Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China,India, Nepal

Rapidly accelerating climate change in the Himalaya is projected to have major implications for montane species, ecosystems, and mountain farming and pastoral systems. A geospatial modeling approach based on a global environmental stratification is used to explore potential impacts of projected climate change on the spatial distribution of bioclimatic strata and ecoregions within the transboundary Kailash Sacred Landscape (KSL) of China, India and Nepal. Twenty-eight strata, comprising seven bioclimatic zones, were aggregated to develop an ecoregional classification of 12 ecoregions (generally defined by their potential dominant vegetation type), based upon vegetation and landcover characteristics. Projected climate change impacts were modeled by reconstructing the stratification based upon an ensemble of 19 Earth System Models (CIMP5) across four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios (i.e. 63 impact simulations), and identifying the change in spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Large and substantial shifts in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the KSL area by the year 2050, within all bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Over 76 % of the total area may shift to a different stratum, 55 % to a different bioclimatic zone, and 36.6 % to a different ecoregion. Potential impacts include upward shift in mean elevation of bioclimatic zones (357 m) and ecoregions (371 m), decreases in area of the highest elevation zones and ecoregions, large expansion of the lower tropical and sub-tropical zones and ecoregions, and the disappearance of several strata representing unique bioclimatic conditions within the KSL, with potentially high levels of biotic perturbance by 2050, and a high likelihood of major consequences for biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, conservation efforts and sustainable development policies in the region.     

Linear system techniques applied to the Fuenmayor Karst Spring, Huesca (Spain)

Black box identification techniques are very useful tools to study the relationship between rainfall and the discharge of karst aquifers. Autocorrelation, cross-correlation, cross-spectral, impulse response identification (Wiener–Hopf and error minimization methods) and parametric identification of transfer functions techniques have been used by different authors. A review of these techniques has been realized to assess the possibilities and limitations. The reviewed techniques are applied to a time rainfall–discharge series of Fuenmayor karst spring, (southern central Pyrenees, Spain) to establish the relative quality of the obtained models. The quality is evaluated with the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. In addition, effective rainfall has been used to improve the performance of every model. The whitening technique has been used in the cross-correlation technique with good results. The studied spring shows a Fontestorbes type behavior. The linearity of the system has been analyzed by the coherence function. Fuenmayor has an acceptable linear response, except for high frequency events. The parametric identification provides the best efficiency value E = 0.8164 and provides a proper transfer function, with five parameters (one zero, two poles, the gain and the delay). The prediction power of this transfer function is validated with another time series, with an efficiency value of E = 0.7904.     

Spatial modelling and uncertainty assessment of pyroclastic cover thickness in the Sorrento Peninsula

Assessing spatial variability of soil thickness is a critical issue for understanding and predicting slope processes. The present work was aimed at estimating the spatial scales at which the variation of pyroclastic cover thickness occurs in a sample area in the Sorrento Peninsula (Italy). Stochastic simulation was used to understand the spatial variability of pyroclastic cover thickness on Mount Pendolo and to assess its spatial uncertainty. In the study area, covering about 0.7 km², thickness measurements were collected using electrical resistivity tomography profiles, continuous core drillings and steel rod penetrometric tests. Variographic analysis revealed the occurrence of an anisotropic behaviour along the N50 and N140 directions. In the latter anisotropic direction, a nested variogram was fitted including (1) a long-range component which could be related to large-scale factors, like the curvature of the slope and contributing area and (2) a shorter scale variation which is probably associated with the occurrence of denudation processes or to the articulate cover/bedrock interface. To assess the spatial variability and uncertainty of pyroclastic cover thickness, a stochastic simulation algorithm was used and 500 equally probable images of cover thickness were yielded. The results showed that a better thickness distribution map can be drawn by simulating the data collected on the slope and at the footslope separately. The approach also allowed delineating the areas characterized by greater uncertainty, suggesting supplementary measurements to further improve the cover thickness distribution model, thus reducing the uncertainty.     

Multi-Modal Monitoring of Slip Along Frictional Discontinuities

Seismic wave transmission and digital image correlation (DIC) are employed to study slip processes along frictional discontinuities. A series of biaxial compression experiments are performed on gypsum specimens with non-homogeneous contact surfaces. The specimens are composed of two blocks with perfectly mated contact surfaces with a smooth surface with low frictional strength on the upper half and a rough surface with high frictional strength on the lower half. Compressional, P, and shear, S, wave pulses were transmitted through the discontinuity while digital images of the specimen surface were acquired during the test. A distinct peak in the amplitude of transmitted wave occurs prior to the peak shear strength and is considered a “precursor” to the failure. Precursors indicate that slip initiates from the smooth surface and extends to the rough surface as the shear load is increased. From the DIC data, slip is identified as a jump in the displacement field along the fracture that initiates from the smooth surface and propagates to the rough surface. Precursors are associated with an increase in the rate of slip across the discontinuity and are a measure of the reduction in the fracture shear stiffness.     

Corridor location: the multi-gateway shortest path model

The problem of corridor location can be found in a number of fields including power transmission, highways, and pipelines. It involves the placement of a corridor or rights-of-way that traverses a landscape starting at an origin and ending at a destination. Since most systems are subject to environmental review, it is important to generate competitive, but different alternatives. This paper addresses the problem of generating efficient, spatially different alternatives to the corridor location problem. We discuss the weaknesses in current models and propose a new approach which is designed to overcome many of these problems. We present an application of this model to a real landscape and compare the results to past work. Overall, the new model called the multi-gateway shortest path problem can generate a wide variety of efficient alignments, which eclipse what could be generated by past work.     

Non-linear stability of the equilibria in the gravity field of a finite straight segment

We study the non-linear stability of the equilibria corresponding to the motion of a particle orbiting around a finite straight segment. The potential is a logarithmic function and may be considered as an approximation to the one generated by elongated celestial bodies. By means of the Arnold's theorem for non-definite quadratic forms we determine the orbital stability of the equilibria, for all values of the parameter k of the problem, resonant cases included.     

Fire‐induced changes in soil water repellency increased fingered flow and runoff rates following the 2004 Huelva wildfire

Water repellency (WR) from fire‐affected soils can affect infiltration processes and increase runoff rates. We investigated the effects of fire‐induced changes in soil WR and the related soil hydrological response after one of the largest wildfires in Spain in recent years. The vertical distribution of WR in soil profiles was studied under oak and pine forests and the wetting pattern was analysed after rainfall simulations (85 mm h^?1 during 60 min). After burning, the persistence of WR in soils under oaks increased in the upper 0–5 cm of soil in comparison with pre‐fire WR, but no significant changes were observed under pines. After a fire, WR was stronger and the thickness of the water‐repellent layer increased in soils under pines in the upper 0–16 cm of soil. The hydrophobic layer was thinner under oaks, where no strong to extremely water‐repellent samples were observed below 12 (in burnt soils) and 8 cm (in unburnt soils). Uniform wetting was observed through soil depth in burnt and unburnt soils under oaks, as a consequence of the prevailing matrix flux infiltration. Water was mostly stored in the upper few centimetres and soil became rapidly saturated, favouring a continuous rise in the runoff rate during the experiments. Moisture profiles under pines showed a heterogeneous wetting pattern, with highly irregular wetting fronts, as a result of wettable and water‐repellent three‐dimensional soil patches. In this case, runoff rates on burnt plots increased in relation to unburnt plots, but runoff generation reached a steady state after 25–30 min of simulated rainfall at an intensity of 85 mm h^?1. Rainfall water infiltrated over a small part of the ponded area, where the vertical pressure of the water column overcame the WR. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Galaxy–QSO correlation induced by weak gravitational lensing arising from large-scale structure

Observational evidence shows that gravitational lensing induces an angular correlation between the distribution of galaxies and much more distant QSOs. We use weak gravitational lensing theory to calculate this angular correlation, updating previous calculations and presenting new results exploring the dependence of the correlation on the large-scale structure. We study the dependence of the predictions on a variety of cosmological models, such as cold dark matter models, mixed dark matter models and models based on quintessence. We also study the dependence on the assumptions made about the nature of the primordial fluctuation spectrum: adiabatic, isocurvature and power spectra motivated by the cosmic string scenario are investigated. Special attention is paid to the issue of galaxy biasing, which is fully incorporated. We show that different mass power spectra imply distinct predictions for the angular correlation, and therefore the angular correlation provides an extra source of information about cosmological parameters and mechanisms of structure formation. We compare our results with observational data and discuss their potential uses. In particular, it is suggested that the observational determination of the galaxy–QSO correlation may be used to give an independent measurement of the mass power spectrum.