Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles

This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO₂e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Policy relevance

In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.     

Modern modes of provenance and dispersal of terrigenous sediments in the North Pacific and Bering Sea: implications and perspectives for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions

During expedition 202 aboard the RV Sonne in 2009, 39 seafloor surface sediment sites were sampled over a wide sector of the North Pacific and adjoining Bering Sea. The data served to infer land–ocean linkages of terrigenous sediment supply in terms of major sources and modes of sediment transport within an over-regional context. This is based on an integrated approach dealing with grain-size analysis, bulk mineralogy and clay mineralogy in combination with statistical data evaluation (end-member modelling of grain-size data, fuzzy cluster analysis of mineralogical data). The findings on clay mineralogy served to update those of earlier work extracted from the literature. Today, two processes of terrigenous sediment supply prevail in the study area: far-distance aeolian sediment supply to the pelagic North Pacific, and hemipelagic sediment dispersal from nearby land sources via ocean currents along the continental margins and island arcs. Aeolian particles show the finest grain sizes (clay and fine silt), whereas hemipelagic sediments have high abundances of coarse silt. Exposed sites on seamounts and the continental slope are partly swept by strong currents, leading to residual enrichment of fine sand. Four sediment sources can be distinguished on the basis of distinct index minerals revealed by statistical data analysis: dust plumes from central Asia (quartz, illite), altered materials from the volcanic regions of Kamchatka and the Aleutian Arc (smectite), detritus from the Alaskan Cordillera (chlorite, hornblende), and fluvial detritus from far-eastern Siberia and the Alaska mainland (quartz, feldspar, illite). These findings confirm those of former studies but considerably expand the geographic range of this suite of proxies as far south as 39°N in the open North Pacific. The present integrated methodological approach proved useful in identifying the major modern processes of terrigenous sediment supply to the study region. This aspect deserves attention in the selection of sediment core sites for future palaeoenvironmental reconstructions related to aeolian and glacial dynamics, as well as the recognition of palaeo-ocean circulation patterns in general.     

Structural control on the kinematics of the deep-seated La Clapière landslide revealed by L-band InSAR observations

The objective of this work is to document the deformation pattern of the deep-seated La Clapière landslide for the period 2007–2010 from the combination of L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferograms, ground-based total station measurements and identification of the slope geomorphological structures. The interferograms are calculated for pairs of ALOS/PALSAR images at a time interval of 46 days. The displacement field derived from the interferograms reveals a non-uniform displacement gradient from the top (subsidence) to the bottom (accumulation). Vertical velocities are calculated from the unwrapped phase values and are in good agreement with ground-based measurements. The results demonstrate the potential of L-band ALOS/PALSAR imagery for the monitoring of active landslides characterized by complex kinematic patterns and by important changes in the soil surface backscattering in time.     

The impact of salt on the late Messinian to recent tectonostratigraphic evolution of the Cyprus subduction zone

Messinian evaporites of locally more than 3‐km thickness occupy the subduction zone between Cyprus and Eratosthenes Seamount. Based on a dense grid of seismic reflection profiles, we report on compressional salt tectonics and its impact on the Late Miocene to Quaternary structural evolution of the Cyprus subduction zone. Results show that evaporites have experienced significant post‐Messinian shortening along the plate boundary. Shortening has initiated allochthonous salt advance between Cyprus and Eratosthenes Seamount, representing an excellent example of salt which efficiently escapes subduction and accretion. Further east, between Eratosthenes Seamount and the Hecataeus Rise, evaporites were compressionally inflated without having advanced across post‐Messinian strata. Such differences in the magnitude of salt tectonic shortening may reflect a predominately north–south oriented post‐Messinian convergence direction, raising the possibility of a later coupling between the motion of Cyprus and Anatolia than previously thought. Along the area bordered by Cyprus and Eratosthenes Seamount a prominent step in the seafloor represents the northern boundary of a controversially debated semi‐circular depression. Coinciding with the southern edge of the salt sheet, this bathymetric feature is suggested to have formed as a consequence of compressional salt inflation and seamount‐directed salt advance. Topographic lows on top of highly deformed evaporites are locally filled by up to 700 m of late Messinian sediments. The uppermost 200 m of these sediments were drilled in the course of ODP Leg 160 and interpreted to represent Lago Mare‐type deposits (Robertson, Tectonophysics, 1998d, 298 , 63‐82). Lago Mare deposits are spatially restricted to the western part of the subduction zone, pinching out towards the east whereas presumably continuing into the Herodotus Basin further west. We suggest a sea level control on late Messinian Lago Mare sedimentation, facilitating sediment delivery into basinal areas whereas inhibiting Lago Mare deposition into the desiccated Levant Basin. Locally, early salt deformation is believed to have provided additional accommodation space for Lago Mare sedimentation, resulting in the presently observed minibasin‐like geometry.     

Influence of prey abundance and abiotic factors on the long-term home-range and movement dynamics of spotted grunter Pomadasys commersonnii in an intermittently open estuary

Long-term home-range and movement dynamics of spotted grunter Pomadasys commersonnii and the distribution of their dominant prey, the sandprawn Callichirus kraussi, were investigated in the intermittently open East Kleinemonde Estuary, South Africa. In addition, the effects of fish length, diel cycle, season and other abiotic factors on home range and area use were examined. Nine adult spotted grunter (326–489?mm total length) were tagged with acoustic transmitters, and their movements were studied by manual tracking on six consecutive days and nights during each of five tracking sessions from March to November 2004. In addition, movement patterns were recorded by stationary data-logging receivers. Kernel home ranges (95% utilised distribution) varied in size (mean: 76 797?m²?, range: 26 296–165 321?m²), but were all located in the lower one-third of the 3.6 km-long estuary. There was no effect of season, the diel cycle or fish length on the home-range estimates. However, the distribution of prey corresponded with the home-range distribution of tagged fish. Although sandprawn distribution was highly variable within and among transects and depth classes, sandprawns were most abundant in the lower region of the estuary, which corresponded to the home-range distribution of spotted grunter. Spatial distribution of prey appears to be a dominant factor influencing home-range parameters of this species within an intermittently open estuary.