Single epoch estimation of the Galileo integrity chain sensor station clock offsets

The Galileo integrity chain depends on a number of key factors, one of which is contamination of the signal-in-space errors with residual errors other than imperfect modelling of satellite orbits and clocks. A potential consequence of this is that the user protection limit is driven not by the errors associated with the imperfect orbit and clock modelling, but by the distortions induced by noise and bias in the integrity chain. These distortions increase the minimum bias the integrity chain can guarantee to detect, which is reflected in the user protection limit. A contributor to this distortion is the inaccuracy associated with the estimation of the offset between the Galileo sensor station (GSS) receiver clocks and the Galileo system time (GST). This offset is termed the receiver clock synchronization error (CSE). This paper describes the research carried out to determine both the CSE and its associated error using GPS data as captured with the Galileo System Test Bed Version 1 (GSTB-V1). In the study we simulate open access to a time datum using IGS data. Two methods are compared for determining CSE and the corresponding uncertainty (noise) across a global network of tracking stations. The single-epoch single-station method is an ‘averaging’ technique that uses a single epoch of data, and is carried out at individual sensor stations, without recourse to the data from other stations. The global network solution method is also single epoch based, but uses the inversion of a linearised model of the global system to solve for the CSE simultaneously at all GSS along with a number of other parameters that would otherwise be absorbed into the CSE estimate in the averaging technique. To test the effectiveness of various configurations in the two methods the estimated synchronisation errors across the GSS network (comprising 25 stations) are compared to the same values as estimated by the International GPS Service (IGS) using a global tracking network of around 150 stations, as well as precise orbit and satellite clock models determined by a combination of global analysis centres. The results show that the averaging technique is vulnerable to unmodelled errors in the satellite clock offsets from system time, leading to receiver CSE errors in the region of 12 ns (3.7 m), this value being largely driven by the satellite CSE errors. The global network approach is capable of delivering CSE errors at the level of 1.5 ns (46 cm) depending on the number of parameters in the linearised model. The International GNSS Service (IGS) receiver clock estimates were used as a truth model for comparative assessment.     

Effects Of Changing Surface Heat Flux On Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Flow Over Flat Terrain

We examine the unsteady response of a neutral atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) of depth h and friction velocity u _* when a uniform surface heat flux is applied abruptly or decreased rapidly over a time scale t<inf>θ</inf> less than about h /(10u _*). Standard Monin–Obukhov (MO) relationships are used for the perturbed eddy viscosity profile in terms of the changes to the heat flux and mean shear. Analytical solutions for changes in temperature, mean wind and shear stress profile are obtained for the surface layer, when there are small changes in h /|L_MO| over the time scale t_MO~|L _MO|/(10u_*) (where L _MO and t _MO are the length and time scales, respectively). They show that a maximum in the wind speed profile occurs at the top of the thermal boundary layer for weak surface cooling, i.e. a wind jet, whereas there is a flattening of the profile and no marked maximum for weak surface heating. The modelled profiles are approximately the same as those obtained from the U.K. Met Office Unified Model when operating as a mesoscale model at 12-km horizontal resolution. The theoretical model is modified when strong surface heating is suddenly applied, resulting in a large change in h /|L _MO| (>>1), over the time scale t _MO. The eddy structure is predicted to change significantly and the addition of convective turbulence increases the shear turbulence at the ground. A low-level wind jet can form, with convective turbulence adding to the mean momentum of the flow. This was verified by our laboratory experiment and direct numerical simulations. Additionally, it is shown that the effects of Coriolis acceleration diminish (rather than as suggested in the literature, amplify) the formation of the wind jets in the situations considered here. Hence, only when the surface heat flux changes over time scales greater than 1/f (where f is the Coriolis parameter) does the ABL adjust monotonically between its equilibrium states. These results are also applicable to the ABL passing over spatially varying surface heat fluxes.     

Mining candidate causal relationships in movement patterns

In many applications, the environmental context for and drivers of movement patterns are just as important as the patterns themselves. This article adapts standard data mining techniques, combined with a foundational ontology of causation, with the objective of helping domain experts identify candidate causal relationships between movement patterns and their environmental context. In addition to data about movement and its dynamic environmental context, our approach requires as input definitions of the states and events of interest. The technique outputs causal and causal-like relationships of potential interest, along with associated measures of support and confidence. As a validation of our approach, the analysis is applied to real data about fish movement in the Murray River in Australia. The results demonstrate that the technique is capable of identifying statistically significant patterns of movement indicative of causal and causal-like relationships.     

What determines perceived value of seasonal climate forecasts? A theoretical analysis

Seasonal forecasts have potential value as tools for the management of risks due to inter-annual climate variability and iterative adaptation to climate change. Despite their potential, forecasts are not widely used, in part due to poor performance and lack of relevance to specific users’ decision problems, and in part due to a variety of economic and behavioural factors. In this paper a theoretical model of perceived forecast value is proposed and applied to a stylized portfolio-type decision problem with wide applicability to actual forecast users, with a view to obtaining a more complete picture of the determinants of perceived value. The effects of user wealth, risk aversion, and perceived forecast trustworthiness, and presentational parameters, such as the position of forecast parameter categories, and the size of probability categories, on perceived value is investigated. Analysis of the model provides several strong qualitative predictions of how perceived forecast value depends on these factors. These predictions may be used to generate empirical hypotheses which offer the chance of evaluating the model's assumptions, and suggest several means of improving understanding of perceived value based on qualitative features of the results.     

Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change?

Expert elicitation studies have become important barometers of scientific knowledge about future climate change (Morgan and Keith, Environ Sci Technol 29(10), 1995; Reilly et al., Science 293(5529):430–433, 2001; Morgan et al., Climate Change 75(1–2):195–214, 2006; Zickfeld et al., Climatic Change 82(3–4):235–265, 2007, Proc Natl Acad Sci 2010; Kriegler et al., Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(13):5041–5046, 2009). Elicitations incorporate experts’ understanding of known flaws in climate models, thus potentially providing a more comprehensive picture of uncertainty than model-driven methods. The goal of standard elicitation procedures is to determine experts’ subjective probabilities for the values of key climate variables. These methods assume that experts’ knowledge can be captured by subjective probabilities—however, foundational work in decision theory has demonstrated this need not be the case when their information is ambiguous (Ellsberg, Q J Econ 75(4):643–669, 1961). We show that existing elicitation studies may qualitatively understate the extent of experts’ uncertainty about climate change. We designed a choice experiment that allows us to empirically determine whether experts’ knowledge about climate sensitivity (the equilibrium surface warming that results from a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration) can be captured by subjective probabilities. Our results show that, even for this much studied and well understood quantity, a non-negligible proportion of climate scientists violate the choice axioms that must be satisfied for subjective probabilities to adequately describe their beliefs. Moreover, the cause of their violation of the axioms is the ambiguity in their knowledge. We expect these results to hold to a greater extent for less understood climate variables, calling into question the veracity of previous elicitations for these quantities. Our experimental design provides an instrument for detecting ambiguity, a valuable new source of information when linking climate science and climate policy which can help policy makers select decision tools appropriate to our true state of knowledge.     

Flexible multimethod approach for seismic site characterization

Journal of Seismology - We describe the flexible multimethod seismic site characterization technique for obtaining shear-wave velocity (VS) profiles and derivative information, such as the...     

Genesis of the Archean–Paleoproterozoic Tabletop Domain,Rudall Province,and its endemic relationship to the West Australian Craton

The Tabletop Domain of the Rudall Province has been long thought an exotic entity to the West Australian Craton. Recent re-evaluation of this interpretation suggests otherwise, but is founded on limited data. This study presents the first comprehensive, integrated U–Pb geochronology and Hf-isotope analysis of igneous and metasedimentary rocks from the Tabletop Domain of the eastern Rudall Province. Field observations, geochronology and isotope results confirm an endemic relationship between the Tabletop Domain and the West Australian Craton (WAC), and show that the Tabletop Domain underwent a similar Archean–Paleoproterozoic history to the western Rudall Province. The central Tabletop Domain comprises Archean–Paleoproterozoic gneissic rocks with three main age components. Paleo–Neoarchean (ca 3400–2800 Ma) detritus is observed in metasedimentary rocks and was likely sourced from the East Pilbara Craton. Protoliths to mafic gneiss and metasedimentary rocks are interpreted to have been emplaced and deposited during the early Paleoproterozoic (ca 2400–2300 Ma), and exhibit age and isotopic affinities to the Capricorn Orogen basement (Glenburgh Terrane). Mid–late Paleoproterozoic mafic and felsic magmatism (ca 1880–1750 Ma) is assigned to the Kalkan Supersuite, which is exposed in the western Rudall Province. The Kalkan Supersuite provided the main source of detritus for mid–late Paleoproterozoic metasedimentary rocks in the Tabletop Domain. Similarities in the age and Hf-isotope compositions of detrital zircon from these metasedimentary rocks and Capricorn Orogeny basin sediments suggests that a regionally extensive, linked basin system may have spanned the northern WAC at this time. The Tabletop Domain records evidence for two metamorphic events. Mid–late Paleoproterozoic deformation (ca 1770–1750 Ma) was high-grade, regional and involved the development of gneissic fabrics. In contrast, early Mesoproterozoic (ca 1580 Ma) high-grade deformation was localised and associated with more widespread, late-stage, greenschist facies alteration. These new findings highlight that the Tabletop Domain experienced a much higher grade of deformation than previously assumed, with a Paleoproterozoic metamorphic history similar to that of the western Rudall Province.