the 35°N section (about 600 km) makes the cold cores have more opportunity to survive. The double cold cores phenomena disappears in early autumn when the west cold core vanishes first with the dropping of the thermocline position. Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No. G1999043809) and the National Science Foundation of China (No. 49736190).     

The New Multichannel Radiospectrograph ARTEMIS-IV/HECATE, of the University of Athens

We present the new solar radiospectrograph of the University of Athensoperating at the Thermopylae Station since 1996. Observations cover thefrequency range from 110 to 688 MHz. The radiospectrograph has a 7-meterparabolic antenna and two receivers operating in parallel. One is a sweepfrequency receiver and the other a multichannel acousto-optical receiver.The data acquisition system consists of a front-end VME based subsystem anda Sun Sparc-5 workstation connected through Ethernet. The two subsystems areoperated using the VxWorks real-time package. The daily operation is fullyautomated: pointing of the antenna to the sun, starting and stopping theobservations at pre-set times, data acquisition, data compression by`silence suppression', and archiving on DAT tapes. The instrument can beused either by itself to study the onset and evolution of solar radio bursts or in conjunction with other instruments including theNançay Decametric Array and the WIND/WAVES RAD1 and RAD2 low frequencyreceivers to study associated interplanetary phenomena.     

Long-term seismicity of Istanbul and of the Marmara Sea region

We examine the long-term seismicity of the Marmara Sea region in Turkey over a period of twenty centuries to attempt to answer two questions: (1) how well recorded in history is the earthquake activity of this region? and (2) does seismicity over this long period of time differ from that over the present century? We study this densely-populated and fast-developing region because it is one of the most tectonically active regions on the continents that appears today to be relatively quiescent.     

Polarimetric observations of pulsating variable stars

Results are presented for polarimetric observations of 17 red giants and supergiants, of which nine are long-period Mira variables, five are semiregular variables (SR), and three are slowly fluctuating variables (Lb). Light polarization is detected for eight stars, seven of them for the first time.Translated fromAstrofizika, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 385–391, July–September, 1996.     

Dynamical History of the Earth–Moon System

Differential equations describing the tidal evolution of the earth's rotation and of the lunar orbital motion are presented in a simple close form. The equations differ in form for orbits fixed to the terrestrial equator and for orbits with the nodes precessing along the ecliptic due to solar perturbations. Analytical considerations show that if the contemporary lunar orbit were equatorial the evolution would develop from an unstable geosynchronous orbit of the period about 4.42 h (in the past) to a stable geosynchronous orbit of the period about 44.8 days (in the future). It is also demonstrated that at the contemporary epoch the orbital plane of the fictitious equatorial moon would be unstable in the Liapunov's sense, being asymptotically stable at early stages of the evolution. Evolution of the currently near-ecliptical lunar orbit and of the terrestrial rotation is traced backward in time by numerical integration of the evolutional equations. It is confirmed that about 1.8 billion years ago a critical phase of the evolution took place when the equatorial inclination of the moon reached small values and the moon was in a near vicinity of the earth. Before the critical epoch t _cr two types of the evolution are possible, which at present cannot be unambiguously distinguished with the help of the purely dynamical considerations. In the scenario that seems to be the most realistic from the physical point of view, the evolution also has started from a geosynchronous equatorial lunar orbit of the period 4.19 h. At t < t _cr the lunar orbit has been fixed to the precessing terrestrial equator by strong perturbations from the earth's flattening and by tidal effects; at the critical epoch the solar perturbations begin to dominate and transfer the moon to its contemporary near-ecliptical orbit which evolves now to the stable geosynchronous state. Probably this scenario is in favour of the Darwin's hypothesis about originating the moon by its separation from the earth. Too much short time scale of the evolution in this model might be enlarged if the dissipative Q factor had somewhat larger values in the past than in the present epoch. Values of the length of day and the length of month, estimated from paleontological data, are confronted with the results of the developed model.