The activity of Vesuvius in the next millennium

The time distribution of the historical eruptions of Vesuvius allows the forecasting of the activity of the volcano for the next millennium according to three independent models. The next event with volcanic explosivity index (VEI)=4 is likely to occur during the next few decades followed by a decreasing number of smaller eruptions in the successive few centuries and by a very long period of quiescence up to the beginning of the following fourth millennium when the next Plinian event (VEI=5) might occur.     

Hydraulic characterization and hydrological behaviour of a pilot permeable pavement in an urban centre,Brazil

Considering all the alterations on hydrology and water quality that urbanization process brings, permeable pavement (PP) is an alternative to traditional impermeable asphalt and concrete pavement. The goal of the PP and other low impact development devices is to increase infiltration and reduce peak runoff flows. These structures are barely used in Brazil aiming stormwater management, one of the big hydrological issues in cities throughout the country, with increasing urbanization rates. The main objective of this paper is the hydraulic characterization of a PP and the assessment of its hydrological efficiency from the point of view of the infiltration process. The study focuses on a pilot area in a parking lot in an urban area (Recife, Brazil). Soil elements filling the voids between concrete elements were sampled (particle size density, water contents) and tested with water infiltration experiments at several points of the 3 m × 1.5 m surface pilot area. Beerkan Estimation of Soil Transfer parameters algorithm was applied to the infiltration experiment data to obtain the hydraulic characteristics of the soil composing the PP surface layer, the concrete grid pavers (with internal voids filled with natural soil) permeability being neglected. Results show that the soil hydraulic characteristics vary spatially within the pilot area and that the soil samples have different hydraulic behaviours. The hydraulic characteristics derived from Beerkan Estimation of Soil Transfer parameters analysis were implemented into Hydrus code to simulate runoff, infiltration and water balance over a year. The numerical simulation showed the good potential of the PP for rainfall–runoff management, which demonstrates that PP can be used to retrofit existing parking infrastructure and to promote hydrological behaviour close to natural soils. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.