Multivariate analyses of water chemistry: surface and ground water interactions

Multivariate statistical methods (MSMs) applied to ground water chemistry provide valuable insight into the main hydrochemical species, hydrochemical processes, and water flowpaths important to ground water evolution. The MSMs of principal component factor analysis (FA) and k-means cluster analysis (CA) were sequentially applied to major ion chemistry from 211 different ground water-sampling locations in the Amargosa Desert. The FA reduces the number of variables describing the system and finds relationships between major ions. The CA of the reduced system produced objective hydrochemical facies, which are independent of, but in good agreement with, lithological data. The derived factors and hydrochemical facies are innovatively presented on biplots, revealing composition of hydrochemical processes and facies, and overlaid on a digital elevation model, displaying flowpaths and interactions with geologic and topographic features in the region. In particular, a distinct ground water chemical signature is observed beneath and surrounding the extended flowpath of Fortymile Wash, presenting some contradiction to contemporary water levels along with potential interaction with a fault line. The signature surrounding the ephemeral Fortymile Wash is believed to represent the relic of water that infiltrated during past pluvial periods when the amount of runoff in the wash was significantly larger than during the current drier period. This hypothesis and aforementioned analyses are supported by the examination of available chloride, oxygen-18, hydrogen-2, and carbon-14 data from the region.     

Behavior of ductile steel X-braced RC frames in seismic zones

A satisfactory ductile performance of moment-resisting reinforced concrete concentric braced frame structures (RC-MRCBFs) is not warranted by only following the provisions proposed in Mexico’s Federal District Code (MFDC-04). The nonlinear behavior of low to medium rise ductile RC-MRCBFs using steel X-bracing susceptible to buckling is evaluated in this study. The height of the studied structures ranges from 4 to 20 stories and they were located for design in the lake-bed zone of Mexico City. The design of RC-MRCBFs was carried out considering variable contribution of the two main lines of defense of the dual system (RC columns and steel braces). In order to observe the principal elements responsible for dissipating the earthquake input energy, yielding mappings for different load-steps were obtained using both nonlinear static and dynamic analyses. Some design parameters currently proposed in MFDC-04 as global ductility capacities, overstrength reduction factors and story drifts corresponding to different limit states were assessed as a function of both the considered shear strength and slenderness ratios for the studied RC-MRCBFs using pushover analyses. Additionally, envelopes of response maxima of dynamic parameters were obtained from the story and global hysteresis curves. Finally, a brief discussion regarding residual drifts, residual drift ratios, mappings of residual deformations in steel braces and residual rotations in RC beams and columns is presented. From the analysis of the obtained results, it is concluded that when a suitable design criterion is considered, good structural behavior of RC-MRCBFs with steel-X bracing can be obtained. It is also observed that the shear strength balance has an impact in the height-wise distribution of residual drifts, and an important “shake-down” effect is obtained for all cases. There is a need to improve design parameters currently proposed in MFDC to promote an adequate seismic performance of RC-MRCBFs.

     

Drought and Spatiotemporal Variability of Forest Fires Across Mexico

Understanding the spatiotemporal links between drought and forest fire occurrence is crucial for improving decision-making in fire management under current and future climatic conditions. We quantified forest fire activity in Mexico using georeferenced fire records for the period of 2005–2015 and examined its spatial and temporal relationships with a multiscalar drought index, the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI). A total of 47975 fire counts were recorded in the 11-year long study period, with the peak in fire frequency occurring in 2011. We identified four fire clusters, i.e., regions where there is a high density of fire records in Mexico using the Getis-Ord G spatial statistic. Then, we examined fire frequency data in the clustered regions and assessed how fire activity related to the SPEI for the entire study period and also for the year 2011. Associations between the SPEI and fire frequency varied across Mexico and fire-SPEI relationships also varied across the months of major fire occurrence and related SPEI temporal scales. In particular, in the two fire clusters located in northern Mexico(Chihuahua, northern Baja California), drier conditions over the previous 5 months triggered fire occurrence. In contrast, we did not observe a significant relationship between drought severity and fire frequency in the central Mexico cluster, which exhibited the highest fire frequency. We also found moderate fire-drought associations in the cluster situated in the tropical southern Chiapas where agriculture activities are the main causes of forest fire occurrence. These results are useful for improving our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of fire occurrence as related to drought severity in megadiverse countries hosting many forest types as Mexico.     

Daily rainfall trend in the Valencia Region of Spain

Summary ?We have analyzed daily rainfall trends throughout the second half of the 20^th century in the western Mediterranean basin (Valencia Region, E of Spain). The area is characterized by high torrentiality, and during the second half of the 20^th century some of the highest daily rainfall values in the Mediterranean basin have been recorded. In this area, mean annual rainfall varies between 500 and 300 mm and is overwhelmingly dependent on just a few days of rain. Daily maximum rainfall varies on average from 120 mm day⁻¹ to 50 mm day⁻¹, and represents a mean of 17% (coastland) to 9% (inland) of annual rainfall. The 10 days in each year with the heaviest rainfall (called “higher events”) provide over 50% of the annual rainfall and can reach more than 400 mm on average. We compared the annual rainfall trend and the trend of higher and minor events defined by percentiles, both in volume and variability. We, therefore, tested whether annual rainfall changes depend on the trend of the higher (rainfall) events. To overlap spatial distribution of trends (i.e.: positive, no significant and negative trends) we have used cross-tab analysis. The results confirm the hypothesis that annual rainfall changes depend on changes found in just a few rainy events. Furthermore, in spite of their negative trend, higher events have increased their contribution to annual rainfall. As a consequence, although torrential events may have diminished in magnitude, future scenarios seem to be controlled by a limited number of rainy events which will become more and more variable year on year. The high spatial density of data used in this work, (97 observatories per 24.000 km², overall mean 1 observatory per 200 km²), suggests to us that extreme caution should be applied when analyzing regional and sub-regional changes in rainfall using GCM output, especially in areas of high torrentiality. Received August 1, 2002; revised November 11, 2002; accepted December 1, 2002 Published online May 19, 2003     

Temporal evolution of surface humidity in Spain: recent trends and possible physical mechanisms

We analyzed the evolution of surface relative humidity (RH) and specific humidity (q) in Spain, based on complete records available from the State Meteorological Agency of Spain. The surface RH records used span the period 1920–2011, but because of spatial and temporal constraints in the dataset we used a subset of the data, covering the period 1961–2011. The subset contained 50 monthly series of RH, which were created through a process of quality control, reconstruction and homogenization. The data shows that there was a large decrease in RH over mainland Spain from 1961 to 2011, which was greatest in spring and summer. In contrast, there was no overall change in the specific humidity in this period, except in spring, when an increase was observed. The decrease in RH affected the entire country, but the changes in specific humidity were less homogeneous. For specific humidity there was a general increase in the northern and eastern parts of Spain, whereas negative trends dominated in the central and southern areas, mainly during the summer months. The results suggest that an increase in the water holding capacity of the atmosphere as a consequence of warming during recent decades has not been accompanied by an increase in the surface water vapor content, probably because the supply of water vapor from the main terrestrial and oceanic areas has been constrained. We discuss the implications of these findings for evapotranspiration processes, precipitation and water management in Spain.     

Urban boundary layer analysis in the complex coastal terrain of Bilbao using Enviro-HIRLAM

This study analyses the atmospheric boundary layer over the Bilbao metropolitan area during summer (13–18 Jul 2009) and winter (20–29 Jan 2010) episodes using the Environment–High Resolution Limited Area Model (Enviro-HIRLAM) coupled with the building effect parameterisation (BEP). The main objectives of this study are: to evaluate the performance of the model to simulate the land–sea breezes over this complex terrain; to assess the simulations with the integration of an urban parameterisation in Enviro-HIRLAM and finally; and to analyse the urban–atmosphere interactions. Even if the hydrostraticity of the model is a limitation to simulate atmospheric flows over complex terrain, sensibility tests demonstrate that 2.4 km is the optimal horizontal resolution over Bilbao that allows at the same time: to obtain satisfactory reproducibility of the large-scale processes and to explore the urban effects at local scale. During the summer episode, a typical regime of diurnal sea breeze from the NW-N-NE direction and nocturnal valley breezes from the SE direction are observed over Bilbao. The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon is developed in the city centre expanding to the suburbs from 22 to 10 local time (LT), covering an area of 130 km². The maximum UHI intensity, 1 °C, is reached at the end of the night (5 LT), and it is advected 12 km towards the sea by the land breezes. The urban boundary layer (UBL) height amplitude varies from 100 (night time) to 1,360 m (at 14 LT). During the winter episode, the land breeze dominates the atmospheric diffusion during the day and night time. The maximum UHI intensity, 1.7 °C, is observed at 01 LT. It is spread and remained over the city covering an area of 160 km², with a vertical extension of 33 m. The UBL reaches 780 m height at 16 LT the following day.     

The Mesolithic–Neolithic transition in southern Iberia

New data and a review of historiographic information from Neolithic sites of the Malaga and Algarve coasts (southern Iberian Peninsula) and from the Maghreb (North Africa) reveal the existence of a Neolithic settlement at least from 7.5 cal ka BP. The agricultural and pastoralist food producing economy of that population rapidly replaced the coastal economies of the Mesolithic populations. The timing of this population and economic turnover coincided with major changes in the continental and marine ecosystems, including upwelling intensity, sea-level changes and increased aridity in the Sahara and along the Iberian coast. These changes likely impacted the subsistence strategies of the Mesolithic populations along the Iberian seascapes and resulted in abandonments manifested as sedimentary hiatuses in some areas during the Mesolithic–Neolithic transition. The rapid expansion and area of dispersal of the early Neolithic traits suggest the use of marine technology. Different evidences for a Maghrebian origin for the first colonists have been summarized. The recognition of an early North-African Neolithic influence in Southern Iberia and the Maghreb is vital for understanding the appearance and development of the Neolithic in Western Europe. Our review suggests links between climate change, resource allocation, and population turnover.     

Geostatistical simulation of spatial variability of convective storms in Mexico City Valley

Precipitation is one of the main components of the hydrological cycle and knowledge of its spatial distribution is fundamental for the prediction of other closely related environmental variables, for example, runoff, flooding and aquifer recharge. Most of the precipitation in Mexico City is due to convective storms characterized by a high spatial variability, implying that modeling its behavior is very complex. In this work stochastic simulation techniques with a geostatistical approach were applied to model the spatial variability of the rainfall of three convective storms. The analysis of the results shows that using the proposed methodology spatial distributions of rain are obtained that reproduce the statistical characteristics present in the available information.     

Origin of silicic volcanism in the Panamanian arc: evidence for a two-stage fractionation process at El Valle volcano

In the Central American Volcanic Arc, adakite-like volcanism has often been described as volumetrically insignificant. However, extensive silicic adakitic volcanism does occur in the Panamanian arc and provides an opportunity to evaluate the origin of this magma-type as well as to contrast its origin with other Central American silicic magmas. The Quaternary volcanic deposits of El Valle volcano are characterized by pronounced depletions in the heavy rare earth elements, low Y, high Sr, high Sr/Y, relatively high MgO, and low K₂O/Na₂O, when compared with other Quaternary Central American volcanics at similar SiO₂. These chemical features are also diagnostic of adakitic signatures. Our new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages of lava flows and ash flows that compose the volcanic edifice of El Valle volcano illustrate that the eruptive volume of adakitic-like volcanism is substantial during the Quaternary (~120 km³). Adakitic-like magmas dominate the stratigraphic record. Common to all models for the origin of an adakite geochemical signature is the involvement of garnet, as a residual or fractionating phase. The stability of garnet in hydrous magmas has been recently reevaluated with important consequences; garnet is a stable primary igneous phase at pressure and temperature conditions expected for magma differentiation at the roots of a mature island arc. Moreover, adakite-like volcanism erupted at El Valle volcano displays the middle rare earth element depletion observed in other Panamanian volcanic centers that has been attributed to significant amphibole fractionation. Extensive amphibole fractionation may have occurred in two stages. The first stage of fractionation, garnet + amphibole fractionation, occurs from hydrous basaltic–andesitic parental magmas that have ponded at the base of an overthickened crust. The second stage occurs at mid-lower crustal levels where abundant amphibole + plagioclase and minor sphene crystallized from water-rich magmas. These two stages combined may have resulted in an amphibole-rich cumulate layer. This amphibole layer is likely the source of the abundant amphibole-rich cumulate enclaves and blobs found in volcanic products across the Panamanian arc. Stalling of water-rich magmas during this two-stage fractionation process could drive the interstitial liquids to the evolved compositions typical of continental crust, while leaving behind amphibole-rich cumulate rocks that may eventually be returned to the asthenosphere. Differentiation of H₂O-rich magmas under the conditions appropriate for the roots of island arcs may therefore be a key process in developing a better understanding of the generation of continental crust in island arc environments.     

Magmatic diversity of western Mexico as a function of metamorphic transformations in the subducted oceanic plate

This geochemical study of the Mexican subduction zone elucidates how metamorphic and dehydration reactions affecting the subducted oceanic plate at different depths can influence magmatic diversity. In the western Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, there is a narrow potassic volcanic front running in parallel to the Middle American Trench that becomes replaced by intraplate-like high-Nb rocks to the north, and by more typical calc-alkaline products to the southeast. Potassic rocks have high MgO and are enriched in incompatible trace elements, but have lower heavy rare earth element contents than more evolved calc-alkaline and high-Nb magmas, and slightly more enriched Sr, Nd and Pb isotopes. Potassic magmas also have higher Rb/Cs and Ba/Cs ratios than the calc-alkaline and high-Nb suites, and extend to unusually high Nb/Ta ratios that correlate positively with Rb/Ta, Zr/Ta, La/Ta and Gd/Yb. These chemical variations are inconsistent with different extents of melting of a peridotitic source, but are also incompatible with melting of a phlogopite-rich mantle (vein-plus-wall-rock relationship), unless mica is totally consumed during melting, and a titaniferous phase such as rutile remains in the residue together with garnet. This assemblage is unlikely in the source region of primitive hydrous magmas, but it is what would be expected during dissolution of phengite and monazite/allanite in the subducted slab, with the concurrent formation of an anhydrous rutile-bearing eclogite. The magmatic diversity of western Mexico can thus be explained by invoking contributions of chemically different subduction agents as a function of slab depth and residual mineralogy: a low-pressure/temperature aqueous fluid would induce melting of the peridotitic mantle wedge and form typical calc-alkaline volcanoes, whereas a deeper and hotter slab-derived melt (or supercritical liquid) would contribute to the formation of potassic magmas due to phengite/monazite/allanite disintegration. In this context, intraplate-like magmas derive from decompression melting of the upper mantle as a natural consequence of subduction geodynamics.