Developing climate change scenarios for Tamil Nadu, India using MAGICC/SCENGEN

This paper describes the projection of climate change scenarios under increased greenhouse gas emissions, using the results of atmospheric-ocean general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 dataset. A score is given to every model based on global and regional performance. Four out of 20 general circulation models (GCMs) were selected based on skill in predicting observed annual temperature and precipitation conditions. The ensemble of these four models shows superiority over the individual model scores. These models were subjected to increases in future anthropogenic radiative forcings for constructing climate change scenarios. Future climate scenarios for Tamil Nadu were developed with MAGICC/SCENGEN software. Model results show both temperature and precipitation increases under increased greenhouse gas scenarios. Northeast and northwest parts of Tamil Nadu show a greater increase in temperature and precipitation. Seasonally, the maximum rise in temperature occurred during the MAM season, followed by DJF, JJA, and SON. Decreasing trends of precipitation were observed during DJF and MAM.     

Location-specific weather predictions for Sriharikota (13.72°N, 80.22°E) through numerical atmospheric models during satellite launch campaigns

Accurate knowledge of different meteorological parameters over a launch site is very crucial for efficient management of satellite launch operations. Local weather over the Indian satellite launch site located at Sriharikota High Altitude Range (SHAR: 13.72°N, 80.22°E) is very much dependent on the atmospheric circulation prevailing over the Bay of Bengal oceanic region and topography-induced convective activities. With a view to providing severe weather threat prediction in terms of launch commit criteria (LCC), two numerical atmospheric models namely high-resolution regional model (HRM) and advanced regional prediction system (ARPS) are made operational over SHAR in a synoptic and mesoscale domain, respectively. In the present research article, two launch campaigns through Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV-C11 and PSLV-C12) when contrasting weather conditions prevailed over the launch site are chosen for demonstration of potential of two models in providing location-specific short-to-medium-range weather predictions meeting the needs of LCC. In the case of PSLV-C11 campaign, when the launch site underwent frequent thundershower-associated rainfall, ARPS model–derived meteorological fields were effectively used in prediction of probability of the wet spells. On the other hand, Bay of Bengal underwent severe cyclonic storm during PSLV-C12 campaign, and its formation was reasonable captured through HRM simulations. It is concluded that a combination of HRM and ARPS provide reliable short-to-medium-range weather prediction over SHAR, which has got profound importance in launch-related activities.     

On the linear analysis of unstable radiative shocks

We study the stability properties of strong hydrodynamic shocks and their associated radiative cooling layers. We explore a range of conditions which covers both molecular and atomic gas impacting against a rigid wall. Through a linear analysis employing a cooling function of the form  Λ∝ρ^β T ^α  and a specific heat ratio of γ, we determine the overstability regime in the parameter space consisting of  α, β  and γ. In general, if α is sufficiently low, the fundamental mode leads to long-wavelength growing oscillations. For the fundamental mode, we find that values of γ corresponding to molecular hydrodynamics lead to a significantly restricted instability range for α in comparison with the shocks in a monatomic medium. The conditions for the growth of higher-order modes, however, are relatively unchanged. This predicts that certain molecular shocks are prone to displaying signatures of small-scale rapid variability. Dissociative shocks, however, can be subject to a large-scale overstability if subsequent molecule formation in the cooling layer abruptly increases the cooling rate. In contrast to the dynamical rippling overstability, the cooling overstability is suppressed for a sufficiently low specific heat ratio.     

Monitoring of deforestation and land use changes (1925–2012) in Idukki district,Kerala, India using remote sensing and GIS

The studies on forest cover change can reveal the status of forests and facilitate for its conservation planning. Idukki is the largest district in the state of Kerala having a total geographical area of 5019 km². The objectives of the present study are to map forest cover in Idukki district using multi-temporal remote sensing data (1975, 1990, 2001 and 2012) and topographical maps (1925), to analyze the trends in deforestation and land use changes. Overall statistics for the period of 1925 indicate that about 4675.7 km² (93.2 %) of the landscape was under forest. The forest cover in 2012 was estimated as 2613.4 km² (52.1 %). Recently, due to the implementation of policies and protection efforts, the rate of deforestation was greatly reduced. The commencement of hydroelectric projects during 1925–1990 responsible for an increase of area under water bodies by inundating other land uses. The long term analysis shows agricultural area been decreasing and commercial plantations been increasing in the district. There has been a significant increase in the area of plantations from 1236.2 km² (1975) to 1317.3 km² (2012).     

Revealing the coastal event-history of the Andaman Islands (Bay of Bengal) during the Holocene using radiocarbon and OSL dating

Earthquakes that trigger tsunamis are of great geological, ecological and socio-economic importance. The knowledge of the recurrence interval of these events will give information about the hazard for a region. Coastal sediments on the Andaman Islands located in the eastern Bay of Bengal were investigated to find evidence for palaeotsunamis and palaeoearthquakes. Fieldwork was conducted on Red Skin Island and North Cinque Island, south of South Andaman. Sediment material from event-layers was dated by optically stimulated luminescence and radiocarbon dating method. The results show evidence possibly for one earthquake at about 1,000 or 3,000 years before the present together with deposits from possible tsunamis and storms. The complex pattern of co- and post-seismic uplift and subsidence of the Andaman Islands is reflected in the investigated sections and made it possible to reconstruct an event-history for the last 3,000 years.     

Validations of suspended sediment concentration (ssc) derived using ocean colour monitor (ocm) data off Chennai coast, India

Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS) — P4 Ocean Colour Monitor (OCM) data were used to estimate Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC) in the coastal waters off Chennai and to study the distribution along the coast. Surface water samples were collected during May and October 2000 synchronized with satellite overpass, and quantitative estimates of Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC) were done. OCM — Data Analysis System (DAS) software developed by the Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad was used for OCM data processing and analysis. The field data and OCM derived SSC showed a correlation of r = 0.85 and r = 0.95 for the months of May and October respectively.     

Local pulsars: A note on the birth-velocity distribution

We explore a simple model for the representation of the observed distributions of the motions, and the characteristic ages of the local population of pulsars. The principal difference from earlier models is the introduction of a unique value,S, for the kick velocity with which pulsars are born. We consider separately the proper motion components in galactic longitude and latitude, and find that the distributions of the velocity components parallel and perpendicular to the galactic plane are represented satisfactorily byS = 200 km/sec, and leave no room for a significant fraction of much higher velocities. The successful proposition of a unique value for the kick velocity may provide an interesting tool in attempts to understand the physical process leading to the expulsion of the neutron star. This paper is an extended analysis of the talk presented by A. Blaauw at the Raman Research Institute on 20th February, 1996.     

Performance evaluation of COSMO numerical weather prediction model in prediction of OCKHI: one of the rarest very severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea—a case study

Natural Hazards - In the first week of December 2017, a very severe cyclonic storm, namely “OCKHI”, made its landfall over the western coastline of the Indian peninsula. In a...     

Temperature trends of Chennai City, India

Chennai is the fourth largest metropolitan city in India, and it is one of India's chief industrial and economic growth centers. The temperature change in Chennai is studied in this research by analyzing the mean maximum temperature (MMaxT), mean minimum temperature (MMinT), and mean annual temperature (MAT) from 1951 to 2010. Data are analyzed in three parts by running linear regression and by taking anomalies of all time periods: (a) the whole period from 1951 to 2010; (b) phase 1, 1951–1980; and (c) phase 2, 1981–2010. The trends have been evaluated by Student's t statistics and supported by Mann Kendall rank statistics. The observed change in temperature is positive, which has been clear increasing trends in MMaxT, MMinT, and MAT. MAT has increased 1.3°C since the last 60 years. MMaxT has increased up to 1.6°C, in which the second phase accounts for 75 % of the total change during the last 60 years. MMinT over Chennai has increased 1.0°C. There is a high rise in temperature during winter season.