Evolution of the 2015/16 El Nio and historical perspective since 1979

The 2015/16 El Nio developed from weak warm conditions in late 2014 and NINO3.4 reached 3℃ in November 2015. We describe the characteristics of the evolution of the 2015/16 El Nio using various data sets including SST, surface winds,outgoing longwave radiation and subsurface temperature from an ensemble operational ocean reanalyses, and place this event in the context of historical ENSO events since 1979. One salient feature about the 2015/16 El Nio was a large number of westerly wind bursts and downwelling oceanic Kelvin waves(DWKVs). Four DWKVs were observed in April-November 2015 that initiated and enhanced the eastern-central Pacific warming. Eastward zonal current anomalies associated with DWKVs advected the warm pool water eastward in spring/summer. An upwelling Kelvin wave(UWKV) emerged in early November 2015 leading to a rapid decline of the event. Another outstanding feature was that NINO4 reached a historical high(1.7℃), which was 1℃(0.8℃) higher than that of the 1982/83(1997/98) El Nio . Although NINO3 was comparable to that of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Nio , NINO1+2 was much weaker. Consistently, enhanced convection was displaced 20 degree westward, and the maximum D20 anomaly was about 1/3.1/2 of that in 1997 and 1982 near the west coast of South America.     

Establishing a predictive performance indicator for real‐time hybrid simulation

Real‐time hybrid simulation (RTHS) is increasingly being recognized as a powerful cyber‐physical technique that offers the opportunity for system evaluation of civil structures subject to extreme dynamic loading. Advances in this field are enabling researchers to evaluate new structural components/systems in cost‐effective and efficient ways, under more realistic conditions. For RTHS, performance metric clearly needs to be developed to predict and evaluate the accuracy of various partitioning choices while incorporating the dynamics of the transfer system, and computational/communication delays. In addition, because of the dynamics of the transfer system, communication delays, and computation delays, the RTHS equilibrium force at the interface between numerical and physical substructures is subject to phase discrepancy. Thus, the transfer system dynamics must be accommodated by appropriate actuator controllers. In this paper, a new performance indicator, predictive performance indicator (PPI), is proposed to assess the sensitivity of an RTHS configuration to any phase discrepancy resulting from transfer system dynamics and computational/communication delays. The predictive performance indicator provides a structural engineer with two sets of information as follows: (i) in the absence of a reference response, what is the level of fidelity of the RTHS response? and (ii) if needed, what partitioning adjustments can be made to effectively enhance the fidelity of the response? Moreover, along with the RTHS stability switch criterion, this performance metric may be used as an acceptance criteria for conducting single‐degree‐of‐freedom RTHS. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chemical evolution in the high arsenic groundwater of the Huhhot basin (Inner Mongolia,PR China) and its difference from the western Bengal basin (India)

Elevated As concentrations in groundwater of the Huhhot basin (HB), Inner Mongolia, China, and the western Bengal basin (WBB), India, have been known for decades. However, few studies have been performed to comprehend the processes controlling overall groundwater chemistry in the HB. In this study, the controls on solute chemistry in the HB have been interpreted and compared with the well-studied WBB, which has a very different climate, physiography, lithology, and aquifer characteristics than the HB. In general, there are marked differences in solute chemistry between HB and WBB groundwaters. Stable isotopic signatures indicate meteoric recharge in the HB in a colder climate, distant from the source of moisture, in comparison to the warm, humid WBB. The major-ion composition of the moderately reducing HB groundwater is dominated by a mixed-ion (Ca–Na–HCO₃–Cl) hydrochemical facies with an evolutionary trend along the regional hydraulic gradient. Molar ratios and thermodynamic calculations show that HB groundwater has not been affected by cation exchange, but is dominated by weathering of feldspars (allitization) and equilibrium with gibbsite and anorthite. Mineral weathering and mobilization of As could occur as recharging water flows through fractured, argillaceous, metamorphic or volcanic rocks in the adjoining mountain-front areas, and deposits solutes near the center of the basin. In contrast, WBB groundwater is Ca–HCO₃-dominated, indicative of calcite weathering, with some cation exchange and silicate weathering (monosiallitization).     

Seasonal and Monthly Variation of Vertical Structure of Temperature,Salinity and Heat Flux of the Bay of Bengal

Seasonal and monthly variations of heat flux have been investigated in this study using the Modular Ocean Model of version 3 (MOM 3) simulations and 52 years Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) products. These variations of the heat flux in different boxes of the Bay of Bengal (BOB) in different depths show the different behavior of the boxes. It is seen that the model and SODA results are comparable. The basin shows north-south variation in the surface from winter to spring whereas there is east-west variation in the mixed layer throughout the year except winter. The remote effect caused by warm water penetration from Pacific Ocean through the Strait of Malacca and coastal Kelvin waves keeps the basin warm most of the year. This article addresses the mechanisms of the seasonal variation of the vertical structure of the temperature and heat flux components.     

Impact of Pastoral Practices on Forest Cover and Regeneration in the Outer Fringes of Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary,Western Himalaya

The study reports the impact of migratory livestock in the buffer area of Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary. The cumulative impacts of livestock grazing, fuel wood extraction and other anthropogenic pressures on forest cover in and around camping sites have been analyzed using satellite data and field observations. Multi-date satellite data were used to map the forest cover around 16 seasonal livestock camps. An annual loss of about 7.25 ha of forest covers during 1976–1990, 13.57 ha during 1990–1999 and 11.46 ha during 1999–2005 are recorded. A loss of 108.53 ha of forestland has been estimated during 1976–1990, about 122.16 ha during 1990–1999 and 68.78 ha during 1999–2005. It is also observed that many of the isolated camping sites are now connected due to loss of vegetation. Phytosociological analysis indicates that the number of seedlings and saplings in three species of Quercus (Q. leucotrichophora, Q. floribunda and Q. semecarpifolia) as compared to mature tress is very less around cattle camping sites. The ratio of number of sapling with seedling and trees indicates that the status of sapling is nil to very poor, an indication of loss of saplings due to either trampling or grazing.     

An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

This paper analyzes surface climate variability in the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) recently completed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The CFSR represents a new generation of reanalysis effort with first guess from a coupled atmosphere?Cocean?Csea ice?Cland forecast system. This study focuses on the analysis of climate variability for a set of surface variables including precipitation, surface air 2-m temperature (T2m), and surface heat fluxes. None of these quantities are assimilated directly and thus an assessment of their variability provides an independent measure of the accuracy. The CFSR is compared with observational estimates and three previous reanalyses (the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis or R1, the NCEP/DOE reanalysis or R2, and the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The CFSR has improved time-mean precipitation distribution over various regions compared to the three previous reanalyses, leading to a better representation of freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation). For interannual variability, the CFSR shows improved precipitation correlation with observations over the Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and western Pacific. The T2m of the CFSR is superior to R1 and R2 with more realistic interannual variability and long-term trend. On the other hand, the CFSR overestimates downward solar radiation flux over the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool, consistent with a negative cloudiness bias and a positive sea surface temperature bias. Meanwhile, the evaporative latent heat flux in CFSR appears to be larger than other observational estimates over most of the globe. A few deficiencies in the long-term variations are identified in the CFSR. Firstly, dramatic changes are found around 1998?C2001 in the global average of a number of variables, possibly related to the changes in the assimilated satellite observations. Secondly, the use of multiple streams for the CFSR induces spurious jumps in soil moisture between adjacent streams. Thirdly, there is an inconsistency in long-term sea ice extent variations over the Arctic regions between the CFSR and other observations with the CFSR showing smaller sea ice extent before 1997 and larger extent starting in 1997. These deficiencies may have impacts on the application of the CFSR for climate diagnoses and predictions. Relationships between surface heat fluxes and SST tendency and between SST and precipitation are analyzed and compared with observational estimates and other reanalyses. Global mean fields of surface heat and water fluxes together with radiation fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are documented and presented over the entire globe, and for the ocean and land separately.     

Movement of seasonal eddies and its relation with cyclonic heat potential and cyclogenesis points in the Bay of Bengal

Movement of seasonal eddies in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and its relation with cyclonic heat potential (CHP) and cyclogenesis points have been investigated in this study using 6 years (2002–2007) of global ocean monthly analysis datasets based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) package (SODA v2.0.4) of Carton et al. (2005) and Indian Meteorological Department cyclogenesis points. The region dominated by anticyclonic eddies with CHP greater than 70 × 10⁷ J/m² as well as good correlations (>0.9) with sea surface height (SSH) and 26°C isothermal depth (D ₂₆) can be a potential region of cyclogenesis. The region dominated by cyclonic eddies with CHP greater than 50 × 10⁷ J/m² and good correlation (>0.9) with both SSH and D ₂₆ can serve as a potential region of high-level depression. Potential cyclogenesis regions are the southern BOB (5°N–12°N) for the post-monsoon season and the head of BOB (north of 15°N) during southwest monsoon. Seven potential regions are identified for the eddy formation for different seasons, which are consistent with the cyclogenesis points. The CHP distributions alone are able to explain the cyclone tracks for the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons but not for the monsoon season.     

On the planar motion in the full two-body problem with inertial symmetry

Relative motion of binary asteroids, modeled as the full two-body planar problem, is studied, taking into account the shape and mass distribution of the bodies. Using the Lagrangian approach, the equations governing the motion are derived. The resulting system of four equations is nonlinear and coupled. These equations are solved numerically. In the particular case where the bodies have inertial symmetry, these equations can be reduced to a single equation, with small nonlinearity. The method of multiple scales is used to obtain a first-order solution for the reduced nonlinear equation. The solution is shown to be sufficient when compared with the numerical solution. Numerical results are provided for different example cases, including truncated-cone-shaped and peanut-shaped bodies.     

Benthic denitrification and organic matter mineralization in intertidal flats of an enclosed coastal inlet, Ago Bay, Japan

Denitrification (as N(2) flux) and organic matter mineralization (as O(2) uptake) were simultaneously measured in the same set of core sediments from a natural sandy and a constructed muddy tidal flat of Ago Bay, Japan. Denitrification rates at both tidal flats fluctuated between ca. 2-20 micromol N(2)m(-2)h(-1) without showing a clear seasonal pattern, and appeared to be substrate limited as NO(3)(-) enrichment (final concentration ca. 225 microM) caused prompt and similar enhancements of ca. 10-folds. Organic matter mineralization rates were markedly higher at constructed muddy flat compared to those of natural sandy flat, especially in summer, and exhibited pronounced temperature dependent (p<0.01) seasonality for both tidal flats. O(2) uptake rates were generally ca. 2-3 order greater than respective denitrification rates indicating dominance of mineralization processes over N(2) losses.