Including root reinforcement variability in a probabilistic 3D stability model

Forests play a significant role in protecting people, settlements in mountainous terrains from hydrogeomorphic hazards, including shallow landslides. Although several studies have investigated the interactions between forests and slope instabilities, a full understanding of them has not yet been obtained. Additionally, models that incorporate forest stand properties into slope failure probability analyses have not been developed. In principle, physical‐based models, which are powerful tools for landslide hazard analyses, represent an appropriate approach to linking stand properties and slope stability. However, the reliability of these models depends on numerous parameters that describe highly complex geotechnical and hydrological processes (e.g. potential failure depth, saturation ratio, root reinforcement, etc.) that are difficult to measure and model. In particular, the spatial heterogeneity of root reinforcement remains a problem, and the use of physically based models from a forest management perspective has been limited. This paper presents a procedure for assessing slope stability in terms of the Factor of Safety that accounts for forest stand characteristics such as tree density, average diameter at breast height and minimum distance between trees. The procedure combines a three‐dimensional (3D) slope stability model with an evaluation of the variability of root reinforcement in terms of a probability distribution, according to forest characteristics. Monte Carlo simulation is used to account for the residual uncertainties in both stand characteristics and 3D stability model parameters. The proposed method was applied in a subalpine catchment in the Italian Alps, mainly covered by coniferous forest and characterized by steep slopes and high landslide risk. The results suggest that the procedure is highly reliable, according to landslide inventory maps [area under the ROC curve (AUC) is 0.82 and modified success rate (MSR) is 0.70]. Thus, it represents a promising tool for studying the role of root reinforcement in landslide hazard mapping and guiding forest management from a slope stability perspective. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Plateau reduction by drainage divide migration in the Eastern Cordillera of Colombia defined by morphometry and 10Be terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides

Catchment‐wide erosion rates were defined using ¹⁰Be terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides for the Eastern Cordillera of the Colombian Andes to help determine the nature of drainage development and landscape evolution. The Eastern Cordillera, characterized by a smooth axial plateau bordered by steep flanks, has a mean erosion rate of 11 ± 1 mm/ka across the plateau and 70 ± 10 mm/ka on its flanks, with local high rates >400 mm/ka. The erosional contrast between the plateau and its flanks was produced by the increase in the orogen regional slope, derived from the progressive shortening and thickening of the Eastern Cordillera. The erosion rates together with digital topographic analysis show that the drainage network is dynamic and confirms the view that drainage divides in the Eastern Cordillera are migrating towards the interior of the mountain belt resulting in progressive drainage reorganization from longitudinal to transverse‐dominated rivers and areal reduction of the Sabana de Bogotá plateau. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Factors determining subsidence in urbanized floodplains: evidence from MT‐InSAR in Seville (southern Spain)

Major rivers have traditionally been linked with important human settlements throughout history. The growth of cities over recent river deposits makes necessary the use of multidisciplinary approaches to characterize the evolution of drainage networks in urbanized areas. Since under‐consolidated fluvial sediments are especially sensitive to compaction, their spatial distribution, thickness, and mechanical behavior must be studied. Here, we report on subsidence in the city of Seville (Southern Spain) between 2003 and 2010, through the analysis of the results obtained with the Multi‐Temporal InSAR (MT‐InSAR) technique. In addition, the temporal evolution of the subsidence is correlated with the rainfall, the river water column and the piezometric level. Finally, we characterize the geotechnical parameters of the fluvial sediments and calculate the theoretical settlement in the most representative sectors. Deformation maps clearly indicate that the spatial extent of subsidence is controlled by the distribution of under‐consolidated fine‐grained fluvial sediments at heights comprised in the range of river level variation. This is clearly evident at the western margin of the river and the surroundings of its tributaries, and differs from rainfall results as consequence of the anthropic regulation of the river. On the other hand, this influence is not detected at the eastern margin due to the shallow presence of coarse‐grain consolidated sediments of different terrace levels. The derived results prove valuable for implementing urban planning strategies, and the InSAR technique can therefore be considered as a complementary tool to help unravel the subsidence tendency of cities located over under‐consolidated fluvial deposits. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geomorphological changes in an arid transgressive coastal dune field due to natural processes and human impacts

Geomorphological changes in recent decades in an arid transgressive coastal dune system (Maspalomas, Gran Canaria, Canary Islands) are analyzed. The methodology used is based on the generation of two geomorphological maps (1961 and 2003) by interpretation of digital orthophotos. The overlay of both maps in a geographic information system (GIS) enabled the spatial and surface changes of the landforms to be determined, and the processes that generated these changes. Twelve cultural and geomorphological processes were identified from highest to lowest importance, namely: anthropization by urban occupation (114 ha changed), stabilization (92.5 ha), barchanization (37 ha), salinization/halophytication (15 ha), anthropization (12.4 ha), deflation (11.8 ha), dune loss/beach gain (11.3 ha), dune formation (9.6 ha), progradation (8 ha), retrogradation (7.7 ha), destabilization (2.7 ha) and flooding (0.7 ha). Geomorphological changes are associated with a combination of five main factors, three of anthropogenic origin and two natural ones. The natural factors are: (1) the arid climate, which favors changes occurring at high speed; (2) the existence of a progressive sedimentary deficit. Anthropogenic factors are: (3) construction of tourist urbanizations, infrastructures and facilities; (4) installation of equipment or infrastructure on the beaches; (5) the activities carried out by users. These human factors have altered the aeolian dynamics and reduced the area occupied by vegetation in some areas, causing changes in aeolian sedimentary processes. The geomorphological processes identified can be used as indicators of environmental change, allowing us to synthesize the changes in landforms detected, and group all combinations derived from the analysis by GIS and analyze them spatially. Thus, the environmental changes in the transgressive coastal dune systems could be interpreted more effectively. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A numerical study on seismic damage of masonry fortresses

Studies oriented to restoration and conservation of historical monumental buildings have recourse to structural analysis as a way to investigate the genuine structural features of the construction, to better understand its present condition and actual causes of existing damage, to estimate its safety conditions and to determine necessary remedial measures. Based on this background, this paper discusses on the seismic vulnerability of masonry fortresses by means of an analysis methodology based on three different analytical procedures, according to an increased knowledge of the structure. As a relevant case study the Albornoz fortress, a 14th stone masonry construction located in central Italy, was selected. Initially, the strategy proposed to perform this task was aimed at testing and developing an expeditious and non-destructive procedure to evaluate both the seismic vulnerability and the main mechanical properties of the different masonry typologies. The macroscale structural behavior of the fortress was then evaluated through a nonlinear static analysis (pushover) and a more simple approach based on the kinematic theorems of the limit analysis. From this point of view, by comparing the capacity of the construction to withstand lateral loads with the expected demands resulting from seismic actions, these methods provided a highly effective means of verifying the safety of the masonry structure and its vulnerability to extensive damage and collapse.     

Diagnosing drought using the downstreamness concept: the effect of reservoir networks on drought evolution

To effectively manage hydrological drought, there is an urgent need to better understand and evaluate its human drivers. Using the “downstreamness” concept, we assess the role of a reservoir network in the emergence and evolution of droughts in a river basin in Brazil. In our case study, the downstreamness concept shows the effect of a network of reservoirs on the spatial distribution of stored surface water volumes over time. We demonstrate that, as a consequence of meteorological drought and recovery, the distribution of stored volumes became spatially skewed towards upstream locations, which affected the duration and magnitude of hydrological drought both upstream (where drought was alleviated) and downstream (where drought was aggravated). The downstreamness concept thus appears to be a useful entry point for spatiotemporally explicit assessments of hydrological drought and for determining the likelihood of progression from meteorological drought to a human-modified hydrological drought in a basin.     

Coupling of tectonic factors and precipitation variability as a driver of Late Quaternary aggradation in Northeast Brazil

The coupling between tectonic factors and climate processes is a key element in understanding landscape evolution. However, few studies address this issue in the context of unglaciated tropical areas in passive continental margins. Thus, this research aimed to understand the origins and evolution of the geomorphological landscape in the eastern sector of Northeast Brazil along the Late Quaternary, between the Last Interstadial (Marine Isotopic State 3) and the Upper Holocene. The morphostratigraphic approach, coupled with sedimentological analyses and optically stimulated luminescence dating of sediments, showed that the depositional record stored in the landscape ranges from at least 60 000 years BP until the Upper Holocene. Depositional intervals suggest that there were moments of climatic instability followed by moments of relative geomorphological quiescence. Such active moments coincide chronologically with Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events, which are likely linked to changes in paleo-pluviosity that might respond to the dismantling of elluvial covers and colluvial deposition in the area. Likewise, reworking of hillslope materials led to increased deposition in the fluvial realm. In addition, such deposits might have been affected by the neotectonic complexity of the area, responsible for the creation of non-concatenated accommodation spaces, indicating a dynamics of uplifting and subsidence of blocks typical of passive margin taphrogenic environments. Therefore, the formative processes that led to the Late Quaternary deposition of sediments in a platform margin context reflect a coupling between tectonic and climatic factors. The former, driven by precipitation variability on a regional scale, triggered fluvial and high-energy hillslope processes that resulted in ubiquitous valley floor and piedmont aggradation, whereas the latter led to the dismantling of local base levels, transforming depositional units into new denudational landforms subject to the current climate dynamics. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical modeling of space-time wave extremes using WAVEWATCH III

A novel implementation of parameters estimating the space-time wave extremes within the spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III (WW3) is presented. The new output parameters, available in WW3 version 5.16, rely on the theoretical model of Fedele (J Phys Oceanogr 42(9):1601-1615, 2012) extended by Benetazzo et al. (J Phys Oceanogr 45(9):2261–2275, 2015) to estimate the maximum second-order nonlinear crest height over a given space-time region. In order to assess the wave height associated to the maximum crest height and the maximum wave height (generally different in a broad-band stormy sea state), the linear quasi-determinism theory of Boccotti (2000) is considered. The new WW3 implementation is tested by simulating sea states and space-time extremes over the Mediterranean Sea (forced by the wind fields produced by the COSMO-ME atmospheric model). Model simulations are compared to space-time wave maxima observed on March 10th, 2014, in the northern Adriatic Sea (Italy), by a stereo camera system installed on-board the “Acqua Alta” oceanographic tower. Results show that modeled space-time extremes are in general agreement with observations. Differences are mostly ascribed to the accuracy of the wind forcing and, to a lesser extent, to the approximations introduced in the space-time extremes parameterizations. Model estimates are expected to be even more accurate over areas larger than the mean wavelength (for instance, the model grid size).     

Geostatistical facies simulation with geometric patterns of a petroleum reservoir

During exploration and pre-feasibility studies of a typical petroleum project many analyses are required to support decision making. Among them is reservoir lithofacies modeling, preferably using uncertainty assessment, which can be carried out with geostatistical simulation. The resulting multiple equally probable facies models can be used, for instance, in flow simulations. This allows assessing uncertainties in reservoir flow behavior during its production lifetime, which is useful for injector and producer well planning. Flow, among other factors, is controlled by elements that act as flow corridors and barriers. Clean sand channels and shale layers are examples of such reservoir elements that have specific geometries. Besides simulating the necessary facies, it is also important to simulate their shapes. Object-based and process-based simulations excel in geometry reproduction, while variogram-based simulations perform very well at data conditioning. Multiple-point geostatistics (MPS) combines both characteristics, consequently it was employed in this study to produce models of a real-world reservoir that are both data adherent and geologically realistic. This work aims at illustrating how subsurface information typically available in petroleum projects can be used with MPS to generate realistic reservoir models. A workflow using the SNESIM algorithm is demonstrated incorporating various sources of information. Results show that complex structures (e.g. channel networks) emerged from a simple model (e.g. single branch) and the reservoir facies models produced with MPS were judged suitable for geometry-sensitive applications such as flow simulations.