ACE Observations of the Bastille Day 2000 Interplanetary Disturbances

We present ACE observations for the six-day period encompassing the Bastille Day 2000 solar activity. A high level of transient activity at 1 AU, including ICME-driven shocks, magnetic clouds, shock-accelerated energetic particle populations, and solar energetic ions and electrons, are described. We present thermal ion composition signatures for ICMEs and magnetic clouds from which we derive electron temperatures at the source of the disturbances and we describe additional enhancements in some ion species that are clearly related to the transient source. We describe shock acceleration of 0.3–2.0 MeV nucl⁻¹ protons and minor ions and the relative inability of some of the shocks to accelerate significant energetic ion populations near 1 AU. We report the characteristics of < 20 MeV nucl⁻¹ solar energetic ions and < 0.32 MeV electrons and attempt to relate the release of energetic electrons to particular source regions.     

Effects of driving and subsequent consolidation on behaviour of driven piles

The effects and simulation of driving of structures (piles) into saturated soil media are discussed, and procedures for numerical simulation of driving are proposed. Consolidation caused by changes in stresses and in pore water pressures in the soil mass due to the driving is solved by using a finite element procedure. The changes in stresses and pore water pressures due to driving are obtained on the basis of the cavity expansion approach, and are introduced in the finite element procedure as initial conditions. Stresses and deformations around a pile as consolidation proceeds are plotted and related to the quantities such as a wall friction, and point and total loads relevant to analysis and design.     

Long-Term Rainfall Variability in the Eastern Gangetic Plain in Relation to Global Temperature Change

India’s annual weather cycle consists mainly of wet and dry periods with monsoonal rains being one of the significant wet periods that shows strong spatiotemporal variability. This study includes the climatological characteristics, fluctuation features, and periodic cycles of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall of seven river basins across the eastern Gangetic Plain (EGP) using the longest possible instrumental area-averaged monthly rainfall series (1829–2012). Understanding the relationships between these parameters and global tropospheric temperature changes and El Niño and La Niña climatic signals is also attempted.

Climatologically, mean annual rainfall in the EGP varies from 1070.5?mm in the Tons River basin to 1508.6?mm in the Subarnarekha River basin. The highest rainfall in the EGP occurs during monsoon (1188?mm). The annual rainfall in all river basins and monsoon rainfall in four river basins is normally distributed. Annual and monsoonal rainfall in the Brahmani and Son River basins show a significant decreasing long-term trend. Over the last 20 years, annual rainfall in all river basins and monsoonal rainfall in five river basins show a decreasing trend. The power spectra for all rainfall series are characterized by consistent significant wavelength peaks at 3–5 years, 10–20 years, 40 years, and more than 80 years. Short-term fluctuations with a period less than 10 years is the major contributor to total variance in annual and/or monsoon rainfall (77.6%), followed by decadal variations with a period of 10–30 years (13.1%) and a long-term trend with a period greater than 30 years (9.3%).Temperature and thickness gradients from the Tibet–Himalaya–Karakoram–Hindu Kush highlands to eight strong highs show a significant correlation with rainfall during the onset and withdrawal phases of summer monsoon in the EGP.     

Drought forecasting using stochastic models

Drought is a global phenomenon that occurs virtually in all landscapes causing significant damage both in natural environment and in human lives. Due to the random nature of contributing factors, occurrence and severity of droughts can be treated as stochastic in nature. Early indication of possible drought can help to set out drought mitigation strategies and measures in advance. Therefore drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of water resource systems. In this study, linear stochastic models known as ARIMA and multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were used to forecast droughts based on the procedure of model development. The models were applied to forecast droughts using standardized precipitation index (SPI) series in the Kansabati river basin in India, which lies in the Purulia district of West Bengal state in eastern India. The predicted results using the best models were compared with the observed data. The predicted results show reasonably good agreement with the actual data, 1–2 months ahead. The predicted value decreases with increase in lead-time. So the models can be used to forecast droughts up to 2 months of lead-time with reasonably accuracy.     

Projected changes in South Asian summer monsoon by multi-model global warming experiments

South Asian summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall simulation and its potential future changes are evaluated in a multi-model ensemble of global coupled climate models outputs under World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (WCRP CMIP3) dataset. The response of South Asian summer monsoon to a transient increase in future anthropogenic radiative forcing is investigated for two time slices, middle (2031–2050) and end of the twenty-first century (2081–2100), in the non-mitigated Special Report on Emission Scenarios B1, A1B and A2 .There is large inter-model variability in the simulation of spatial characteristics of seasonal monsoon precipitation. Ten out of the 25 models are able to simulate space–time characteristics of the South Asian monsoon precipitation reasonably well. The response of these selected ten models has been examined for projected changes in seasonal monsoon rainfall. The multi-model ensemble of these ten models projects a significant increase in monsoon precipitation with global warming. The substantial increase in precipitation is observed over western equatorial Indian Ocean and southern parts of India. However, the monsoon circulation weakens significantly under all the three climate change experiments. Possible mechanisms for the projected increase in precipitation and for precipitation–wind paradox have been discussed. The surface temperature over Asian landmass increases in pre-monsoon months due to global warming and heat low over northwest India intensifies. The dipole snow configuration over Eurasian continent strengthens in warmer atmosphere, which is conducive for the enhancement in precipitation over Indian landmass. No notable changes have been projected in the El Niño–Monsoon relationship, which is useful for predicting interannual variations of the monsoon.     

Framboidal — colloform — recrystallised pyrite in the granitoids of Wahkyn area,West Khasi hills,Meghalaya

Petrographic studies of Proterozoic pyriteferous granitoids forming basement for upper cretaceous Mahadek sediments from Wahkyn area reveal interesting textural peculiarities of Pyrite. These pyrites also reveal interesting structural peculiarities. The three textural pyrite varieties found in the granitoids are: framboidal, colloform and recrystallised which appear both as composite aggregate as well as independent units. Various textures and variation in reflectivity, microhardness and elemental distribution of the pyrites are described. Average Co/Ni ratio along with the textural manifestation of these pyrites attests their sedimentary origin.     

Geology, petrochemistry, and genesis of the bimodal lavas of Osham Hill, Saurashtra, northwestern Deccan Traps

The Saurashtra region in the northwestern Deccan continental flood basalt province (India) is notable for compositionally diverse volcano-plutonic complexes and abundant rhyolites and granophyres. A lava flow sequence of rhyolite-pitchstone-basaltic andesite is exposed in Osham Hill in western Saurashtra. The Osham silicic lavas are Ba-poor and with intermediate Zr contents compared to other Deccan rhyolites. The Osham silicic lavas are enriched in the light rare earth elements, and have ε_Nd (t = 65 Ma) values between −3.1 and −6.5 and initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of 0.70709-0.70927. The Osham basaltic andesites have initial ε_Nd values between +2.2 and −1.3, and initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of 0.70729-0.70887. Large-ion-lithophile element concentrations and Sr isotopic ratios may have been affected somewhat by weathering; notably, the Sr isotopic ratios of the silicic and mafic rocks overlap. However, the Nd isotopic data indicate that the silicic lavas are significantly more contaminated by continental lithosphere than the mafic lavas. We suggest that the Osham basaltic andesites were derived by olivine gabbro fractionation from low-Ti picritic rocks of the type found throughout Saurashtra. The isotopic compositions, and the similar Al₂O₃ contents of the Osham silicic and mafic lavas, rule out an origin of the silicic lavas by fractional crystallization of mafic liquids, with or without crustal assimilation. As previously proposed for some Icelandic rhyolites, and supported here by MELTS modelling, the Osham silicic lavas may have been derived by partial melting of hot mafic intrusions emplaced at various crustal depths, due to heating by repetitively injected basalts. The absence of mixing or mingling between the rhyolitic and basaltic andesite lavas of Osham Hill suggests that they reached the surface via separate pathways.     

Dynamics of dissolved organic carbon in the northwestern Indian Ocean

We report here the non-conservative behaviour of DOC in the northwestern Indian Ocean by studying this parameter together with other carbon and nitrogen components. This contrasts with earlier reports of conservative behaviour. Concentrations of DOC, 3–4 times higher than those reported earlier, were found to decrease northward from the equator. Total carbon dioxide (TCO₂) increases in proportion of the oxygen utilized, thus revealing the dominant biological role in the carbon turnover. The CO₂ added through dissolution of biogenic debris is found to decrease southward, in general. Decomposition of organic material contributes at least 64% to the CO₂ addition that increases southward, the rest being from dissolution of skeletal material. Evidence is provided for the utilization of oxygen and nitrate for DOC oxidative decomposition. Accumulation of DOC without its complete oxidation to CO₂ could be the main reason for the TCO₂ decrease in southern Arabian Sea. Relationships of DOC with nitrification and denitrification processes show that the microbial population plays a major role in regulating the DOC contents in the seawater of this region. Consumption/decomposition by denitrifying bacteria and other micro-organisms responsible for nitrogen cycling in the sea are found to be intimately related to the DOC dynamics and are responsible for decreased DOC concentrations in the north. DOC accumulation in the southern Arabian Sea seems to facilitate bacterio-particulate aggregate formation and consequent nitrification, which results in excess nitrate. Application of a one-dimensional advection-diffusion model to the present data set provides evidence for the non-conservative nature of DOC in the Arabian Sea.     

Monitoring Measurements from the Jason-1 Microwave Radiometer and Independent Validation with GPS

The Jason-1 Microwave Radiometer (JMR) provides measurements of the wet troposphere content to correct the altimetric range measurement for the associated path delay. Various techniques are used to monitor the JMR wet troposphere path delays, with measurements of zenith troposphere content from terrestrial GPS sites used as an independent verification technique. Results indicate that an unexpected offset of approximately +4.1 ± 1.2 mm (drier) emerged in the JMR measurements of wet path delay between cycles 28-32 of the Jason-1 mission, and that the measurements may be drifting at a rate of approximately -0.5 mm/year. These anomalies are shown to be caused by a -0.7 K offset in 23.8 GHz brightness temperatures between cycles 28-32, and a 0.16 ± 0.04 and -0.45 ± 0.08 K/year drift in the 18.7 and 34.0 GHz brightness temperatures, respectively. Intercomparison of the 3-Hz JMR brightness temperature measurements show that they have been drifting with respect to each other, and that a dependence on yaw-steering regime is present in these measurements. An offset of 0.5 m/s between cycles 28-32 and a drift of approximately 0.5 m/s/year in the JMR wind speed measurements is also associated with these anomalies in the 1-Hz brightness temperatures. These errors in JMR wind speeds presently have a negligible impact on the retrieved JMR path delays.