Impact of anthropogenic CO 2 on the next glacial cycle

The model of Paillard and Parrenin (Earth Planet Sci Lett 227(3–4):263–271, 2004) has been recently optimized for the last eight glacial cycles, leading to two different relaxation models with model-data correlations between 0.8 and 0.9 (García-Olivares and Herrero (Clim Dyn 1–25, 2012b)). These two models are here used to predict the effect of an anthropogenic CO ₂ pulse on the evolution of atmospheric CO ₂, global ice volume and Antarctic ice cover during the next 300 kyr. The initial atmospheric CO ₂ condition is obtained after a critical data analysis that sets 1300 Gt as the most realistic carbon Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR), with the help of a global compartmental model to determine the carbon transfer function to the atmosphere. The next 20 kyr will have an abnormally high greenhouse effect which, according to the CO ₂ values, will lengthen the present interglacial by some 25 to 33 kyr. This is because the perturbation of the current interglacial will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf, causing that the relative maximum of boreal insolation found 65 kyr after present (AP) will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation.     

Collaborative Web‐GIS Design: A Case Study for Road Risk Analysis and Monitoring

This article presents a methodology for designing a WebGIS framework intended for automatically analyzing spatial data and updating statistics of interest with new information inserted daily by multiple users via a Web portal. A practical example is used on vehicle accident data for assessing risk in specific road segments. Two main blocks integrated together will be described: the collaborative block and the data‐analysis block. The former gives end‐users computer‐aided tools to view, insert, modify and manage data related to accidents and traffic monitoring sensors, whereas the latter is developed to automatically analyze the accident data coming from user's collaboration. Because different agencies can survey accident sites, a collaborative environment is necessary – and a Web‐based solution is ideal – for permitting multi‐user access and data insertion. A centralized approach to process the data in real time is described in all its components. Server‐side Structured Query Language functions optimize performance by using dedicated libraries for spatial processing and re‐structuring the attributes associated with elements which are consequently re‐classified for correct color‐scaling. The end‐product is a system that provides a seamless integration of front‐end tools for user collaboration and back‐end tools to update accident risk statistics in real time and provide them to stakeholders.     

Paleoflood events recorded by speleothems in caves

Speleothems are usually composed of thin layers of calcite (or aragonite). However, cemented detrital materials interlayered between laminae of speleothemic carbonate have been also observed in many caves. Flowstones comprising discontinuous carbonate layers form due to flowing water films, while flood events introduce fluviokarstic sediments in caves that, on occasion, are recorded as clayey layers inside flowstones and stalagmites. This record provides a potential means of understanding the frequency of palaeofloods using cave records. In this work, we investigate the origin of this type of detrital deposit in El Soplao Cave (Northern Spain). The age of the lowest aragonite layer of a flowstone reveals that the earliest flood period occurred before 500 ka, though most of the flowstone formed between 422 +69/‐43 ka and 400 +66/‐42 ka. This suggests that the cave was periodically affected by palaeoflood events that introduced detrital sediments from the surface as a result of occasional extreme rainfall events, especially at around 400 ka. The mineralogical data enable an evolutionary model for this flowstone to be generated based on the alternation of flood events with laminar flows and carbonate layers precipitation that can be extrapolated to other caves in which detrital sediments inside speleothems have been found. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fire severity and surface rock fragments cause patchy distribution of soil water repellency and infiltration rates after burning

Although fire‐induced soil water repellency (SWR) and its effects on soil hydrology and geomorphology have been studied in detail, very few studies have considered the effect of rock fragments resting on the soil surface or partly embedded in soil. In this research, we have studied the effect of rock fragments on the strength and spatial distribution of fire‐induced SWR at different fire severities. A fire‐affected area was selected for this experiment and classified into different zones according to fire severity (unburned, low, moderate and high) and rock fragment cover (low, <20% and high, >60%). During 7 days after fire, SWR and infiltration rates were assessed in the soil surface covered by individual rock fragments and in the midpoint between two adjacent rock fragments (with maximum spacing of 20 cm). SWR increased with fire severity. Rock fragments resting on the soil surface increased the heterogeneity of the spatial distribution of fire‐induced SWR. SWR increased significantly with rock fragment cover in bare areas under moderate and high fire severity, but quantitatively important changes were only observed under high fire severity. In areas with a low rock fragment cover, water repellency from soil surfaces covered by rock fragments increased relative to bare soil surfaces, with increasing SWR. In areas with a high rock fragment cover, SWR increased significantly from non‐covered to covered soil surfaces only after low‐severity burning. Rock fragment cover did not affect infiltration rates, although it decreased significantly in soil surfaces after high‐severity burning in areas under low and high rock fragment cover. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of the weightiness of site effects on reinforced concrete (RC) building seismic behaviour: The Adra town example (SE Spain)

The damage distribution in Adra town (south‐eastern Spain) during the 1993 and 1994 Adra earthquakes (5.0 magnitude), that reached a maximum intensity degree of VII (European Macroseismic Scale (EMS scale)), was concentrated mainly in the south‐east zone of the town and the most relevant damage occurred in reinforced concrete (RC) buildings with four or five storeys. In order to evaluate the influence of ground condition on RC building behaviour, geological, geomorphological and geophysical surveys were carried out, and a detailed map of ground surface structure was obtained. Short‐period microtremor observations were performed in 160 sites on a 100m × 100m dimension grid and Nakamura's method was applied in order to determine a distribution map of soil predominant periods. Shorter predominant periods (0.1–0.3 s) were found in mountainous and neighbouring zones and larger periods (greater than 0.5 s) in thicker Holocene alluvial fans. A relationship T = (0.049 ± 0.001)N, where T is the natural period of swaying motion and N is the number of storeys, has been empirically obtained by using microtremor measurements at the top of 38 RC buildings (ranging from 2 to 9 storeys). 1‐D simulation of strong motion on different soil conditions and for several typical RC buildings were computed, using the acceleration record in Adra town of the 1993 earthquake. It is noteworthy that all the aforementioned results show the influence of site effects in the degree and distribution of observed building damage. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recherches complémentaires sur le bases du calculateur météorologique «Temp»

Résumé La formule de base, traduisant une propriété analytique d'une classe très générale de fonctions, est un corollaire du théorème fondamental démontré dans un mémoire précédent, d'après lequel, étant donnés une fonction continue,p(, ,t) des points (, ) d'une surface régulière fermée et du temps et le champ d'un vecteur vitesse de transfert ou d'advection tangent à et ayant des lignes de flux fermées et régulières, il existe un opérateur spatial, linéaire, non singulierA tel que la fonctionA(p+Const.) soit purement advective par rapport a (sans creusement ni comblement). Ce théorème peut être exprimé par l'équation , où est un opérateur spatial, linéaire et non singulier, fonction deA.La détermination de peut être faite, soit en comparant deux formes différentes de la solution générale de l'équation en , soit en utilisant un raisonnement a priori très simple. On arrive ainsi au résultat pour un certain scalaireu(, ).Dans le cas oùp(, ,t) est la perturbation de la pression sur la surface du géoïde l'équation résulte aussi, comme nous l'avons montré dans le mémoire précédent, de notre théorie hydrodynamique des perturbations. On montre ici que la même équation peut encore être déduite de l'équation de continuité associée à la condition d'équilibre quasi statique selon la verticale.Comme applications de la formule de base (solution générale de l'équation enM), on étudie les problèmes suivants: 1^o creusement et comblement en général; 2^o creusement et comblement des centres et des cols; 3^o mouvement des centres et des cols; 4^o instabilité d'un champ moyen; 5^o propriétés spatiales des champsp(, ,t) et des vecteurs d'advection analytiques.Après une discussion des erreurs de la prévision d'un champp(, ,t) par la formule de base, du fait des erreurs des observations et du fonctionnement du calculateur, on examine quelques particularités du transfert ou advection d'un champf ₀(, ) par le vecteur . Enfin, le dernier chapitre du mémoire donne des éclaircissements complémentaires sur la structure du calculateur électronique «Temp» (qui effectue automatiquement les opérations mathématiques de la formule de base) et expose l'état actuel de sa construction.

---

Summary The basic formula, expressing an analytical property of a very general class of functions, is a corollary of the fundamental theorem, proved in a previous paper, according to which, given a functionp(, ,t) of the points (, ) of a closed regular surface and of the time, and a transfer or advection velocity vector tangent to and having regular closed streamlines, there is a spatial, linear, non singular operatorA such thatA(p+const.) is a purely advective function in respect to (no deepening). This theorem can be expressed by the equation where is a spatial, linear, non singular operator depending onA.The determination of can be attained, either by the comparison of two different forms of the general solution of the -equation, or by a simple a priori reasonning. The conclusion is thus reached that for a certain scalaru(, ).Whenp(, ,t) is the pressure perturbation at sea level, it was shown, in the preceding paper, that the equation can also be derived from our hydrodynamical perturbation theory. We now show that for this particular case, the same equation is also a consequence of the equation of continuity together with the condition of quasi statical vertical equilibrium.The following problems are then analysed by means of the basic formula: 1^o deepening and filling in general; 2^o deepening and filling of the centres and cols; 3^o motion of the centres and cols; 4^o instability of a mean field; 5^o spatial properties of the analytical fields and advection vectors .The errors in the forecast of a field,p(, ,t) by means of the basic formula, due to the observational and computational errors, are discussed, and some peculiarities of the transfer or advection of a fieldf ₀(, ) by are examined. Finally, complementary points are disclosed on the structure of the electronic computer «Temp» which performs automatically the mathematical operations of the basic formula, and a brief report is given of the present state of its construction.

     

Correction to: Sea-state contributions to sea-level variability in the European Seas

Ocean Dynamics - A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-020-01434-9     

Coseismic Three-Dimensional Displacements Determined Using SAR Data: Theory and an Application Test

We present a methodology to construct three-dimensional deformation maps using different parameters that can be extracted using SAR data. We apply the methodology using ENVISAT SAR data before and after the December 26^th, 2003 M_w 6.6 Bam earthquake in Iran to determine spatial quasi-continuous three-dimensional coseismic deformation maps. Two near vertical deformation offset components are computed using Envisat ASAR differential interferometry (DInSAR), while two horizontal deformation offset components are measured using sub-pixel correlation techniques applied to ASAR amplitude images. Using the presented methodology, we combine four unevenly precise independent projections of surface coseismic deformation to obtain the full three-dimensional coseismic deformation field caused by an earthquake. The full 3-D coseismic displacement vector is modeled using elastic deformation models constraining details of the fault geometry and slip distribution at depth. Results from the inversion are interpreted in the framework of the Iranian present-day tectonism. Full exploitation of dense 3-D coseismic surface deformation using SAR data, even for moderate earthquakes, should facilitate distinguishing between different interpretations of the mechanical properties of seismically active areas and within the inherent ambiguity of the geophysical inversion solutions.     

Seismic signals in geothermal areas of active volcanism: a case study from ‘La Fossa’, Vulcano (Italy)

Since the last eruption (1888–1890) volcanism at Vulcano, Aeolian Archipelago, southern Tyrrhenian Sea, has taken the form of persistent fumarolic activity. The gas-vapour phases of the geothermal systems are mainly discharged within two restricted areas about 1 km apart from each other, in the northern part of the island. These areas are La Fossa crater, and the beach fumaroles of the Baia di Levante. Fluids released at the two main fumarolic fields display quite different chemical and temperature characteristics, implying different origins. The local seismicity essentially takes the form of discrete shocks of shallow origin (depth1 km) at La Fossa, usually with energy < 10¹³ ergs. They are thought to be related to the uprise of pressurized hot gases and vapours discharged at the crater fumaroles. The present investigation points to the existence of two principal categories of seismic events (called M-shocks and N-shocks). These are short events (normally < 10 s). M-type shocks are thought to be due to resonance vibrations within the interior of the volcano, probably driven by the excitation of shock-waves within cavities deeply affected by deposition and alteration of self-sealant hydrothermal minerals. N-type events display features that resemble those of volcano-tectonic earthquakes, but have no recognizable S-phases. Here they are tentatively attributed to microfracturing of rocks which have been extensively hydrothermally altered. Results of the present study permit a preliminary conceptual model of the local shallow seismic processes in the framework of geochemical modelling of fumarolic activity and geological inferences from geothermal drilling.