Screening the current soil drainage class map of Flanders (Belgium) for its predictive quality

The predictive quality of the current drainage class map of Flanders was evaluated using data from two monitoring networks: one with good spatial coverage but poor temporal coverage and another with better temporal but poor spatial coverage. We combine both networks to obtain 1678 point predictions for mean highest water (MHW) and mean lowest water (MLW) tables by applying time series modelling and total least squares regression. The resulting MHW and MLW point data set was used to evaluate the currency of the existing map and to identify regional differences. The quality of the current map is moderate, and large differences occur between regions. Especially the Campine region shows large and systematic differences, whereas the southeastern hills and chalk–loam region is relatively accurate. If more weight is given to errors in the wetter drainage classes, about 50% of the area of Flanders would benefit from remapping. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of soil and water conservation measures on catchment hydrological response—a case in north Ethiopia

Impact studies of catchment management in the developing world rarely include detailed hydrological components. Here, changes in the hydrological response of a 200‐ha catchment in north Ethiopia are investigated. The management included various soil and water conservation measures such as the construction of dry masonry stone bunds and check dams, the abandonment of post‐harvest grazing, and the establishment of woody vegetation. Measurements at the catchment outlet indicated a runoff depth of 5 mm or a runoff coefficient (RC) of 1·6% in the rainy season of 2006. Combined with runoff measurements at plot scale, this allowed calculating the runoff curve number (CN) for various land uses and land management techniques. The pre‐implementation runoff depth was then predicted using the CN values and a ponding adjustment factor, representing the abstraction of runoff induced by the 242 check dams in gullies. Using the 2006 rainfall depths, the runoff depth for the 2000 land management situation was predicted to be 26·5 mm (RC = 8%), in line with current RCs of nearby catchments. Monitoring of the ground water level indicated a rise after catchment management. The yearly rise in water table after the onset of the rains (ΔT) relative to the water surplus (WS) over the same period increased between 2002–2003 (ΔT/WS = 3·4) and 2006 (ΔT/WS >11·1). Emerging wells and irrigation are other indicators for improved water supply in the managed catchment. Cropped fields in the gullies indicate that farmers are less frightened for the destructive effects of flash floods. Due to increased soil water content, the crop growing period is prolonged. It can be concluded that this catchment management has resulted in a higher infiltration rate and a reduction of direct runoff volume by 81% which has had a positive influence on the catchment water balance. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Holocene tephrostratigraphic record of Lake Shkodra (Albania and Montenegro)

Two cores were recovered in the southeastern part of Lake Shkodra (Montenegro and Albania) and sampled for identification of tephra layers. The first core (SK13, 7.8 m long) was recovered from a water depth of 7 m, while the second core (SK19, 5.8 m long) was recovered close to the present‐day shoreline (water depth of 2 m). Magnetic susceptibility investigations show generally low values with some peaks that in some cases are related to tephra layers. Naked‐eye inspection of the cores allowed the identification of four tephra layers in core SK13 and five tephra layers in core SK19. Major element analyses on glass shards and mineral phases allowed correlation of the tephra layers between the two cores, and their attribution to six different Holocene explosive eruptions of southern Italy volcanoes. Two tephra layers have under‐saturated composition of glass shards (foiditic and phonolitic) and were correlated to the AD 472 and the Avellino (ca. 3.9 cal. ka BP) eruptions of Somma‐Vesuvius. One tephra layer has benmoreitic composition and was correlated to the FL eruption of Mount Etna (ca. 3.4 cal. ka BP). The other three tephra layers have trachytic composition and were correlated to Astroni (ca. 4.2 cal. ka BP), Agnano Monte Spina (ca. 4.5 cal. ka BP) and Agnano Pomici Principali (ca. 12.3 cal. ka BP) eruptions of Campi Flegrei. The ages of tephra layers are in broad agreement with eight ¹⁴C accelerator mass spectrometric measurements carried out on plant remains and charcoal from the lake sediments at different depths along the two cores. The recognition of distal tephra layers from Italian volcanoes allowed the physical link of the Holocene archive of Lake Shkodra to other archives located in the central Mediterranean area and the Balkans (i.e. Lake Ohrid). Five of the recognised tephra layers were recognised for the first time in the Balkans area, and this has relevance for volcanic hazard assessment and for ash dispersal forecasting in case of renewed explosive activity from some of the southern Italy volcanoes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Perceptions and responses to climate policy risks among California farmers

This paper considers how farmers perceive and respond to climate change policy risks, and suggests that understanding these risk responses is as important as understanding responses to biophysical climate change impacts. Based on a survey of 162 farmers in California, we test three hypotheses regarding climate policy risk: (1) that perceived climate change risks will have a direct impact on farmer's responses to climate policy risks, (2) that previous climate change experiences will influence farmer's climate change perceptions and climate policy risk responses, and (3) that past experiences with environmental policies will more strongly affect a farmer's climate change beliefs, risks, and climate policy risk responses. Using a structural equation model we find support for all three hypotheses and furthermore show that farmers’ negative past policy experiences do not make them less likely to respond to climate policy risks through participation in a government incentive program. We discuss how future research and climate policies can be structured to garner greater agricultural participation. This work highlights that understanding climate policy risk responses and other social, economic and policy perspectives is a vital component of understanding climate change beliefs, risks and behaviors and should be more thoroughly considered in future work.     

Process length variation of the cyst of the dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum in the North Pacific and Baltic‐Skagerrak region: calibration as an annual density proxy and first evidence of pseudo‐cryptic speciation

Process length variation of cysts of the dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum (Claparède et Lachmann) Bütschli in surface sediments from the North Pacific was investigated. The average process length showed a significant inverse relation to annual seawater density: σ_{t annual} = ?0.8674 × average process length + 1029.3 (R² = 0.84), with a standard error of 0.78 kg m^?3. A sediment trap study from Effingham Inlet in British Columbia revealed the same relationship between average process length and local seawater density variations. In the Baltic–Skagerrak region, the average process length variation was related significantly to annual seawater density: σ_{t annual} = 3.5457 × average process length ? 993.28 (R² = 0.86), with a standard error of 3.09 kg m^?3. These calibrations cannot be reconciled, which accentuates the regional character of the calibrations. This can be related to variations in molecular data (small subunit, long subunit and internal transcribed spacer sequences), which show the presence of several genotypes and the occurrence of pseudo‐cryptic speciation within this species. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A projection of future sea level

Evidence is reviewed that suggests faster sea-level rise when climate gets warmer. Four processes appear as dominating on a time scale of decades to centuries: melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps, changes in the mass balance of the large polar ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica), possible ice-flow instabilities (in particular on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet), and thermal expansion of ocean water.For a given temperature scenario, an attempt is made to estimate the different contributions. The calculation yields a figure of 9.5 cm of sea-level rise since 1850 AD, which is within the uncertainty range of estimates of the observed rise.A further 33 cm rise is found as most likely for the year 2050, but the uncertainty is very large ( = 32 cm). The contribution from melting of land ice is of the same order of magnitude as thermal expansion. The mass-balance effects of the major ice sheets tend to cancel to some extent (increasing accumulation on Antarctica, increasing ablation on Greenland). For the year 2100 a value of 66 cm above the present-day stand is found ( = 57 cm). The estimates of the standard deviation include uncertainty in the temperature scenario, as presented elsewhere in this volume.     

Computational parameter estimation for a maize crop

During a whole growing season, the evolution of the displacement height, d, and roughness length, z ₀, of a maize crop has been estimated by a measurement programme. The results have been used to check different types of existing models to calculate these parameters from canopy characteristics only; a simple geometric model and two matching models have been investigated. A geometric model is based on geometric features of the surface only. After a simple modification, the geometric model gives good results for the displacement height as well as for the roughness length.A matching model, based on gradient-diffusion theory, yields good results for the displacement height. The roughness parameter, however, is overestimated by 17%. By a simple modification, the model results could be improved considerably.A matching model, based on a second-order closure procedure, yields excellent results for the displacement height and good results for the roughness length. But it appears that, when applying this model, the plant density index and plant area density distribution as a function of height must be well known.     

Dynamical stability of convection cells in the upper mantle

Summary A two-dimensional flow model of an incompressible fluid with constant viscosity has been used to study the changes in the large-scale flow pattern (aspect ratio 4). Implications for convection in the Earth's mantle are discussed.

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