Learning and climate change

Abstract

Learning—i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty—plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductions, analyses of how new information could affect the prospects for reaching and maintaining political agreements and for adapting to climate change, and explorations of how learning could lead us astray rather than closer to the truth. Despite the diversity of this new work, a clear consensus on a central point is that the prospect of learning does not support the postponement of emissions reductions today.     

Estimating Sensible and Latent Heat Fluxes over an Inland Water Body Using Optical and Microwave Scintillometers

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - Observations of turbulent heat fluxes over inland water bodies are scarce despite being critical to adequate lake parametrization for numerical weather forecast and...     

A new assemblage of ray-finned fishes (Teleostei) from the Lower Oligocene “Schistes à Meletta” from the Glières plateau, Bornes Massif, eastern France

A recently discovered fish assemblage from the “Schistes à Meletta” facies (Lower Oligocene) of the Glières Plateau, Bornes Massif, Haute–Savoie, eastern France is described. The assemblage, comprising specimens ranging from fully-articulated skeletons to isolated scattered ossifications, is composed of Anenchelum cf. glarisianum, Pristigenys sp., Fistularia sp., Caranx cf. glarisianus alongside indeterminate teleosts. This new assemblage greatly increases the fish diversity previously known from the “Schistes à Meletta” of this area. The fauna shows biogeographic affinities with assemblages from the Peritethys domain, in particular from the Helvetic molassic basin and from the Paratethys. The genera identified at the Glières locality are represented today by species living in tropical nearshore environments together with species from the open sea. A possible explanation is that the environment of deposition was rather deep, and that shallow-water fishes were brought in by turbidity currents.     

Monitoring the evolution of irrigated areas with Landsat images using backward and forward change detection analysis in the Kou watershed,Burkina Faso

The Kou watershed is characterized by important water resources used for drinking, agriculture (especially in the irrigated areas), industry and the preservation of aquatic fauna and flora. For several decades, there has been increasing pressure on the Kou's water resources, partly because of the expansion of the irrigated agricultural areas. This study was conducted to examine this issue, focusing on one specific irrigated area. In order to monitor the expansion of irrigated areas in developing countries, a low-cost remote sensing method based on Landsat images and aerial photographs was developed. The method is based on maximum-likelihood classification, followed by backward and forward change detection analysis requiring agronomic expertise. Using pixel trajectory analysis, the method connects all pixels to their consecutive states in order to correct their current states. The study showed that the irrigated area has expanded by almost 70% over 20 years, with most of this expansion occurring in the past 10 years. The method, if validated, could be used to obtain better information on past occupation in the rural irrigated areas for which there is currently no archived data, making temporal analyses impossible.     

The SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue (SHEEC) for the time period 1900–2006 and its comparison to the European-Mediterranean Earthquake Catalogue (EMEC)

This short communication describes the differences of the seismicity data file of the SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue from 1900 to 2006 in comparison to the European-Mediterranean Earthquake Catalogue by Grünthal and Wahlström (J Seismol 16:535–570, 2012). SHARE is the EC project Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe. Differences occur in the very north of the study area, in Greece and adjacent areas, and with respect to local volcanic earthquakes at Etna, Italy.     

Accumulation of Copper and Zinc in Danish Agricultural Soils in Intensive Pig Production Areas

Geografisk Tidsskrift, Danish Journal of Geography 105(2):15–22, 2005

The change of Cu and Zn concentrations in Danish agricultural soils was studied in areas with intensive pig production. Cu and Zn are found in pig manure as the metals are added to pig feed as growth promoters. The changes in concentrations of total and 0.02 MEDTA extractable Cu and Zn in soils from 1986 to 1998 were determined from samples taken at two depths (0–25 cm and 25–50 cm) from 73 sites. Pig manure and mineral fertilizer was added to 60 sites whereas fertilizer only was used on 13 sites. During the survey period soil Cu concentrations increased in both depths but mostly in the sites where pig manure was added. Furthermore, the results indicated that some plant-available Cu and Zn were transported from the topsoil to the subsoil. No significant change in soil Zn concentration was found although a slight reduction was observed. Comparing soil metal concentrations observed in 1998 to the total pig manure application in a 12-year period, it was observed that application of manure caused an accumulation of Cu and of Zn in the upper 50 cm soil. The accumulation rates correspond to the Cu and Zn concentrations in the pig manure.     

The History of Archaeological Research in North East Greenland: Putting the GeoArk Project into Perspective

Geografisk Tidsskrift—Danish Journal of Geography 110(2):117–129, 2010

Starting with a brief presentation of the GeoArk Project and its goals, this paper focuses on the archaeological research history of North East Greenland, in particular the area of Sabine Ø and Clavering Ø, in order to view the current project in a wider context. The paper questions the myths about the ‘virgin’ land and it demonstrates how a number of expeditions, activities of professional hunters and trappers, and geopolitical matters in dispute between Denmark and Norway during the 1930s dramatically determined the quite ill fortune of the archaeological sites and monuments of the Thule culture in the study area.     

Quaternary coastline evolution of Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania)

Lake Ohrid (between FYR of Macedonia and Albania), situated in an active tectonic region of the Balkanides, is characterized by N ?? S trending active faults. To reconstruct the Holocene shoreline evolution we investigated the coastline using sediment cores and geophysical methods to image sedimentary and tectonic structures. We revealed areas of differing sedimentation regimes. The plains north and south of the lake are dominated by clastic input related to climate variations and uplift/erosion, whereas the steep western and eastern margins are controlled by recent tectonics. Furthermore, no evidence for a much higher lake-level during the Holocene was found in the plains north and south of the lake, except rare temporary floodings. This is supported by mappings of the limestone cliffs around Lake Ohrid, which yielded no evidence for abrasional platforms or notches as indicators for past highstands.