Gravitational scattering within the Himalia group of jovian prograde irregular satellites

We test the hypothesis that gravitational scattering within the Himalia prograde irregular satellite group is responsible for the large velocity dispersion identified by Nesvorný et al. (2003, Astron. J. 126, 398-429). We carry out numerical simulations of the dynamical evolution of this group under several scenarios for Himalia's mass for ¹⁰⁸ yr. We find that modification of the satellite orbits is significant, 10-15% of their semimajor axes differences but <5% of the eccentricities. Additionally, the inclination of the satellite Lysithea may have been modified by a secular resonance with Himalia. We scale the observed orbital element diffusion to the age of the Solar System using a power law approximation. The projected changes in a and e can reduce the observable ejection speeds of Elara and Lysithea with respect to Himalia under the 100 m s⁻¹ mark, rendering them consistent with hydrocode simulation results (Michel et al., 2002, Icarus 160, 10-23). The dispersion magnitude required to migrate Elara to its present orbit implies that Himalia's size has been underestimated by Cassini (Porco et al., 2003, Science 299, 1541-1547) and/or that its density is significantly higher than that of extensively fractured or “rubble-pile” bodies. In addition, Lysithea could have been created as recently as the last 500 Myr of the Solar System's history. Simple calculations indicate that such diffusion would also be evident in groups of satellites genetically related to Phoebe at Saturn, Caliban and Sycorax at Uranus and Nereid at Neptune.     

Six centuries of May–July precipitation in Cyprus from tree rings

A May–July precipitation nested reconstruction for the period AD 1415–2010 was developed from multi-century tree-ring records of Pinus nigra, Pinus brutia, and Cedrus brevifolia for Cyprus. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1917–2010 show a good level of skill, and split-sample validation over 1917–2010 supports temporal stability of the tree-ring signal for precipitation. Smoothed annual time series of reconstructed precipitation and a tally of drought events in a moving time window indicate that the calibration period is not representative of the full range of drought variability. While convective precipitation in the warm season may be driven strongly by local factors, composite maps of geopotential height anomaly for dry years and wet years support large-scale atmospheric-flow influence related to height anomalies over the broader region of northeast Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. Emerging positive trend in reconstruction residuals may be an early sign of exacerbation of drought stress on trees by recent warming in May–July. Future warming expected from increases in greenhouse gases poses a threat to forest resources in Cyprus and elsewhere in the Mediterranean.     

A population of Main Belt Asteroids co-orbiting with Ceres and Vesta

We have carried out a search for Main Belt Asteroids (MBAs) co-orbiting with the large MBA Vesta and the dwarf planet Ceres. Through improving the search criteria used in Christou (Christou, A.A. [2000b]. Astron. Astrophys. 356, L71–L74) and numerical integrations of candidate coorbitals, we have identified approximately 51 (44) objects currently in co-orbital libration with Ceres (Vesta). We show that these form part of a larger population of transient coorbitals; 129 (94) MBAs undergo episodes of co-orbital libration with Ceres (Vesta) within a 2 Myr interval centred on the present. The lifetime in the resonance is typically a few times ～10⁵ yr but can exceed 2 × 10⁶ yr. The variational properties of the orbits of several co-orbitals were examined. It was found that their present states with respect to the secondary are well determined but knowledge of it is lost typically after ～2 × 10⁵ yr. Objects initially deeper into the coorbital region maintain their coorbital state for longer. Using the model of Namouni et al. (Namouni, F., Christou, A.A., Murray, C.D. [1999]. Phys. Rev. Lett. 83, 2506–2509) we show that their dynamics are similar to those of temporary coorbital NEAs of the Earth and Venus. As in that case, the lifetime of resonant libration is dictated by planetary secular perturbations, the inherent chaoticity of the orbits and close encounters with massive objects other than the secondary. In particular we present evidence that, while in the coorbital state, close encounters with the secondary are generally avoided and that Ceres affects the stability of tadpole librators of Vesta. Finally we demonstrate the existence of Quasi-Satellite orbiters of both Ceres and Vesta and conclude that decametre-sized objects detected in the vicinity of Vesta by the DAWN mission may, in fact, belong to this dynamical class rather than be bona-fide (i.e. Keplerian) satellites of Vesta.     

The statistics of wave height and crest elevation during the December 2012 storm in the North Sea

This paper concerns new field measurements of wave height and crest elevation probability distributions as measured in the North Sea during a storm in December 2012. The water surface elevation was recorded by Saab WaveRadar REX instruments mounted on eight fixed-jacket platforms in addition to a Datawell Directional Waverider buoy. The storm generated an easterly sea state which peaked well in excess of the 100-year wave height for that direction in the region. Furthermore, 19 freak waves occurred during the storm according to the definition as reported by Haver (2000). The present study demonstrates that the significant steepness and spectral bandwidth during the storm remain almost constant. Consequently, there is little change in the commonly applied design wave height and crest elevation probability distributions throughout the storm. Whilst the bulk of the recorded data was in good agreement with the theoretical distributions, it was demonstrated that when the wind speed was larger than 25 m/s, the measured crest elevation lies above the second-order Forristall distribution.     

Triaxial ellipsoid dimensions and rotational poles of seven asteroids from Lick Observatory adaptive optics images, and of Ceres

Seven main belt asteroids, 2 Pallas, 3 Juno, 4 Vesta, 16 Psyche, 87 Sylvia, 324 Bamberga, and 707 Interamnia, were imaged with the adaptive optics system on the 3 m Shane telescope at Lick Observatory in the near infrared, and their triaxial ellipsoid dimensions and rotational poles have been determined with parametric blind deconvolution. In addition, the dimensions and pole for 1 Ceres are derived from resolved images at multiple epochs, even though it is an oblate spheroid.     

Speckle interferometry of asteroids II. 532 Herculina

Speckle interferometry of 532 Herculina performed on January 17 and 18, 1982, yields triaxial ellipsoid dimensions of (263 ± 14) × (218 ± 12) × (215 ± 12) km, and a north pole for the asteroid within 7° of RA = 7^b47^m and DEC = ?39° (ecliptic coordinates γ = 132° β = ?59°). In addition, a “spot” some 75% brighter than the rest of the asteroid is inferred from both speckle observations and Herculina's lightcurve history. This bright complex, centered at asterocentric latitude ?35°, longitude 145–165°, extends over a diameter of 55° (115 km) of the asteroid's surface. No evidence for a satellite is found from the speckle observations, which leads to an upper limit of 50 km for the diameter of any satellite with an albedo the same as or higher than Herculina.     

Response of tall buildings to base rocking induced by Rayleigh waves

By now, it is well known that long‐period surface waves can induce resonant response in high‐rise buildings, in particular those located in sedimentary basins. Rayleigh wave passage has been reported to induce rocking motion at the base of the buildings which can increase displacement demands significantly. However, the building behavior to base rocking has not been extensively studied because commercially available instruments do not record rotational components of ground motion, and thus, rocking time histories have not been available to the analysts. In a recent study, we proposed an effective method for estimating the rocking associated with Rayleigh waves, which takes into account their frequency‐dependent phase velocities. In the present work, we select a number of recorded seismic motions which include surface waves on sedimentary basins from recent well‐recorded earthquake events. Then, we proceed to identify and extract the recorded surface waves by using the technique mentioned above. Using realistic soil‐structure analytical models that have been proposed in the published literature for high‐rise buildings, we study their response to Rayleigh waves as they respond to both translational and rocking motions. Of particular interest is to compare the response of such structures with and without the presence of rotational motions due to surface waves. Using the roof displacement and the building interstory drift as response quantities, our results indicate that demands are controlled by rotational (rocking) motions associated with Rayleigh waves.