Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.     

Use of targets to track 3D displacements in highly vegetated areas affected by landslides

Monitoring landslides with terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) is currently a well-known technique. One problem often encountered is the vegetation that produces shadow areas on the scans. Indeed, the points behind a given obstacle are hidden and thus occluded on the point cloud. Thereby, locations monitored with terrestrial laser scanner are mostly rock instabilities and few vegetated landslides, being difficult or even impossible to survey vegetated slopes using this method with its classical non-full wave form. The Peney landslide (Geneva, Switzerland) is partially vegetated by bushes and trees, and in order to monitor its displacements during the drawdown of the Verbois reservoir located at its base, an alternative solution has been found. We combined LiDAR technique with 14 targets made of polystyrene placed at different locations inside and outside the landslide area. The obtained displacements were compared with classical measurement methods (total station and extensometer), showing good resemblance of results, indicating that the use of targets in highly vegetated areas could be an efficient alternative for mass movements monitoring.     

Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century. I. Historical Extraction Trends and Expected Demand

Industrial, technological, and economic developments depend on the availability of metallic raw materials. As a greater fraction of the Earth’s population has become part of developed economies and as developed societies have become more affluent, the demand on metallic mineral resources has increased. Yet metallic minerals are non-renewable natural resources, the supply of which, even if unknown and potentially large, is finite. An analysis of historical extraction trends for eighteen metals, going back to the year 1900, demonstrates that demand of metallic raw materials has increased as a result of both increase in world population and increase in per-capita consumption. These eighteen metals can be arranged into four distinct groups, for each of which it is possible to identify a consistent pattern of per-capita demand as a function of time. These patterns can, in turn, be explained in terms of the industrial and technological applications, and in some cases conventional uses as well, of the metals in each group. Under the assumption that these patterns will continue into the future, and that world population will grow by no more than about 50% by the year 2100, one can estimate the amount of metallic raw materials that will be required to sustain the world’s economy throughout the twenty-first century. From the present until the year 2100, the world can be expected to require about one order of magnitude more metal than the total amount of metal that fueled technological and economic growth between the age of steam and the present day. For most of the metals considered here, this corresponds to 5–10 times the amount of metal contained in proven ore reserves. The two chief driving factors of this expected demand are growth in per-capita consumption and present-day absolute population numbers. World population is already so large that additional population growth makes only a small contribution to the expected future demand of metallic raw materials. It is not known whether or not the amount of metal required to sustain the world’s economy throughout this century exists in exploitable mineral resources. In the accompanying paper, I show that it is nevertheless possible to make statistical inferences about the size distribution of the mineral deposits that will need to be discovered and developed in order to satisfy the expected demand. Those results neither prove nor disprove that the needed resources exist but can be used to improve our understanding of the challenges facing future supply of metallic raw materials.     

Exploring seven hundred years of transhumance,climate dynamic,fire and human activity through a historical mountain pass in central Spain

A high-altitude peat sequence from the heart of the Spanish Central System (Gredos range) was analysed through a multi-proxy approach to determine the sensitivity of high-mountain habitats to climate, fire and land use changes during the last seven hundred years, providing valuable insight into our understanding of the vegetation history and environmental changes in a mountain pass close to a traditional route of transhumance. The pollen data indicate that the vegetation was dominated by shrublands and grasslands with scattered pines in high-mountain areas, while in the valleys cereals, chestnut and olive trees were cultivated. Strong declines of high-mountain pines percentages are recorded at 1540, 1675, 1765, 1835 and 1925 cal AD, which may be related to increasing grazing activities and/or the occurrence of anthropogenic fires. The practice of mountain summer farming and transhumance deeply changed and redesigned the landscape of the high altitudes in central Spain (Gredos range) since the Middle Ages, although its dynamics was influenced in some way by climate variability of the past seven centuries.     

Unraveling the Peruvian Phase of the Central Andes: stratigraphy,sedimentology and geochronology of the Salar de Atacama Basin (22°30–23°S), northern Chile

The Salar de Atacama Basin holds important information regarding the tectonic activity, sedimentary environments and their variations in northern Chile during Cretaceous times. About 4000 m of high‐resolution stratigraphic columns of the Tonel, Purilactis and Barros Arana Formations reveal braided fluvial and alluvial facies, typical of arid to semi‐arid environments, interrupted by scarce intervals with evaporitic, aeolian and lacustrine sedimentation, displaying an overall coarsening‐upward trend. Clast‐count and point‐count data evidence the progressive erosion from Mesozoic volcanic rocks to Palaeozoic basement granitoids and deposits located around the Cordillera de Domeyko area, which is indicative of an unroofing process. The palaeocurrent data show that the source area was located to the west. The U/Pb detrital zircon geochronological data give maximum depositional ages of 149 Ma for the base of the Tonel Formation (Agua Salada Member), and 107 Ma for its middle member (La Escalera Member); 79 Ma for the lower Purilactis Formation (Limón Verde Member), and 73 Ma for the Barros Arana Formation. The sources of these zircons were located mainly to the west, and comprised from the Coastal Cordillera to the Precordillera. The ages and pulses record the tectonic activity during the Peruvian Phase, which can be split into two large events; an early phase, around 107 Ma, showing uplift of the Coastal Cordillera area, and a late phase around 79 Ma indicating an eastward jump of the deformation front to the Cordillera de Domeyko area. The lack of internal deformation and the thicknesses measured suggest that deposition of the units occurred in the foredeep zone of an eastward‐verging basin. This sedimentation would have ended with the K‐T phase, recognized in most of northern Chile.