Impact of anthropogenic CO 2 on the next glacial cycle

The model of Paillard and Parrenin (Earth Planet Sci Lett 227(3–4):263–271, 2004) has been recently optimized for the last eight glacial cycles, leading to two different relaxation models with model-data correlations between 0.8 and 0.9 (García-Olivares and Herrero (Clim Dyn 1–25, 2012b)). These two models are here used to predict the effect of an anthropogenic CO ₂ pulse on the evolution of atmospheric CO ₂, global ice volume and Antarctic ice cover during the next 300 kyr. The initial atmospheric CO ₂ condition is obtained after a critical data analysis that sets 1300 Gt as the most realistic carbon Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR), with the help of a global compartmental model to determine the carbon transfer function to the atmosphere. The next 20 kyr will have an abnormally high greenhouse effect which, according to the CO ₂ values, will lengthen the present interglacial by some 25 to 33 kyr. This is because the perturbation of the current interglacial will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf, causing that the relative maximum of boreal insolation found 65 kyr after present (AP) will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation.     

Influence of ENSO and of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Indian summer monsoon variability

Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability is forced from external factors (like the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) but it contains also an internal component that tends to reduce its potential for predictability. Large-scale and local monsoon indices based on precipitation and atmospheric circulation parameters are used as a measure of ISM variability. In a 9-members ensemble of AMIP-type experiments (with same boundary SST forcing and different initial conditions) their potential predictability is comparable using both local and large-scale monsoon indices. In the sample analyzed, about half of more predictable monsoon years coincide with El Niño and/or positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Summer monsoon characteristics during ENSO and IOD years are analyzed through composites computed over a three years period (i.e. one year before and one year after the event peak) to investigate the mutual relationship between the events lagged in time. The connection between ISM and IOD is mostly confined in the summer and autumn, while that with ENSO is stronger and extends more in time. In the coupled model results the IOD influence on the monsoon is large, even because in the model IOD events are intense and easily reproduced due to a strong air-sea feedback in the eastern side of the basin. Monsoon seasons preceding or following an El Niño or a La Niña event are not exactly symmetric, even in terms of their biennial character. In most of the cases, both in reanalysis and model, El Niño and positive IOD events tend to co-occur with larger anomalies either in the Indo-Pacific ocean sector or over India, while La Niña and negative IOD do not. From the observed record, the ENSO-IOD correlation is positive strong and significant since mid-60s and it may correspond with either strong or weak ENSO-monsoon relationship and with strong or weak IOD-monsoon relationship. A main difference between those periods is the relationship between Indian monsoon rainfall and SST in other ocean basins rather than the Indo-Pacific sector alone.     

Les composantes du déplacement séculaire du pôle d'inertie de la Terre

After homogenizing the declination systems of the ILS Catalogue, the secular motion of the mean pole is studied. Our analyses leads to two components of this motion: a progressive component (already known) and an elliptical one.     

Long-term deforestation in NW Spain: linking the Holocene fire history to vegetation change and human activities

The Holocene fire regime is thought to have had a key role in deforestation and shrubland expansion in Galicia (NW Spain) but the contribution of past societies to vegetation burning remains poorly understood. This may be, in part, due to the fact that detailed fire records from areas in close proximity to archaeological sites are scarce. To fill this gap, we performed charcoal analysis in five colluvial soils from an archaeological area (Campo Lameiro) and compared the results to earlier studies from this area and palaeo-ecological literature from NW Spain. This analysis allowed for the reconstruction of the vegetation and fire dynamics in the area during the last ca 11 000 yrs. In the Early Holocene, Fabaceae and Betula sp. were dominant in the charcoal record. Quercus sp. started to replace these species around 10 000 cal BP, forming a deciduous forest that prevailed during the Holocene Thermal Maximum until ～5500 cal BP. Following that, several cycles of potentially fire-induced forest regression with subsequent incomplete recovery eventually led to the formation of an open landscape dominated by shrubs (Erica sp. and Fabaceae). Major episodes of forest regression were (1) ～5500–5000 cal BP, which marks the mid-Holocene cooling after the Holocene Thermal Maximum, but also the period during which agropastoral activities in NW Spain became widespread, and (2) ～2000–1500 cal BP, which corresponds roughly to the end of the Roman Warm Period and the transition from the Roman to the Germanic period. The low degree of chronological precision, which is inherent in fire history reconstructions from colluvial soils, made it impossible to distinguish climatic from human-induced fires. Nonetheless, the abundance of synanthropic pollen indicators (e.g. Plantago lanceolata and Urtica dioica) since at least ～6000 cal BP strongly suggests that humans used fire to generate and maintain pasture.     

Low-order stabilized finite element for the full Biot formulation in soil mechanics at finite strain

This article presents a novel finite element formulation for the Biot equation using low-order elements. Additionally, an extra degree of freedom is introduced to treat the volumetric locking steaming from the effective response of the medium; its balance equation is also stabilized. The accuracy of the proposed formulation is demonstrated by means of numerical analyses.     

Spatiotemporal estimation of snow depth using point data from snow stakes,digital terrain models,and satellite data

Snow availability in Alpine catchments plays an important role in water resources management. In this paper, we propose a method for an optimal estimation of snow depth (areal extension and thickness) in Alpine systems from point data and satellite observations by using significant explanatory variables deduced from a digital terrain model. It is intended to be a parsimonious approach that may complement physical‐based methodologies. Different techniques (multiple regression, multicriteria analysis, and kriging) are integrated to address the following issues: We identify the explanatory variables that could be helpful on the basis of a critical review of the scientific literature. We study the relationship between ground observations and explanatory variables using a systematic procedure for a complete multiple regression analysis. Multiple regression models are calibrated combining all suggested model structures and explanatory variables. We also propose an evaluation of the models (using indices to analyze the goodness of fit) and select the best approaches (models and variables) on the basis of multicriteria analysis. Estimation of the snow depth is performed with the selected regression models. The residual estimation is improved by applying kriging in cases with spatial correlation. The final estimate is obtained by combining regression and kriging results, and constraining the snow domain in accordance with satellite data. The method is illustrated using the case study of the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Southern Spain). A cross‐validation experiment has confirmed the efficiency of the proposed procedure. Finally, although it is not the scope of this work, the snow depth is used to asses a first estimation of snow water equivalent resources.     

Pre‐Alpine discordant granitic dikes in the metamorphic core of the Betic Cordillera: tectonic implications

Pegmatite dikes bearing andalusite crosscut foliation S₂ in Alpujarride gneisses and schists. Post‐S₂ andalusite is transposed by a foliation S₃, defined by fibrolite, which affects the dikes. The dikes represent highly differentiated granitic magmas with low REE and Zr contents and a positive Eu anomaly. U‐Pb SHRIMP dating of magmatic zircons provided Pan‐African ages (cores) and late Variscan ages (rims). However, U‐rich rims also provided metamorphic Alpine ages, supporting a polyorogenic tectonometamorphic history for pre‐Mesozoic Alpujarride rocks.     

Generalized plasticity state parameter‐based model for saturated and unsaturated soils. Part 1: Saturated state

The behavior of granular materials is known to depend on its loose or dense nature, which in turns depends both on density and confining pressure. Many models developed in the past require the use of different sets of constitutive parameters for the same material under different confining pressures. The purpose of this paper is to extend a basic generalized plasticity model for sands proposed by Pastor, Zienkiewicz and Chan by modifying the main ingredients of the model flow—rule, loading–unloading discriminating direction and plastic modulus—to include a dependency on the state parameter. The proposed model is tested against the available experimental data on three different sands, using for each of them a single set of material parameters, finding a reasonably good agreement between experiments and predictions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Generalized plasticity state parameter‐based model for saturated and unsaturated soils. Part II: Unsaturated soil modeling

The aim of this paper is to extend the generalized plasticity state parameter‐based model presented in part 1 to reproduce the hydro‐mechanical behavior of unsaturated soils. The proposed model is based on two pairs of stress–strain variables and a suitable hardening law taking into account the bonding—debonding effect of suction and degree of saturation. A generalized state parameter for unsaturated state is proposed to reproduce soil behavior using a single set of material parameters. Generalized plasticity gives a suitable framework to reproduce not only monotonic stress path but also cyclic behavior. The hydraulic hysteresis during a drying—wetting cycle and the void ratio effect on the hydraulic behavior is introduced. Comparison between model simulations and a series of experimental data available, both cohesive and granular, are given to illustrate the accuracy of the enhanced generalized plasticity equation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Throughfall patterns in sugarcane and riparian forest: understanding the effect of sugarcane age and land use conversion

Sugarcane is an annual crop with a dynamic canopy that changes over time mainly because of genetic adaptation. There is uncertainty about the temporal trends of throughfall (TF) in this important commercial crop. In the present paper, we used troughs to measure TF in a third and fourth ratoon and subsequently in a fourth and fifth ratoon. Additional measurements were carried out in an adjacent riparian forest. There were no significant differences between cycles of sugarcane, growth phases and riparian forest. The TF results for ratoon crop and riparian forest in 2011/2012 were 76% and 79.5% of gross rainfall, respectively, while in 2012/2013, they were 79% and 78%, respectively. However, TF was remarkably lower in the riparian forest relative to ratoon from the second half of the culm formation and elongation phase (280 days after harvest) until harvest. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.