Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model

Of the natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most devastating in terms of socio-economic losses, with the majority of landslides occurring in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The aim of this study is to use a statistical approach to carry out a landslide susceptibility assessment in one area at great risk from landslides: the Sera River Basin located in the Eastern Black Sea Region. This paper applies a multivariate statistical approach in the form of a logistics regression model to explore the probability distribution of future landslides in the region. The model attempts to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the dependent variable, here the presence or absence of landslides in a region and a set of independent parameters contributing to the occurrence of landslides. The dependent variable (0 for the absence of landslides and 1 for the presence of landslides) was generated using landslide data retrieved from an existing database and expert opinion. The database has information on a few landslides in the region, but is not extensive or complete, and thus unlike those normally used for research. Slope, angle, relief, the natural drainage network (including distance to rivers and the watershed index) and lithology were used as independent parameters in this study. The effect of each parameter was assessed using the corresponding coefficient in the logistic regression function. The results showed that the natural drainage network plays a significant role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated using a predicted map of probability. Zones with high and medium susceptibility to landslides make up 38.8 % of the study area and are located mostly south of the Sera River Basin and along streams.     

Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies

The constant threat from landslides in the northeastern part of Istria, Croatia, calls for the need to apply accurate and reliable methods in landslide hazard assessment in order to prevent landslide damage and to set an early warning system if necessary. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment enable optimal area management and regional urban planning. The study area is in the northeastern and central part of the Istrian Peninsula, well known as an area of frequent, small and shallow slope instability phenomena. Landslide susceptibility assessment in the area around the city of Buzet was performed using a deterministic landslide susceptibility model in the LS-RAPID software. LS-RAPID was developed to analyze stability at one single location, but the performed analysis has shown that LS-RAPID can be used as a powerful tool in landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment on regional scale. The objective of this paper is to establish the influence of the runout potential on the enlargement of the landslide-susceptible zones, due to expansion of the failure area around the initial failure zone. Performed analysis of rainfall return periods shows the frequency of landslide occurrence and provides the possible correlation with the time component of landslide hazard in the area.     

Flash flood vulnerability assessment for small catchments with a material flow approach

Destructions resulted from natural hazards like earthquake, landslide, or flood in the urban roads and lifelines introduce their negative effects including the psychological damage to citizens as well as decreased urban functions that usually last for a long time. Thus, a quick and efficient recovery of infrastructures, lifelines, and service-providing facilities along with reducing reconstruction costs and time are essential. This paper proposed an approach that consists of four models for forming an algorithm in order to quantitating and integrating of the criteria that have decisive influence in the recovery of urban roadways after a natural disaster. Meanwhile, to aggregate and conclude the data that are collected by means of presented functions and formulations, we applied fuzzy VIKOR technique as a compromise ranking method. The model outputs a priority list showing the revival of which urban paths stands in higher priority for recovery operation after a natural disaster. Results show that not only the model is able to precisely quantize the selected criteria and provide an action plan for post-event recovery prioritization, but also it offers an appropriate order of transportation roads priority for recovery operations. Finally, the results from the recovery model application to a roadway system in Tehran area are provided.     

Statistical landslide susceptibility assessment of the Mansehra and Torghar districts,Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province,Pakistan

This paper presents laboratory experiments and numerical simulations of effects of submerged obstacles on tsunami-like solitary wave and its run-up. This study was carried out for the breaking and non-breaking solitary waves on 1:19.85 uniform slope which contains a submerged obstacle. New laboratory experiments are performed to describe the mitigation of tsunami amplitude and run-up under the effect of submerged obstacles. We are based on experimental results obtained to validate the numerical model. The numerical modeling using COULWAVE aims essentially to show the effect of the obstacle on the shape of solitary wave and the limit of this effect. Using a multiple nonlinear regression, we have determined a model to estimate height of run-up according to the amplitude of the wave and the obstacle peak depth.     

An approach for estimating the largest probable tsunami from far-field subduction zone earthquakes

Following the recent unexpected earthquake events of 2004 and 2011, it can be cautiously extrapolated that all major subduction zones bearing the capacity to produce mega-earthquake events will eventually do so given enough time, irrespective of the lack of such in the relatively short historical record. This notion has led to an effort of assigning maximum earthquake magnitudes to all major subduction zones, either based on geological constraints or based on size–frequency relations, or a combination of both. In this study, we utilize the proposed maximum magnitudes to assess tsunami hazard in Central California in the very long return periods. We also assessed tsunami hazard following an alternative methodology to calculate maximum magnitudes, which uses scaling relations for subduction zone earthquakes and maximum fault rupture scenarios found in literature. A sensitivity analysis is performed for Central California that is applicable to any coastal site in the Pacific Rim and can readily provide a strong indication for which subduction zones beam the most energy toward a study area. The maximum earthquake scenarios are then narrowed down to a few candidates, for which the initial conditions are examined in more detail. The chosen worst-case scenarios for Central California stem from the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone that beams more energy and generates the biggest amplitude waves toward the study area. The largest tsunami scenario produces maximum free surface elevations of 15 m and run-up heights greater than 20 m.     

Relationships between typhoons,climate and crime rates in Taiwan

The literature indicates climate change is likely to cause more frequent and intense extreme weather events along with higher temperatures and altered precipitation. Taiwan frequently suffers from extremes in the form of typhoons, and their effects threaten both social stability and public security. Temperature effects through climate change are also expected to alter crime rates. We examine the immediate and longer-run impacts of typhoons and other climate variables on crime rates in Taiwan. The immediate results suggest that typhoon intensity has a significantly negative influence on rates of crime, including all violent crimes and automobile thefts. They also show that warmer temperatures have a strong positive effect on all violent crimes and all the subtypes of violent crimes. In addition, longer duration typhoons increase the immediate rates of all violent crimes, automobile thefts and muggings while decreasing the rate of burglaries. In the long run, we find that typhoon intensity, duration and landfall have persistent, lagged effects on crime that vary from negative to positive. For example, strong-intensity typhoons have significantly negative lagged effects on crimes 3–5 months in the future but positive lagged effects on crimes in future months 6–9. Finally, projections under the IPCC climate change scenarios show all violent crimes will increase.     

Forecasting flood-prone areas using Shannon’s entropy model

With regard to the lack of quality information and data in watersheds, it is of high importance to present a new method for evaluating flood potential. Shannon’s entropy model is a new model in evaluating dangers and it has not yet been used to evaluate flood potential. Therefore, being a new model in determining flood potential, it requires evaluation and investigation in different regions and this study is going to deal with this issue. For to this purpose, 70 flooding areas were recognized and their distribution map was provided by ArcGIS10.2 software in the study area. Information layers of altitude, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature, drainage density, distance from the river, topographic wetness index (TWI), lithology, soil type, and land use were recognized as factors affecting flooding and the mentioned maps were provided and digitized by GIS environment. Then, flood susceptibility forecasting map was provided and model accuracy evaluation was conducted using ROC curve and 30% flooding areas express good precision of the model (73.5%) for the study area.     

Reconstruction of specific mass balance for glaciers in Western Himalaya using seasonal sensitivity characteristic(s)

Seasonal sensitivity characteristics (SSCs) were developed for Naradu, Shaune Garang, Gor Garang and Gara glaciers, Western Himalaya to quantify the changes in mean specific mass balance using monthly temperature and precipitation perturbations. The temperature sensitivities were observed high during summer (April–October) and precipitation sensitivities during winter months (November–March), respectively. The reconstructed mass balance correlates well with the field and remote sensing measurements, available between 1980 and 2014. Further, SSCs were used with the monthly mean temperatures and precipitation estimates of ERA 20CM ensemble climate reanalysis datasets to reconstruct the specific mass balance for a period of 110 years, between 1900 and 2010. Mass balance estimates suggest that the Shaune Garang, Gor-Garang and Gara glaciers have experienced both positive and negative mass balance, whereas the Naradu glacier has experienced only negative mass balance since 1900 AD. Further, a cumulative loss of \(-133 \pm 21.5\) m.w.e was estimated for four glaciers during the observation period. This study is the first record from Indian Himalaya in evaluating the mass balance characteristics over a century scale.     

Environmental isotope investigation for the identification of source of springs observed in the hillock on the left flank of Gollaleru Earthen Dam,Andhra Pradesh,India

A hydrometric, hydrochemical and environmental isotopic study was conducted to identify the source and origin of observed springs on the foot of the hillock abutting the left flank of the Gollaleru earthen dam, Nandyal, Andhra Pradesh, India. Water samples (springs, reservoir water and groundwater) in and around the dam area were collected and analyzed for environmental isotopes (\(\updelta ^{18}\!\hbox {O}\), \(\updelta ^{2}\hbox {H}\) and \(^{3}\hbox {H}\)) and hydrochemistry. Reservoir level, spring discharges and physico-chemical parameters (temperature, electrical conductivity, pH, etc.) were monitored in-situ. Isotopic results indicated that the source of springs is from the Owk reservoir and groundwater contribution to the springs is insignificant. Based on hydrometric observations, it is inferred that the springs might be originated from the reservoir level of 209 m amsl. It is found that the lower spring discharges were derived from diffuse sources (seepage) which could be a mixture of reservoir water and the groundwater, while the relatively higher spring discharges were resulted from concentrated sources (leakage) from the reservoir. Thus, the study portraits the usefulness of isotope techniques in understanding the dam seepage/leakage related problems.     

First discovery of fossil winged seeds of <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Pinus</Emphasis> L. (family Pinaceae) from the Indian Cenozoic and its palaeobiogeographic significance

The occurrences of Pinus L. (family Pinaceae) megafossils (cones and leaf remains) have been abundantly documented from the Cenozoic sediments of eastern Asia (Japan and China), but none has been confirmed from the Indian Cenozoic till date. Here, we describe Pinus arunachalensis Khan and Bera, sp. nov. on the basis of seed remains from the middle to late Miocene Siwalik sediments of the Dafla Formation exposed around West Kameng district in Arunachal Pradesh, eastern Himalaya. Seeds are winged, broadly oblong to oval in outline, 1.3–1.5 cm long and 0.4–0.6 cm broad (in the middle part), located basipetally and symmetrically to wing, cellular pattern of wing is seemingly undulatory and parallel with the long axis of the wing. So far, this report provides the first ever fossil record of Pinus winged seeds from India. This record suggests that Pinus was an important component of tropical-subtropical evergreen forest in the area during the Miocene and this group subsequently declined from the local vegetation probably because of the gradual intensification of MSI (monsoon index) from the Miocene to the present. We also review the historical phytogeography and highlight the phytogeographic implication of this genus.