热带太平洋线性海气耦合系统的主模与ENSO

本文利用包含海洋表面边界层、线性海洋大气动力学以及完整的关于不均匀气候态线性化SST预报方程的热带太平洋海气耦合模式， 在真实的气候背景态和参数域内，研究了海气耦合系统的特征值问题，确定了线性耦合系统主模的特征周期及其稳定性特征，进而揭示了主模和ENSO的关系。结果表明:准两年振荡是线性海气耦合系统中的最不稳定模态，且只有该模态类似于ENSO水平结构。因此，准两年振荡很可能是海气耦合系统固有的最根本性的振荡过程。本文也对准两年振荡的形成与年循环的关系以及它在ENSO时间尺度形成中的作用进行了讨论。     

爆震观测及爆震效应的工程评价

本文介绍了有关爆破地震效应工程评价方法及其标准,汇报了观测仪器和得到的不同地区的经验传递系数,同时还介绍了部分振速及爆破地震烈度标准。     

基于抗震性态的设防标准研究

以基于性态的抗震设计为出发点,并以我国为例,针对目前国内外抗震设防标准的若干问题和不足,提出了基于性态抗震设计的三环节抗震设防方法．将现有的设防内容改为确定结构的抗震设计类别、确定设计烈度或设计地震动参数、确定建筑的重要性等级３个方面,并分别在每一方面进行具体深入的研究,从而形成了一套完整的基于性态的抗震设防标准确定的原则、方法和框架,可以直接用来编制规范供抗震设计使用．      

2.0GPa-室温至1160℃条件下安山岩纵波速度与相变

利用ＹＪ－３０００ｔ压力机的弹性波速度测量装置在２．０ＧＰａ室温到１１６０℃条件下就位测量了湖北大冶陈贵安山岩纵波速度,并在相应条件下获取了实验产物,对其观察表明,对应着岩石弹性波速度的变化。实验样品已经发生了相变。     

Densities of Huanghe River estuary and Bohai Bay waters

The densities of 36 water samples from the Huanghe River estuary and Bohai Bay were determinedby a magnetic float densimcter under three temperatures from 15℃ to 25℃.All the measured densities ofsamples were greater than that of the values calculated from the International Equation of State of Seawater.The differences between the measured and calculated densities increased with the decrease of salinities.The dif-ferences appeared exponentially correlated with[Ca~(2+)]/s,[Mg~(2+)]/s and[SO_4~(2-)]/s,and had"s"type curverelationship with the alkalinity in all salinity range.But in the salinity ranging from 25.72 to 31.57,therelationships were all linear.The density difference can be estimated from the equation △ρ（10~3kg·m~(-3)）=（-2.79+236.5([Ca~(2+)]/s)/(-9.7464×10~（-3）+[Ca~(2+)]/s).It was the high alkalinity and[Ca~(2+)]/s that resulted in the measured densi-ties of seawaters being higher than the calculated densities in the Huanghe estuary and Bohai Bay.     

Methane-dominated thermochemical sulphate reduction in the Triassic Feixianguan Formation East Sichuan Basin, China: towards prediction of fatal H2S concentrations

New sour pools have recently found in the Lower Triassic Feixianguan Fm carbonate reservoirs in the East Sichuan Basin in China with H₂S up to 17.4% by volume. A recent blowout from a well drilled into this formation killed hundreds of people as a result of the percentage concentrations of H₂S. In order to assess the origin of fatal H₂S as well as the cause of petroleum alteration, H₂S concentrations and the isotopes, δ³⁴S and δ¹³C have been collected and measured in gas samples from reservoirs. Anhydrite, pyrite and elemental sulphur δ³⁴S values have been measured for comparison. The high concentrations of H₂S gas are found to occur at depths >3000 m (temperature now at 100 °C) in evaporated platform facies oolitic dolomite or limestone that contains anhydrite nodule occurrence within the reservoirs. Where H₂S concentrations are greater than 10% its δ³⁴S values lie between +12.0 and +13.2‰ CDT. This is within the range of anhydrite δ³⁴S values found within the Feixianguan Fm (+11.0 to +21.7‰; average 15.5±3.5‰ CDT). Thus H₂S must have been generated by thermochemical sulphate reduction (TSR) locally within the reservoirs. Burial history analysis and fluid inclusion data reveal that the temperature at which TSR occurred was greater than about 130–140 °C, suggesting that the present depth-temperature minimum is an artifact of post-TSR uplift. Both methane and ethane were actively involved in TSR since the petroleum became almost totally dry (no alkanes except methane) and methane δ¹³C values become significantly heavier as TSR proceeded. Methane δ¹³C difference thus reflects the extent of TSR. While it is tempting to use a present-day depth control (>3000 m) to predict the distribution of H₂S in the Feixianguan Fm, this is an invalid approach since TSR occurred when the formation was buried some 1000–2000 m deeper than it is at present. The likelihood of differential uplift across the basin means that it is important to develop a basinal understanding of the thermal history of the Feixianguan Fm so that it is possible to determine which parts of the basin have been hotter than 130–140 °C.     

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Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.     

张北6.2级地震前后地磁Z分量的日变化

利用河北省及邻省、市共１７个地磁台相对观测Ｚ分量资料,总结分析了张北６．２级地震前后的日变化。认为,一次较强地震前可能有多次异常出现,日变反向可作为中短期异常,而后出现的日变低点位移,当分界线连续在某区出现,地震可能进入短临阶段。日变反向的极值区附近和低点位移连续汇集地区可能是未来震中。对于震前出现的多次异常进行追踪预报,可能效果较好。     

自动气象站采集器数据质量控制程序的改进设计

讨论自动气象站采集器的数据质量控制问题,以气温、风向、风速和降水量等4个代表性气象要素为例,提出自动气象站采集器数据质量控制程序的改进方案.在遵循向下兼容性、低运算量等要求下,改进设计在现有自动气象站采集器软件整体框架内进行.