Backtracking drifting objects using surface currents from high-frequency (HF) radar technology

In this work, the benefits of high-frequency (HF) radar ocean observation technology for backtracking drifting objects are analysed. The HF radar performance is evaluated by comparison of trajectories between drifter buoys versus numerical simulations using a Lagrangian trajectory model. High-resolution currents measured by a coastal HF radar network combined with atmospheric fields provided by numerical models are used to backtrack the trajectory of two dataset of surface-drifting buoys: group I (with drogue) and group II (without drogue). A methodology based on optimization methods is applied to estimate the uncertainty in the trajectory simulations and to optimize the search area of the backtracked positions. The results show that, to backtrack the trajectory of the buoys in group II, both currents and wind fields were required. However, wind fields could be practically discarded when simulating the trajectories of group I. In this case, the optimal backtracked trajectories were obtained using only HF radar currents as forcing. Based on the radar availability data, two periods ranging between 8 and 10?h were selected to backtrack the buoy trajectories. The root mean squared error (RMSE) was found to be 1.01?km for group I and 0.82?km for group II. Taking into account these values, a search area was calculated using circles of RMSE radii, obtaining 3.2 and 2.11?km² for groups I and II, respectively. These results show the positive contribution of HF radar currents for backtracking drifting objects and demonstrate that these data combined with atmospheric models are of value to perform backtracking analysis of drifting objects.     

Low‐P melting of metapelitic rocks and the role of H2O: Insights from phase equilibria modelling

Water‐fluxed melting has long been thought to have a minor influence on the thermal and chemical structure of the crust. We report here on amphibolite facies metasedimentary rocks from the 490–450 Ma Famatinian Orogen, in northwest Argentina, that have undergone water‐fluxed incongruent biotite melting at relatively low temperature, which have produced and lost a significant volume of melt. The protoliths consist of the turbiditic Puncoviscana Formation (Neoproterozoic to Early Cambrian). The field area exhibits a condensed metamorphic field gradient, from greenschist to amphibolite facies suprasolidus conditions, recording a low pressure almost isobaric path, reaching peak conditions estimated at 700°C at 4 kbar. Thermodynamic modelling in the MnNCKFMASHTO system is applied to investigate melting at such low pressure as a function of water content. Calculations using a typical turbidite composition show how small amounts of added free H₂O may increase significantly the melt fraction with little or no change in either the melt or residual phase compositions. They indicate negligible difference in normative An–Ab–Or proportions and ferromagnesian contents between melts derived by dehydration and water‐fluxed melts. The same is true for the content of H₂O dissolved in melts, which remains constant and the melt produced is granitic whether or not aqueous fluids are present. Thus, neither the residue nor the melt composition are indicators of the presence of aqueous fluids during anatexis. Recognizing the impact of small additions of H₂O to an anatectic terrane may therefore be difficult. The most significant change related to water‐fluxing is the relative proportions of minerals and melt fraction, rather than the actual mineral assemblage. The modal proportion of feldspar decreased while those of cordierite and biotite increased in the residual assemblages, as <5 mol.% of free H₂O was added. The impact of this addition is to more than double the proportion of water‐undersaturated melt to 25–30 mol.%. We have also developed a simple way to estimate how much melt a residual rock has lost, if the compositional trends of the protoliths are known. In summary, we find that even though the addition of small amounts of free H₂O impacts significantly on rock fertility, there is little obvious record in the field. The combined application of careful petrological investigation and thermodynamic modelling is the key to identify the influence of aqueous fluids, and exploit systems that became open not only to fluid influx but also to the extraction of melt.     

Multi-spacecraft Observations of CIR-Associated Ion Increases During the Ulysses 2007 Ecliptic Crossing

The period between 21 June and 8 October, 2007 (Carrington rotations 2058 to 2061), comprising the Ulysses ecliptic plane crossing, was characterized by low solar activity. Excluding the small solar energetic particle events observed during July, the ion increases observed in the inner heliosphere between 100?keV/n and 10?MeV/n were associated with Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs). In this work, we investigate CIR-related ion increases using multipoint observations from Ulysses, ACE, and the twin STEREO spacecraft. The ballistic backmapping technique has been used to correlate in situ observations of these spacecraft and remote-sensing observations of coronal holes. Although the radial, longitudinal and latitudinal separation of the spacecraft (except Ulysses) are relatively small, we find discrepancies when a detailed comparison of narrow structures like stream interfaces and CIR-associated shocks is performed. Therefore we concentrate on the two CIR events from day 5 to day 10 of August 2007 and from day 25 to day 31 of August 2007, which lend themselves to a more undisturbed comparison. Using the multi-spacecraft measurements we could determine a radial gradient of 230±30% AU^?1, which is consistent with previous results by van Hollebeke et al. (J. Geophys. Res. 83, 4723, 1978) of ～?350% AU^?1 using Helios and Pioneer data.

     

The ecological fallacy in a time series context: evidence from Spanish regional unemployment rates

The ecological fallacy (EF) is a common problem regional scientists have to deal with when using aggregated data in their analyses. Although there is a wide number of studies considering different aspects of this problem, little attention has been paid to the potential negative effects of the EF in a time series context. Using Spanish regional unemployment data, this paper shows that EF effects are not only observed at the cross-section level, but also in a time series framework. The empirical evidence obtained shows that analytical regional configurations are the least susceptible to time effects relative to both normative and random regional configurations, while normative configurations are an improvement over random ones.

Empirical ground-motion relations using moderate earthquakes recorded by Medellín–Aburrá Valley (Colombia) strong-motion networks

We tested attenuation relations obtained for different regions of the world to verify their suitability to predict strong-motion data recorded by Medellín and Aburrá Valley Accelerographic Networks. We used as comparison criteria, the average of the difference between the observed and the predicted data as a function of epicenter distance and its standard deviation. We also used the approach developed by Sherbaum et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 94:2164–2185, 2004) that provides a method to evaluate the overall goodness-of-fit of ground-motion prediction equations. The predictive models selected use a generic focal depth. We found that this parameter has an important influence in the ground-motion predictions and must be taken into account as an independent variable. We also found important to characterize the local soil amplification to improve the attenuation relations. We found empirical relations for peak horizontal acceleration PGA and velocity PGV based on the Kamiyama and Yanagisawa (Soils Found 26:16–32, 1986) approach. $$\begin{aligned} \log _{10} (PGA)=0.5886M_L -1.0902\log _{10}(R)-0.0035H+C_{st}\pm 0.\text{29} \end{aligned}$$ $$\begin{aligned} \log _{10} (PGV)=0.7255M_L -1.8812\log _{10}(R)-0.0016H+C_{st}\pm 0.36 \end{aligned}$$ where PGA is measured in cm/s $^{2}$ and PGV in cm/s, $M_{L}$ is local magnitude in the range 2.8–6.5, $R$ is epicentral distance up to 290 km, $H$ is focal depth in km and $C_{st}$ is a coefficient that accounts for the site response due to soil conditions of each recording station. The introduction of focal depth and local site conditions as independent variables, minimize the residuals and the dispersion of the predicted data. We conclude that $H$ and $C_{st}$ are sensitive parameters, having a strong influence on the strong-motion predictions. Using the same functional form, we also propose an empirical relation for the root mean square acceleration a $_\mathrm{rms}$ : $$\begin{aligned} \log _{10} \left( {a_{rms} } \right)=0.4797M_L -1.1665\log _{10} (R)-0.00201H+C_{st}\pm 0.40 \end{aligned}$$ where a $_\mathrm{rms}$ is measured in cm/s $^{2}$ , from the S-wave arrival and using a window length equal to the rupture duration. The other variables are the same as those for PGA and PGV. The site correction coefficients $C_{st}$ found for PGA, PGV and a $_\mathrm{rms}$ show a similar trend indicating a good correlation with the soil conditions of the recording sites.     

A Two-Day Case Study: Comparison of Turbulence Data from an Unmanned Aircraft System with a Model Chain for Complex Terrain

The airborne measurement platform MASC-3 (Multi-Purpose Airborne Sensor Carrier) is used for measurements over a forested escarpment in the Swabian Alps to evaluate the wind field. Data from flight legs between 20 and 200 m above the ground on two consecutive days with uphill (westerly) flow in September 2018 are analyzed. In the lowest 140 m above the ground a speed-up is found with increased turbulence and changes in wind direction directly over the escarpment, whereas in the lowest 20 to 50 m above the ground a deceleration of the flow is measured. Additionally, simulation results from a numerical model chain based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and an OpenFOAM (Open Source Field Operation and Manipulation) model, developed for complex terrain, are compared to the data captured by MASC-3. The models and measurements compare well for the mean wind speed and inclination angle.

     

Geomagnetic field intensity between 70 000 and 130 000 years B.P. from a volcanic sequence on La Réunion, Indian Ocean

A detailed paleointensity study was made of a sequence of 70 successive lava flows of the Piton des Neiges volcano on the island of La Réunion (Indian Ocean). Radiometric dating brackets the age of this sequence between 130 ± 3 ka and 72 ± 3 ka. Rock magnetic investigations show that titanomagnetites in the pseudo single domain range are the main magnetic carrier of the Natural Remanent Magnetisation (NRM). Over 350 samples were used for paleointensity determinations carried out with the Thellier method in vacuum or in an argon atmosphere. Of these, 89 samples yielded reliable results, with within-flow scatter often lower than 20%. These results indicate that the geomagnetic field intensity has varied at La Réunion between 13 and 65 μT during the period of time explored. The average value, 42 μT, is higher than the present field at La Réunion (35 μT). The results from the upper part of the section are consistent with previous results obtained for the 82–98 ka period also at La Réunion [1] and document a broad low around 95 ka. not associated with large directional changes. On a larger geographic scale, the paleointensity values from La Réunion are significantly higher than those obtained from Mount Etna [2]. Precise comparison is, however, difficult because of the lack of detail in the Etna results. In the lower part of the section, a marked intensity low, coinciding with significant deviation from the dipole field direction is observed at 115 ka and could correspond to the end of the Blake event.     

Evaluation of drill cuttings in prediction of penetration rate by using coarseness index and mean particle size in percussive drilling

Penetration rate of rocks is influenced by geological parameters, machine parameters and operating parameters. This paper presents a study on the coarseness index (CI) and mean particle size (d) to evaluate the penetration rate (PR) in percussive drilling in a limestone and in a marl quarry. The coarseness index was determined from sieve analysis. The mean particle size (d) and specific surface area (SSA) were determined by using Rossin-Rammler-Sperling (RRS) graph for each hole samples. The relationships between PR and CI, d, SSA were investigated by regression analysis. The best lines were selected in these graphs. Reliable relations were found between penetration rate and coarseness index and mean particle size. Finally, it was seen that the coarseness index and mean particle size could be used in evaluating the penetration rate in percussive drilling operations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.