Bio-electricity and land use in the Future Agricultural Resources Model (FARM)

Bio-electricity is an important technology for Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-27) mitigation scenarios, especially with the possibility of negative carbon dioxide emissions when combined with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). With a strong economic foundation, and broad coverage of economic activity, computable general equilibrium models have proven useful for analysis of alternative climate change policies. However, embedding energy technologies in a general equilibrium model is a challenge, especially for a negative emissions technology with joint products of electricity and carbon dioxide storage. We provide a careful implementation of bio-electricity with CCS in a general equilibrium context, and apply it to selected EMF-27 mitigation scenarios through 2100. Representing bio-electricity and its land requirements requires consideration of competing land uses, including crops, pasture, and forests. Land requirements for bio-electricity start at 200 kilohectares per terawatt-hour declining to approximately 70 kilohectares per terwatt-hour by year 2100 in scenarios with high bioenergy potential.     

On the Effect of Surface Heat-Flux Heterogeneities on the Mixed-Layer-Top Entrainment

We used a set of large-eddy simulations to investigate the effect of one-dimensional stripe-like surface heat-flux heterogeneities on mixed-layer top entrainment. The profiles of sensible heat flux and the temporal evolution of the boundary-layer depth revealed decreased entrainment for small heat-flux amplitudes and increased entrainment for large heat-flux amplitudes, compared to the homogeneously-heated mixed layer. For large heat-flux amplitudes the largest entrainment was observed for patch sizes in the order of the boundary-layer depth, while for significantly smaller or larger patch sizes entrainment was similar as in the homogeneous case. In order to understand the underlying physics of this impact, a new approach was developed to infer local information on entrainment by means of the local flux divergence. We found an entrainment maximum over the centre of the stronger heated surface patch, where thermal energy is accumulated by the secondary circulation (SC) that was induced by the surface heterogeneity. Furthermore, we observed an entrainment maximum over the less heated patch as well, which we suppose is to be linked to the SC-induced horizontal flow convergence at the top of the convective boundary layer (CBL). For small heat-flux amplitudes a counteracting effect dominates that decreases entrainment, which we suppose is the horizontal advection of cold air in the lower, and warm air in the upper, CBL by the SC, stabilizing the CBL and thus weakening thermal convection. Moreover, we found that a mean wind can reduce the heterogeneity-induced impact on entrainment. If the flow is aligned perpendicular to the border between the differentially-heated patches, the SC and thus its impact on entrainment vanishes due to increased horizontal mixing, even for moderate wind speeds. However, if the flow is directed parallel to the border between the differentially-heated patches, the SC and thus its impact on entrainment persists.     

Early-Morning Flow Transition in a Valley in Low-Mountain Terrain Under Clear-Sky Conditions

We investigate the evolution of the early-morning boundary layer in a low-mountain valley in south-western Germany during COPS (convective and orographically induced precipitation study) in summer 2007. The term low-mountain refers to a mountainous region with a relief of gentle slopes and with an absolute altitude that remains under a specified height (usually 1,500 m a.s.l.). A subset of 23 fair weather days from the campaign was selected to study the transition of the boundary-layer flow in the early morning. The typical valley atmosphere in the morning hours was characterized by a stable temperature stratification and a pronounced valley wind system. During the reversal period—called the low wind period—of the valley wind system (duration of 1–2 h), the horizontal flow was very weak and the conditions for free convection were fulfilled close to the ground. Ground-based sodar observations of the vertical wind show enhanced values of upward motion, and the corresponding statistical properties differ from those observed under windless convective conditions over flat terrain. Large-eddy simulations of the boundary-layer transition in the valley were conducted, and statistical properties of the simulated flow agree with the observed quantities. Spatially coherent turbulence structures are present in the temporal as well as in the ensemble mean analysis. Thus, the complex orography induces coherent convective structures at predictable, specific locations during the early-morning low wind situations. These coherent updrafts, found in both the sodar observations and the simulation, lead to a flux counter to the gradient of the stably stratified valley atmosphere and reach up to the heights of the surrounding ridges. Furthermore, the energy balance in the surface layer during the low wind periods is closed. However, it becomes unclosed after the onset of the valley wind. The partition into the sensible and the latent heat fluxes indicates that missing flux components of sensible heat are the main reason for the unclosed energy balance in the considered situations. This result supports previously published investigations on the energy balance closure.     

Compliance for uncertain inventories via probabilistic/fuzzy comparison of alternatives

A direct comparison among highly uncertain inventories of emissions is inadequate and may lead to paradoxes. This issue is of particular importance in the case of greenhouse gases. This paper reviews the methods for the comparison of uncertain inventories in the context of compliance checking. The problem is treated as a comparison of uncertain alternatives. It provides a categorization and ranking of the inventories which can induce compliance checking conditions. Two groups of techniques to compare uncertain estimates are considered in the paper: probabilistic and fuzzy approaches. They show certain similarities which are revealed and stressed throughout the paper. The group of methods most suitable for the compliance purpose is distinguished. They introduce new conditions for fulfilling compliance, depending on inventory uncertainty. These new conditions considerably change the present approach, where only the reported values of inventories are accounted for.     

Transmissivity of solar radiation through crowns of single urban trees—application for outdoor thermal comfort modelling

Trees play an important role in mitigating heat stress on hot summer days, mainly due to their ability to provide shade. However, an important issue is also the reduction of solar radiation caused by trees in winter, in particular at high latitudes. In this study, we examine the transmissivity of total and direct solar radiation through crowns of single street trees in Göteborg, Sweden. One coniferous and four deciduous trees of species common in northern European cities were selected for case study. Radiation measurements were conducted on nine clear days in 2011–2012 in foliated and leafless tree conditions using two sunshine pyranometers—one located in shade of a tree and the other one on the roof of an adjacent building. The measurements showed a significant reduction of total and direct shortwave radiation in the shade of the studied trees, both foliated and leafless. Average transmissivity of direct solar radiation through the foliated and defoliated tree crowns ranged from 1.3 to 5.3 % and from 40.2 to 51.9 %, respectively. The results confirm the potential of a single urban tree to reduce heat stress in urban environment. However, the relatively low transmissivity through defoliated trees should be considered while planning street trees in high latitude cities, where the solar access in winter is limited. The results were used for parameterisation of SOLWEIG model for a better estimation of the mean radiant temperature (T_mrt). Measured values of transmissivity of solar radiation through both foliated and leafless trees were found to improve the model performance.     

Catchment precipitation processes in the San Francisco valley in southern Ecuador: combined approach using high-resolution radar images and in situ observations

The precise estimation of precipitation quantities in tropical mountain regions is in great demand by ecological and hydrological studies, due to the heterogeneity of the rainfall distribution and the lack of meteorological station data. This study uses radar images and ground station data to provide the required high-resolution precipitation maps. Also wind data are taken into account, due to its influence on the precipitation formation and to demonstrate the relation between synoptic wind, topography and the precipitation distribution inside small mountain valleys. The study analyses the rainfall distribution and amounts of 4 days inside the San Francisco Valley, a small catchment in the tropical Andes of southern Ecuador, representing different seasons and the typical atmospheric flows, which are correlated to the annual precipitation map. The results show that the rainfall distribution and amounts are generally defined by the wind direction and velocity, besides the topographic location in relation to the main barriers and pathways. The dominant wind direction causes a division of the catchment in a wetter eastern and a dryer western part. Moreover, the annual seasons are reversed; the main rainy season for the eastern part occurs between June and August, while the western part reaches the precipitation maximum between January and March. This may have influence on the species composition at the different slopes and the annual hydrological cycle inside the catchment.     

Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 ^st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 ±0.19 m and 0.71 ±0.28 m respectively (mean ±1σ). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty.     

Impact of Hydropower Regulation on River Water Composition in Northern Sweden

Using hydrogeochemical analysis of two large boreal rivers (pristine Kalix and hydropower regulated Lule) discharging into the Gulf of Bothnia, the major impacts of regulation on water discharge, element transport and their seasonal redistribution have been assessed. The pre-regulation hydrogeochemical features were assumed to be similar for the two rivers. For the Lule River, the average maximum runoff was almost halved, while the average minimum was tripled as a result of the regulation. The fraction of winter transport of total organic carbon (TOC), Fe, Si, suspended Mn and P in the Lule River was, according to a conservative estimate, two to three times higher than in the pristine river. Longer residence time in the Lule River delayed arrival of the suspended Mn peak and dissolved Si decline to the river mouth. During summer, the suspended C/N ratio in the regulated river was 10–20 compared to <10 for the pristine, suggesting presence of predominantly old organic material. This was supported by a virtually constant suspended P/Fe ratio throughout the year in the Lule River, indicating low abundance of phytoplankton. TOC varied irregularly in the Lule River suggesting temporal disconnection between the river and the upper riparian zone. The disappearance of the spring flow maximum, a shift of element transport from spring to winter and supply of mainly old organic material during the vegetation growth season may have a pronounced impact on the ecosystem of the Gulf of Bothnia and the river itself.     

Sampling and Characterizing Rare Earth Elements in Groundwater in Deep-Lying Fractures in Granitoids Under In Situ High-Pressure and Low-Redox Conditions

Several countries are preparing to dispose of radioactive nuclear waste deep underground in crystalline rock. This type of bedrock is commonly extensively fractured and consequently carries groundwater that serves as a medium for transporting metals and radionuclides. A group of metals of particular interest in this context is the rare earth elements (REEs), because they are analogues of actinides contained within radioactive waste and are tracers of hydrological pathways and geochemical processes. Concentrations of REEs are commonly low in these groundwaters, leading to values below detection limits of standard monitoring methods, particularly for the heavy REEs. We present a new technical set-up for monitoring REEs (and other trace metals) in groundwater in fractured crystalline rock. The technique consists of passing the fracture groundwater, commonly under high pressure and containing reduced chemical species, through a device that maintains the physicochemical character of the groundwater. Within the device, diffusive gradient in thin-film (DGT) discs are installed in triplicate. With this set-up, we studied REEs in groundwater in fractures at depths of approximately ?144, ?280, and ?450 m in granitoids in the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The entire REE suite was detected (concentrations down to 0.1 ng L^?1) and was differently fractionated among the groundwaters. The shallowest groundwater, composed of dilute modern Baltic Sea water, was enriched in the heavy REEs, whereas the deeper groundwaters, dominated by old saline water, were depleted in the heavy REEs. Deployment periods varying from 1 to 4 weeks delivered similar REE concentrations, indicating stability and reproducibility of the experimental set-up. The study finds that 1 week of deployment may be enough. However, if the overall setting and construction allow for longer deployment times, 2–3 weeks will be optimal in terms of reaching reliable REE concentrations well above the detection limit while maintaining the performance of the DGT samplers.     

Recharge and sustainability of a coastal aquifer in northern Albania

The River Mati in Albania has formed a coastal plain with Holocene and Pleistocene sediments. The outer portion of the plain is clay, with three underlying aquifers that are connected to an alluvial fan at the entry of the river into the plain. The aquifers supply water for 240,000 people. Close to the sea the aquifers are brackish. The brackish water is often artesian and found to be thousands of years old. Furthermore, the salinity, supported by δ¹⁸O results, does not seem to be due to mixing with old seawater but due to diffusion from intercalated clay layers. Heavy metals from mines in the upstream section of River Mati are not an immediate threat, as the pH buffering of the river water is good. Moreover, the heavy metals are predominantly found in suspended and colloidal phases. Two sulphur isotope signatures, one mirroring seawater sulphate in the brackish groundwater (δ³⁴S >21 ‰) and one showing the influence of sulphide in the river and the fresh groundwater (δ³⁴S <10 ‰), indicate that the groundwater in the largest well field is recharged from the river. The most serious threat is gravel extraction in the alluvial fan, decreasing the hydraulic head necessary for recharge and causing clogging of sediments.