A climate change simulation starting from 1935

Due to restrictions in the available computing resources and a lack of suitable observational data, transient climate change experiments with global coupled ocean-atmosphere models have been started from an initial state at equilibrium with the present day forcing. The historical development of greenhouse gas forcing from the onset of industrialization until the present has therefore been neglected. Studies with simplified models have shown that this cold start error leads to a serious underestimation of the anthropogenic global warming. In the present study, a 150-year integration has been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model starting from the greenhouse gas concentration observed in 1935, i.e., at an early time of industrialization. The model was forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations up to 1985, and with the equivalent C0₂ concentrations stipulated in Scenario A (Business as Usual) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1985 to 2085. The early starting date alleviates some of the cold start problems. The global mean near surface temperature change in 2085 is about 0.3 K (ca. 10%) higher in the early industrialization experiment than in an integration with the same model and identical Scenario A greenhouse gas forcing, but with a start date in 1985. Comparisons between the experiments with early and late start dates show considerable differences in the amplitude of the regional climate change patterns, particularly for sea level. The early industrialization experiment can be used to obtain a first estimate of the detection time for a greenhouse-gas-induced near-surface temperature signal. Detection time estimates are obtained using globally and zonally averaged data from the experiment and a long control run, as well as principal component time series describing the evolution of the dominant signal and noise modes. The latter approach yields the earliest detection time (in the decade 1990–2000) for the time-evolving near-surface temperature signal. For global-mean temperatures or for temperatures averaged between 45°N and 45°S, the signal detection times are in the decades 2015–2025 and 2005–2015, respectively. The reduction of the cold start error in the early industrialization experiment makes it possible to separate the near-surface temperature signal from the noise about one decade earlier than in the experiment starting in 1985. We stress that these detection times are only valid in the context of the coupled model's internally-generated natural variability, which possibly underestimates low frequency fluctuations and does not incorporate the variance associated with changes in external forcing factors, such as anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability or volcanic dust.     

Modes of climate variability as simulated by a coupled general circulation model. Part I: ENSO-like climate variability and its low-frequency modulation

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated in a multicentury integration conducted with the coupled general circulation model (CGCM) ECHAM3/LSG. The quasiperiodic interannual oscillations of the simulated equatorial Pacific climate system are due to subsurface temperature anomaly propagation and a positive atmosphere-ocean feedback. The gravest internal wave modes contribute to the generation of these anomalies. The simulated ENSO has a characteristic period of 5–8 years. Due to the coarse resolution of the ocean model the ENSO amplitude is underestimated by a factor of three as compared to observations. The model ENSO is associated with the typical atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Using wavelet statistics two characteristic interdecadal modulations of the ENSO variance are identified. The origins of a 22 and 35?y ENSO modulation as well as the characteristic ENSO response to greenhouse warming simulated by our model are discussed.     

Finite volume method on unstructured grids in 3D with applications to the simulation of gravity waves

Summary ?A code for the simulation of atmospheric flows in 3D is presented. The underlying mathematical model is fully compressible, it takes gravity into account but Coriolis forces, turbulence and viscosity are neglected. The general numerical code consists of a finite volume discretization on unstructured hexahedral grids in 3D. The code is presently being investigated on applications to the calculation of atmospheric gravity waves on a mesh which has a structured type and is locally refined near the orography. We develop two schemes, the main difference between them lies in the different discretizations for the mass fluxes. We show that both schemes resolve typical structures of gravity waves in potential flow, linear hydrostatic motion and nonlinear non-hydrostatic regime. We compare advantages and disadvantages of the developed schemes. Received April 20, 2001; revised September 10, 2001     

First Results of Measurements with a Newly-Designed Phased-Array Sodar with RASS

Summary At a special measuring site for boundary-layer studies as well as land-surface processes the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg of the German Weather Service (DWD) has recently put into operation a newly-desi gned phased-array SODAR/RASS, which has been developed by METEK on behalf of the DWD. This system provides the vertical profiles of the three-di mensional wind vector in the boundary layer on an operational basis and is furthermore suitable for getting information on the profile of virtual temperature up to about 400 m in height based on the addition of RASS components. The following paper describes both the technique of this SODAR/RASS and the various modes of operation as well as the different options in managing the system. First evaluations on the data availability concerning the maximum height coverage will give an impression on the system’s capabilities. Finally, the accuracy of the derived profiles of winds and temperature will be investigated by means of comparisons of the SODAR/RASS data with measurements of a six-sonde tethered-balloon system as well as meteorological data of a 99 m tower in the vicinity of the system. Received November 27, 1998 Revised April 9, 1999     

Precambrian crystalline basement in southern Mongolia as revealed by SHRIMP zircon dating

Single zircon ages determined by ion microprobe (SHRIMP II) for granitoid gneisses from the southern slope of the Baga Bogd massif (Gobi-Altai, southern Mongolia) reveal several episodes of zircon growth, ranging from late Palaeoproterozoic to late Cambrian. The oldest events are documented by a zircon crystallization age for a gneiss protolith at 1519 ± 11 Ma and by a xenocrystic zircon from a dark grey augen-gneiss yielding an age of c. 1701 Ma. Discrete igneous events are recorded in granite-gneisses with protolith emplacement ages of 983 ± 6, 956 ± 3 and 954 ± 8 Ma. These ages provide the first record of early Neoproterozoic magmatic activity in this region. A much younger and discrete magmatic event is recorded by several dioritic to granitic orthogneisses which are tectonically interlayered with the older gneisses and have protolith emplacement ages between 502 and 498 Ma. These late Cambrian granitoids of calc-alkaline affinity are likely to have been emplaced along an active continental margin and suggest that the Baga Bogd Precambrian crustal fragment was either docked against the southward (present-day coordinates) growing margin of the CAOB or was a large enough crustal entity to develop an arc along its margin. We speculate that the Precambrian gneisses of this massif may be part of a crustal fragment rifted off the Tarim Craton.     

Hydrothermal alteration and zeolitization of the Fohberg phonolite,Kaiserstuhl Volcanic Complex,Germany

The subvolcanic Fohberg phonolite (Kaiserstuhl Volcanic Complex, Germany) is an economic zeolite deposit, formed by hydrothermal alteration of primary magmatic minerals. It is mined due to the high (>40 wt%) zeolite content, which accounts for the remarkable zeolitic physicochemical properties of the ground rock. New mineralogical and geochemical studies are carried out (a) to evaluate the manifestation of hydrothermal alteration, and (b) to constrain the physical and chemical properties of the fluids, which promoted hydrothermal replacement. The alkaline intrusion is characterized by the primary mineralogy: feldspathoid minerals, K-feldspar, aegirine–augite, wollastonite, and andradite. The rare-earth elements-phase götzenite is formed during the late-stage magmatic crystallization. Fluid-induced re-equilibration of feldspathoid minerals and wollastonite caused breakdown to a set of secondary phases. Feldspathoid minerals are totally replaced by various zeolite species, calcite, and barite. Wollastonite breakdown results in the formation of various zeolites, calcite, pectolite, sepiolite, and quartz. Zeolites are formed during subsolidus hydrothermal alteration (<150 °C) under alkaline conditions. A sequence of Ca–Na-dominated zeolite species (gonnardite, thomsonite, mesolite) is followed by natrolite. The sequence reflects an increase in \(\log [(a_{{{\text{Na}}^{ + } }} )/(a_{{{\text{H}}^{ + } }} )]\) and decrease in \(\log [(a_{{{\text{Ca}}^{2 + } }} )/(a_{{{\text{H}}^{ + } }}^{2} )]\) of the precipitating fluid. Low radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values indicate a local origin of the elements necessary for secondary mineral formation from primary igneous phases. In addition, fractures cut the intrusive body, which contain zeolites, followed by calcite and a variety of other silicates, carbonates, and sulfates as younger generations. Stable isotope analysis of late-fracture calcite indicates very late circulation of meteoric fluids and mobilization of organic matter from surrounding sedimentary units.     

Particle size distribution and dissolution properties of metals in cyclone fly ash

The particles in the examined cyclone fly ash were all smaller than 0.25 mm. in diameter, and particles smaller than 0.075 mm. in diameter accounted for 88.4 % of the ash weight. This result indicates that cyclone fly ash consists of particles with a small diameter. The metals in the cyclone fly ash were enriched in small particles. The highest concentrations for zinc, copper, lead, cadmium and molybdenum in the cyclone fly ash were found in the smallest particle size fraction (< 0.075 mm.) and for Barium, chromium, nickel, Vanadium and Cobalt in the second to smallest particle size fraction (0.075-0.125 mm.). From an environmental and toxicological standpoint, the smallest particles are of the greatest concern when ash is handed at landfill disposal sites (transport and disposal especially in stormy weather conditions), and some studies have reported risks to workers from prolonged exposure to ash. The results of the comparison of various dissolution methods for metals showed that the digestion procedures with nitric acid alone (USEPA 3051) or with a mixture of nitric acid + hydrogen peroxide (USEPA 3050B) slightly underestimated the metal concentrations in the cyclone fly ash. Although the use of hydrofluoric acid is often necessary for the determination of a number of elements associated with siliceous minerals, its use can result in loss of trace elements during dissolution.     

Present-day and future precipitation in the Baltic Sea region as simulated in a suite of regional climate models

Here we investigate simulated changes in the precipitation climate over the Baltic Sea and surrounding land areas for the period 2071–2100 as compared to 1961–1990. We analyze precipitation in 10 regional climate models taking part in the European PRUDENCE project. Forced by the same global driving climate model, the mean of the regional climate model simulations captures the observed climatological precipitation over the Baltic Sea runoff land area to within 15% in each month, while single regional models have errors up to 25%. In the future climate, the precipitation is projected to increase in the Baltic Sea area, especially during winter. During summer increased precipitation in the north is contrasted with a decrease in the south of this region. Over the Baltic Sea itself the future change in the seasonal cycle of precipitation is markedly different in the regional climate model simulations. We show that the sea surface temperatures have a profound impact on the simulated hydrological cycle over the Baltic Sea. The driving global climate model used in the common experiment projects a very strong regional increase in summertime sea surface temperature, leading to a significant increase in precipitation. In addition to the common experiment some regional models have been forced by either a different set of Baltic Sea surface temperatures, lateral boundary conditions from another global climate model, a different emission scenario, or different initial conditions. We make use of the large number of experiments in the PRUDENCE project, providing an ensemble consisting of more than 25 realizations of climate change, to illustrate sources of uncertainties in climate change projections.     

Use of atmospheric radiation measurement program data from Barrow, Alaska, for evaluation and development of snow-albedo parameterizations

Summary Snow albedo is determined from the ratio of out-going to incoming solar radiation using three years of broadband shortwave radiometer data obtained from the Barrow, Alaska, Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. These data are used for the evaluation of various types of snow-albedo parameterizations applied in numerical weather prediction or climate models. These snow-albedo parameterizations are based on environmental conditions (e.g., air or snow temperature), snow related characteristics (e.g., snow depth, snow age), or combinations of both. The ARM data proved to be well suited for snow-albedo evaluation purposes for a low-precipitation tundra environment. The evaluation confirms that snow-age dependent parameterizations of snow albedo work well during snowmelt, while parameterizations considering meteorological conditions often perform better during snow accumulation. Current difficulties in parameterizing snow albedo occur for long episodes of snow-event free conditions and episodes with a high frequency of snow events or strong snowfall. In a further step, the first two years of the ARM albedo dataset is used to develop a snow-albedo parameterization, and the third year’s data serves for its evaluation. This parameterization considers snow depth, wind speed, and air temperature which are found to be significant parameters for snow-albedo modeling under various conditions. Comparison of all evaluated snow-albedo parameterizations with this new parameterization shows improved snow-albedo prediction. Correspondence: Nicole M?lders, Geophysical Institute and College of Natural Science and Mathematics, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 903 Koyukuk Drive, P.O. Box 757320, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320, USA     

Effect of Surface Heterogeneity on the Boundary-Layer Height: A Case Study at a Semi-Arid Forest

We investigate the effects of an isolated meso-\(\gamma \)-scale surface heterogeneity for roughness and albedo on the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) height, with a case study at a semi-arid forest surrounded by sparse shrubland (forest area: \(28~\text{ km }^2\), forest length in the main wind direction: 7 km). Doppler lidar and ceilometer measurements at this semi-arid forest show an increase in the ABL height over the forest compared with the shrubland on four out of eight days. The differences in the ABL height between shrubland and forest are explained for all days with a model that assumes a linear growth of the internal boundary layer of the forest through the convective ABL upwind of the forest followed by a square-root growth into the stable free atmosphere. For the environmental conditions that existed during our measurements, the increase in ABL height due to large sensible heat fluxes from the forest (\(600~\text {W~m}^{-2}\) in summer) is subdued by stable stratification in the free atmosphere above the ABL, or reduced by high wind speeds in the mixed layer.