The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain)

Abstract

Trends in high and low flows are valuable indicators of hydrological change because they highlight changes in various parts of the frequency distribution of streamflow series. This enables improved assessment of water availability in regions with high seasonal and inter-annual variability. There has been a substantial reduction in water resources in the Duero basin (Iberian Peninsula, Spain) and other areas of the Mediterranean region during the last 50 years, and this is likely to continue because of climate change. In this study, we investigated the evolution and trends in high and low flows in the Spanish part of the Duero basin, and in equivalent or closely-related precipitation indices for the period 1961–2005. The results showed a general trend of decrease in the frequency and magnitude of high flows throughout most of the basin. Moreover, the number of days with low flows significantly increased over this period. No clear relationship was evident between the evolution of high/low flows and changes in the distribution frequencies of the precipitation series. In contrast to what was expected, the number of days with heavy precipitation and the mean annual precipitation did not show significant trends across the basin, and the number of days without rainfall decreased slightly. The divergence between precipitation and runoff evolution was more accentuated in spring and summer. In the absence of trends in precipitation, it is possible that reforestation processes in the region, and increasing temperatures in recent decades, could be related to the decreasing frequency of high flows and the increasing frequency of low flows.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Morán-Tejeda, E., López-Moreno, J.I., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. and Ceballos-Barbancho, A., 2012. The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 591–611.     

On the Incorporation of the Effect of Crustal Structure into Empirical Strong Ground Motion Estimation

This article has two purposes. Firstly, a validation exercise of the modal summation technique for the computation of synthetic strong-motion records is performed for two regions of Europe (Umbria-Marche and south Iceland), using a variety of region specific crustal structure models, by comparing the predicted ground motion amplitudes with observed motions. It is found that the rate of decay of ground motions is well predicted by the theoretical decay curves but that the absolute size of the ground motions is underpredicted by the synthetic time-histories. This is thought to be due to the presence of low-velocity surface layers that amplify the ground motions but are not included in the crustal structure models used to compute the synthetic time-histories. Secondly, a new distance metric based on the computed theoretical decay curves is introduced which should have the ability to model the complex decay of strong ground motions. The ability of this new distance metric to reduce the associated scatter in empirically derived equations for the estimation of strong ground motions is tested. It is found that it does not lead to a reduction in the scatter but this is thought to be due to the use of crustal structure models that are not accurate or detailed enough for the regions studied. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Experimental investigation on the seismic performance of masonry buildings using shaking table testing

Masonry buildings worldwide exhibited severe damage and collapse in recent strong earthquake events. It is known that their brittle behavior, which is mainly due to the combination of low tensile strength, large mass and insufficient connection between structural elements, is the main limitation for their structural implementation in residential buildings. A new construction system for masonry buildings using concrete blocks units and trussed reinforcement is presented here and its seismic behavior is validated through shaking table tests. Dynamic tests of two geometrically identical two-story reduced scale (1:2) models have been carried out, considering artificial accelerograms compatible with the elastic response spectrum defined by the Eurocode 8. The first model was reinforced with the new proposed system while the second model was built with unreinforced masonry. The experimental analysis encompasses local and global parameters such as cracking patterns, failure mechanisms, and in-plane and out-of-plane behavior in terms of displacements and lateral drifts from where the global dynamic behavior of the two buildings is analyzed comparatively. Finally, behavior factors for the design recommendations in case of unreinforced masonry are also evaluated.     

The impact of dredge-fill on Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows: regression and patterns of recovery

Posidonia oceanica meadows can be severely damaged by dredge-fill operations. We report on the construction of gas pipelines that occurred between 1981 and 1993 in SW Sicily, Italy. A large portion of the meadow was mechanically removed, and the excavated trench was filled with a mosaic of substrates, ranging from sand to consolidated rock debris. Meadow loss and recovery were quantified over 7 years after the end of operations. We recorded an overall loss of 81.20 ha of meadow. Substrate strongly affected recovery as the percent cover by P. oceanica consistently increased on calcareous rubble, reaching values of 44.37 ± 3.05% in shallow sites after 7 years, whereas no significant increase occurred on other substrates. As in the Mediterranean Sea exploitation of coastal areas continues to grow with consequent impacts on P. oceanica meadows, this case study illustrates how artificial rubble-like materials could be employed to support the restoration of damaged meadows.     

Benthic foraminifera distribution in a tourist lagoon in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a response to anthropogenic impacts

Rodrigo de Freitas Lagoon, located in the Rio de Janeiro City, receives several types of polluted discharges. The knowledge of the sediment microfauna correlated with heavy metal and organic matter concentrations could supply important data about the conditions of the lagoon. The benthic foraminiferal assemblage presented larger diversity and more abundant samples in the lagoon entrance than in the inner area. The Ammonia tepida - Elphidiumexcavatum foraminiferal assemblage is characterized by dwarf, corroded and weak organisms. Agglutinated species were found only near the entrance. Low abundance values and sterility of five samples in the inner area (north/northeast) can be caused by high levels of heavy metals and organic matter. A. tepida shows negative correlation with increasing heavy metals values. PAHs and coprostanol high indexes, and the absence or low presence of microfauna in samples around the lagoon margin confirm illegal flows from gas stations and domestic sewage.     

Scale-dependent correlations between soil heavy metals and As around four coal-fired power plants of northern Greece

We analyse the concentration of five trace elements (As, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) in the topsoil of the Kozani-Ptolemais basin where four coal-fired power plants run to provide almost 47.8 % of electricity requirements in Greece. We assume that if the power plants have altered the spatial (co)variation of the analysed elements through their toxic by-products, their effect would be observable only on a small spatial scale, since deposition of airborne pollutants is more evident if it is near the emission source. We used Factorial Cokriging to estimate the small-scale correlations among soil elements and to compare them to large spatial-scale correlations. Soil samples were collected from 92 sites. Given the low concentrations in soil heavy metals and As, we observed no serious soil contamination risk. We estimated correlations among the analysed elements on two spatial scales. On the larger scale, Ni and As exhibited higher correlation and received higher weights for the first regionalized factor, contrary to Cu, Pb and Zn which weighted more for the second regionalized factor. On the small spatial scale As associated with neither Ni nor other heavy metals. We conclude that soil arsenic has been altered by enrichment caused by some power plants through fly ash deposition and/or disposal. However, enrichment of soil elements was detectable only on the smaller spatial scale because anthropogenic inputs in soil through airborne emissions and subsequent deposition are evident only in the vicinity of the emission source.     

Experimental testing, numerical modelling and seismic strengthening of traditional stone masonry: comprehensive study of a real Azorian pier

Stone masonry is one of the oldest building techniques used worldwide and it is known to exhibit poor behaviour under seismic excitations. In this context, this work aims at assessing the in-plane behaviour of an existing double-leaf stone masonry pier by experimental testing. Additionally, a detailed 3D finite element numerical analysis based on micro-modelling of the original pier is presented (fully describing the geometry and division of each individual elements, namely infill, blocks and joints) aiming at simulating the experimental test results. This numerical strategy can be seen as an alternative way of analysing this type of constructions, particularly useful for laboratory studies, and suitable for the calibration of simplified numerical models. As part of a wider research activity, this work is further complemented with the presentation of an effective retrofit/strengthening technique (reinforced connected plaster) to achieve a significant improvement of its in-plane cyclic response which is experimentally verified in the results presented herein.     

The 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake Sequence, Baja California, Mexico and Southernmost California, USA: Active Seismotectonics along the Mexican Pacific Margin

The El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake sequence started with a few foreshocks in March 2010, and a second sequence of 15 foreshocks of M?>?2 (up to M4.4) that occurred during the 24?h preceding the mainshock. The foreshocks occurred along a north?Csouth trend near the mainshock epicenter. The M _w 7.2 mainshock on April 4 exhibited complex faulting, possibly starting with a ~M6 normal faulting event, followed ~15?s later by the main event, which included simultaneous normal and right-lateral strike-slip faulting. The aftershock zone extends for 120?km from the south end of the Elsinore fault zone north of the US?CMexico border almost to the northern tip of the Gulf of California. The waveform-relocated aftershocks form two abutting clusters, each about 50?km long, as well as a 10?km north?Csouth aftershock zone just north of the epicenter of the mainshock. Even though the Baja California data are included, the magnitude of completeness and the hypocentral errors increase gradually with distance south of the international border. The spatial distribution of large aftershocks is asymmetric with five M5+ aftershocks located to the south of the mainshock, and only one M5.7 aftershock, but numerous smaller aftershocks to the north. Further, the northwest aftershock cluster exhibits complex faulting on both northwest and northeast planes. Thus, the aftershocks also express a complex pattern of stress release along strike. The overall rate of decay of the aftershocks is similar to the rate of decay of a generic California aftershock sequence. In addition, some triggered seismicity was recorded along the Elsinore and San Jacinto faults to the north, but significant northward migration of aftershocks has not occurred. The synthesis of the El Mayor-Cucapah sequence reveals transtensional regional tectonics, including the westward growth of the Mexicali Valley and the transfer of Pacific?CNorth America plate motion from the Gulf of California in the south into the southernmost San Andreas fault system to the north. We propose that the location of the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah, as well as the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes, may have been controlled by the bends in the plate boundary.     

Cotton Fiber/ZrO2, A New Material for Adsorption of Cr(VI) Ions in Water

The natural cotton fiber was used to synthesize an anion exchange, containing ZrO₂ film on its surface, NCFZC (natural cotton fiber/ZrO₂ composite). This anion exchanger was produced by the reaction of the zirconium oxychloride and hydroxyl groups on surface of the natural cotton fiber. The material was used for Cr(VI) ions adsorption studies. Adsorption equilibrium time and optimum pH for Cr(VI) adsorption were found to be 6 h and 4.0, respectively. The Langmuir and Temkin isotherms were used to models adsorption equilibrium data. The adsorption capacity of NCFZC was found to be 1.33 mmol/g. Kinetic studies showed that the rate of adsorption of Cr(VI) on NCFZC obeyed a pseudo‐second‐order kinetic model.     

1D and 2D site amplification effects at Tarcento (Friuli,NE Italy), 30 years later

A temporary accelerometer network has been installed in Tarcento (Friuli, NE Italy), a small town heavily hit by the 1976–1977 Friuli earthquake sequence, as a part of an ongoing research project aimed at ground motion simulation and generation of shakemaps in the near-field of an earthquake. The network operated from October 2008 to April 2010 and consisted of three K2 accelerographs with internal Episensor, distributed over a linear array of about 1.5 km length. Tarcento town had been chosen, at the end of the 1970s, as the ideal site for a pilot microzonation study, the first of this kind in Italy, in which a substantial number of field (and laboratory) tests were carried out in order to assess the mechanical properties of local alluvium deposits and their complex (3D) geometrical configuration. The data from the temporary network, illustrated herein, allow for proper verification and review of some of the quantitative predictions formulated in the 1980 study. As argued in the discussion section, we also believe that the data are apt to provide valuable information of more general interest on the complex seismic response of alluvium-filled valleys, and we show therein how the observations can be interpreted in the light of presently available parametric simulation studies and simplified criteria for handling basin amplification effects.