Impact of climate warming on upper layer of the Bering Sea

The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO₂ at a rate of 1% per year until CO₂ reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2°C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1°C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO₂ doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Current approaches to MRV in South Africa: a scoping study

It is shown that there are MRV-related activities underway in South Africa, particularly focusing on measuring electricity consumption and monitoring GHG emissions. Yet currently many of these activities happen in parallel systems within multi-polar governance structures. A bottom-up perspective of MRV in South Africa, informed by interviews, workshops, desktop research, and stakeholder consultations, is provided and the systems, data, methodologies, and the institutional environment relevant to a South African MRV system are examined. The development of the local monitoring and evaluation system, and its relevance within the international MRV context, is also discussed. Some recommendations are made: most importantly, there is a need for a coherent approach to be developed, one that is coordinated by government and built on existing MRV systems.     

Temporal Pointing Variations of the Solar Dynamics Observatory’s HMI and AIA Instruments on Subweekly Time Scales

Achieving subarcsecond co-registration across varying time-lines of multi-wavelength and instrument images is difficult and requires an accurate characterization of the instrument pointing jitter. We investigated the internal pointing errors on daily and yearly time-scales that occur across the Solar Dynamics Observatory’s (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI). Using cross-correlation techniques on the AIA 1700 Å passband and the HMI line-of-sight magnetograms from three years of observational image pairs at approximately three-day intervals, internal pointing errors were quantified. Pointing variations of ±?0.26″ (jitter-limited) and ±?0.50″ in the solar East–West (x) and North–South (y) directions, respectively, were measured. AIA observations of the Venus transit in June 2012 were used to measure existing coalignment offsets in all passbands. We found that the AIA passband pointing variations are 〈ΔX _CO〉=1.10″±1.41″ and 〈ΔY _CO〉=1.25″±1.24″ when aligned to the HMI nominal image center, referred to here as the CutOut technique. Minimal long-term pointing variations found between limb and correlation derived pointings provide evidence that the image-center positions provided by the instrument teams achieve single-pixel accuracy on time scales shorter than their characterization. However, daily AIA passband pointing variations of ??1.18″ indicate that autonomous subarcsecond co-registration is not fully achieved yet.     

Relative sea‐level observations in western Scotland since the Last Glacial Maximum for testing models of glacial isostatic land movements and ice‐sheet reconstructions

Observations of relative sea‐level change and local deglaciation in western Scotland provide critical constraints for modelling glacio‐isostatic rebound in northern Britain over the last 18 000 years. The longest records come from Skye, Arisaig and Knapdale with a shorter, Holocene, record from Kintail. Biostratigraphic (diatom, pollen, dinoflagellate, foraminifera and thecamoebian), lithological and radiocarbon analyses provide age and elevation parameters for each sea‐level index point. All four sites reveal relative sea‐level change that is highly non‐monotonic in time as the local vertical component of glacio‐isostatic rebound and eustasy (or global meltwater influx) dominate at different periods. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geochemistry,dispersal, volumes and chronology of Holocene silicic tephra layers from the Katla volcanic system,Iceland

At least 12 silicic tephra layers (SILK tephras) erupted between ca. 6600 and ca. 1675 yr BP from the Katla volcanic system, have been identified in southern Iceland. In addition to providing significant new knowledge on the Holocene volcanism of the Katla system which typically produces basaltic tephra, the SILK tephras form distinct and precise isochronous marker horizons in a climatically sensitive location close to both the atmospheric and marine polar fronts. With one exception the SILK tephras have a narrow compositional range, with SiO₂ between 63 and 67%. Geochemically they are indistinguishable from ocean transported pumice found on beaches in the North Atlantic region, although they differ significantly from the silicic component of the North Atlantic Ash Zone One (NAAZO). Volumes of airborne SILK tephra range from 0.05 to 0.3 km³. We present new isopach maps of the six largest layers and demonstrate that they originate within the Katla caldera. The apparently stable magma system conditions that produced the SILK tephras may have been established as a consequence of the eruption of the silicic component of NAAZO (ca. 10.3 ka) and disrupted by another large‐scale event, the tenth century ad Eldgjá eruption (ca. 1 ka). Despite the current long repose, silicic activity of this type may occur again in the future, presenting hitherto unknown hazards. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relative sea‐level changes,glacial isostatic modelling and ice‐sheet reconstructions from the British Isles since the Last Glacial Maximum

While contributing <1 m equivalent eustatic sea‐level rise the British Isles ice sheet produced glacio‐isostatic rebound in northern Britain of similar magnitude to eustatic sea‐level change, or global meltwater influx, over the last 18 000 years. The resulting spatially variable relative sea‐level changes combine with observations from far‐field locations to produce a rigorous test for quantitative models of glacial isostatic adjustment, local ice‐sheet history and global meltwater influx. After a review of the attributes of relative sea‐level observations significant for constraining large‐scale models of the isostatic adjustment process we summarise long records of relative sea‐level change from the British Isles and far‐field locations. We give an overview of different global theoretical models of the isostatic adjustment process before presenting intercomparisons of observed and predicted relative sea levels at sites in the British Isles and far‐field for a range of Earth and ice model parameters in order to demonstrate model sensitivity and the resolving power available from using evidence from the British Isles. For the first time we show a good degree of fit between relative sea‐level observations and predictions that are based upon global Earth and ice model parameters, independently derived from analysis of far‐field data, with a terrain‐corrected model of the British Isles ice sheet that includes extensive glaciation of the North Sea and western continental shelf, that does not assume isostatic equilibrium at the Last Glacial Maximum and keeps to trimline constraints of ice surface elevation. We do not attempt to identify a unique solution for the model lithosphere thickness parameter or the local‐scale detail of the ice model in order to provide a fit for all sites, but argue that the next stage should be to incorporate an ice‐sheet model that is based on quantitative, glaciological model simulations. We hope that this paper will stimulate this debate and help to integrate research in glacial geomorphology, glaciology, sea‐level change, Earth rheology and quantitative modelling. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.