Geoeffectiveness and flare properties of radio-loud CMEs

A detailed investigation on geoeffective CMEs associated with meter to Deca-Hectometer (herein after m- and DH-type-II) wavelengths range type-II radio bursts observed during the period 1997–2005 is presented. The study consists of three steps: i) the characteristics of m-and DH-type-II bursts associated with flares and geoeffective CMEs; ii) characteristics of geo and non-geoeffective radio-loud and quiet CMEs, iii) the relationships between the geoeffective CMEs and flares properties. Interestingly, we found that 92 % of DH-type-II bursts are extension of m-type-II burst which are associated with faster and wider geoeffective DH-CMEs and also associated with longer/stronger flares. The geoeffective CME-associated m-type-II bursts have higher starting frequency, lower ending frequency and larger bandwidth compared to the general population of m-type-II bursts. The geoeffective CME-associated DH-type-II bursts have longer duration (P?1 %), lower ending frequency (P=2 %) and lower drift rates (P=2 %) than that of DH-type-IIs associated with non-geoeffective CMEs. The differences in mean speed of geoeffective DH-CMEs and non-geoeffective DH-CMEs (1327 km?s^?1 and 1191 km?s^?1, respectively) is statistically insignificant (P=20 %).However, the mean difference in width (339^° and 251^°, respectively) is high statistical significant (P=0.8 %). The geo-effective general populations of LASCO CMEs speeds (545 km?s^?1 and 450 km?s^?1, respectively) and widths (252^° and 60^°, respectively) is higher than the non geo-effective general populations of LASCO CMEs (P=3 % and P=0.02 %, respectively). The geoeffective CMEs associated flares have longer duration, and strong flares than non-geoeffective DH-CMEs associated flares (P=0.8 % and P=1 %, respectively). We have found a good correlation between the geo-effective flare and DH-CMEs properties: i) CMEs speed—acceleration (R=?0.78, where R is a linear correlation coefficient), ii) acceleration—flare peak flux (R=?0.73) and, iii) acceleration—Dst index intensity (R=0.75). The radio-rich CMEs (DH-CMEs) produced more energetic storm than the radio-quiet CMEs (general populations of LASCO CMEs). The above results indicate that the DH-type-II bursts tend to be related with flares and geoeffective CMEs, although there is no physical explanation for the result. If the DH-type-II burst is a continuation of m-type-II burst, it could be a good indicator of geoeffective storms, which has important implications for space weather studies.     

An exact similarity solution in radiation magneto-gas-dynamics for the flows behind a spherical shock wave

An exact similarity solution for a spherical magnetogasdynamic shock is obtained in the case when radiation energy, radiation pressure and radiative heat flux are important. The total energy of the shock wave increase with time. We have shown that due to the magnetic field the flow variables are considerably changed. Also, due to increases in radiation pressure number the radiation flux is increased.     

Local hydraulic gradient estimator analysis of long-term monitoring networks

Three measurements of head at unique locations form a three-point estimator of the local magnitude and orientation of the hydraulic gradient. The relative head measurement error (RHME) is defined here as the measurement error normalized by the head drop across the three-point estimator. Monte Carlo simulation results show that estimators with base to height ratios between 0.5 and 5.0 and that are large enough to keep the RHME below 0.05 create the most accurate gradient estimates and provide criteria for identifying good estimators. These criteria are applied to an example ground water monitoring network design problem in the Culebra dolomite near the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant repository to both analyze temporal changes and modify and expand the current monitoring network. Limiting the three-point estimators to those that meet the shape and RHME criteria reduces the number of possible estimators by >50% and leads to approximately 1 order of magnitude decrease in the average estimated magnitude of the gradient relative to using all estimators. Application of these criteria also reduces the variability in estimated gradient magnitude and orientation between the two time periods of measurements. Redundant wells in the network are identified by removing each existing well in turn and determining which removals yield the smallest decrease in the number of acceptable estimators. Optimal new well locations are identified by mapping the increase in total number of acceptable estimators for a single new well placed in the study domain.     

Connection of the stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part II: interdecadal variations

The interdecadal variation of the association of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (SSTA) and with the general circulation in the troposphere and lower stratosphere is examined using the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, as well as other observation-based analyses. It is found that the relationship between the QBO and tropical SSTA changed once around 1978–1980, and again in 1993–1995. During 1966–1974, negative correlation between the QBO and NINO3.4 indices reached its maximum when the NINO3.4 index lagged the QBO by less than 6?months. Correspondingly, the positive correlations were observed when the NINO3.4 index led the QBO by about 11–13?months or lagged by about 12–18?months. However, maximum negative correlations were shifted from the NINO3.4 index lagging the QBO by about 0–6?months during 1966–1974 to about 3–12?months during 1985–1992. During 1975–1979, both the negative and positive correlations were relatively small and the QBO and ENSO were practically unrelated to each other. The phase-based QBO life cycle composites also confirm that, on average, there are two phase (6–7?months) delay in the evolution of the QBO-associated anomalous Walker circulation, tropical SST, atmospheric stability, and troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature anomalies during 1980–1994 in comparison with those in 1957–1978. The interdecadal variation of the association between the QBO and the troposphere variability may be largely due to the characteristic change of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation. The irregularity of the QBO may play a secondary role in the interdecadal variation of the association.     

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Based Inversion of Benthic Substrate Bottom Type and Bathymetry in Optically Shallow Waters - Initial Model Results

Ocean-colour remote sensing in optically shallow waters is influenced by contribution from the water column depth as well as by the substrate type. Therefore, it is required to include the contribution from the water column and substrate bottom type for bathymetry estimation. In this report we demonstrate the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based approach to spectrally distinguish various benthic bottom types and estimate depth of substrate bottom simultaneously in optically shallow waters. We have used in-water radiative transfer simulation modeling to generate simulated top-of-the-water column reflectance the four major benthic bottom types viz. sea grass, coral sand, green algae and red algae using Hydrolight simulation model. The simulated remote sensing reflectance, for the four benthic bottom types having benthic bottom depth up to 30 m were generated for moderately clear waters. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) type neural network was trained using the simulated data. ANN based approach was used for classification of the benthic bottom type and simultaneous inversion of bathymetry. Simulated data was inverted to yield benthic bottom type classification with an accuracy of ~98% for the four benthic substrate types and the substrate depth were estimated with an error of 0% for sea grass, 1% for coral sand and 1–3% for green and red algae up to 25 m, whereas for substrate bottom deeper than 25 m depth the classification errors increased by 2–5% for three substrate bottom types except sea grass bottom type. The initial results are promising which needs validation using the in-situ measured remote sensing reflectance spectra for implementing further on satellite data.     

A robust sequential CO2 emissions strategy based on optimal control of atmospheric CO2 concentrations

This paper formally introduces the concept of mitigation as a stochastic control problem. This is illustrated by applying a digital state variable feedback control approach known as Non-Minimum State Space (NMSS) control to the problem of specifying carbon emissions to control atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the presence of uncertainty. It is shown that the control approach naturally lends itself to integrating both anticipatory and reflexive mitigation strategies within a single unified framework. The framework explicitly considers the closed-loop nature of climate mitigation, and employs a policy orientated optimisation procedure to specify the properties of this closed-loop system. The product of this exercise is a control law that is suitably conditioned to regulate atmospheric CO₂ concentrations through assimilating online information within a 25-year review cycle framework. It is shown that the optimal control law is also robust when faced with significant levels of uncertainty about the functioning of the global carbon cycle.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and water stress in Uttarakhand State, India

This paper presents a participatory approach to investigate vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate variability and water stress in the Lakhwar watershed in Uttarakhand State, India. Highly water stressed microwatersheds were identified by modelling surface runoff, soil moisture development, lateral runoff, and groundwater recharge. The modelling results were shared with communities in two villages, and timeline exercises were carried out to allow them to trace past developments that have impacted their lives and livelihoods, and stimulate discussion about future changes and possible adaptation interventions.     

Wind-driven estuarine turbidity maxima in Mandovi Estuary,central west coast of India

Systematic studies on the suspended particulate matter (SPM) measured on a seasonal cycle in the Mandovi Estuary, Goa indicate that the average concentrations of SPM at the regular station are ∼20mg/l, 5mg/l, 19mg/l and 5mg/l for June–September, October–January, February–April and May, respectively. SPM exhibits low-to-moderate correlation with rainfall indicating that SPM is also influenced by other processes. Transect stations reveal that the SPM at sea-end stations of the estuary are at least two orders of magnitude greater than those at the river-end during the monsoon. Estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) of nearly similar magnitude occurs at the same location in two periods, interrupted by a period with very low SPM concentrations. The ETM occurring in June–September is associated with low salinities; its formation is attributed to the interactions between strong southwesterly winds (5.1–5.6ms⁻¹) and wind-induced waves and tidal currents and, dominant easterly river flow at the mouth of the estuary. The ETM occurring in February–April is associated with high salinity and is conspicuous. The strong NW and SW winds (3.2–3.7ms⁻¹) and wind-driven waves and currents seem to have acted effectively at the mouth of the estuary in developing turbidity maximum. The impact of sea breeze appears nearly same as that of trade winds and cannot be underestimated in sediment resuspension and deposition     

A numerical study on the role of atmospheric forcing on mixed layer depth variability in the Bay of Bengal using a regional ocean model

Ocean Dynamics - This study investigates the role of driving atmospheric forces [winds, net heat flux, and evaporation–precipitation (E–P)] and the possible mechanisms on the mixed...