A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

Tsunami Probability in the Caribbean Region

We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ~500-year empirical record compiled by O’Loughlin and Lander (2003) was used to calculate an empirical tsunami probability map, the first of three constructed for this study. However, it is unclear whether the 500-year record is complete, so we conducted a seismic moment-balance exercise using a finite-element model of the Caribbean-North American plate boundaries and the earthquake catalog, and found that moment could be balanced if the seismic coupling coefficient is c = 0.32. Modeled moment release was therefore used to generate synthetic earthquake sequences to calculate 50 tsunami runup scenarios for 500-year periods. We made a second probability map from numerically-calculated runup rates in each cell. Differences between the first two probability maps based on empirical and numerical-modeled rates suggest that each captured different aspects of tsunami generation; the empirical model may be deficient in primary plate-boundary events, whereas numerical model rates lack backarc fault and landslide sources. We thus prepared a third probability map using Bayesian likelihood functions derived from the empirical and numerical rate models and their attendant uncertainty to weight a range of rates at each 20 km by 20 km coastal cell. Our best-estimate map gives a range of 30-year runup probability from 0–30% regionally.     

A comparison of the photospheric and interplanetary magnetic fields during the flight of Mariner IV

The polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field observed by the Mariner IV spacecraft is compared to the polarity of the photospheric magnetic field observed with the solar magnetograph at Mt. Wilson Observatory. Unlike the results obtained from observations during the flight of IMP-I, these polarities are not well correlated when the photospheric polarity is determined from data along a narrow latitudinal strip. It is suggested that the structure of the interplanetary field is often related to major features in the photospheric field that are observed over a broad range of solar latitudes.     

Sources of magnetic susceptibility in a slate

Magnetic susceptibility and its anisotropy in the Borrowdale Volcanic slates at Kentmere in the English Lake District are attributed largely to preferred orientation of a paramagnetic chlorite of diabantite-ripidolite composition. In units of 10⁻⁶ cgs/g, the principal susceptibilities for the slates are 9.61; 9.42; 8.69 and for the chlorite grains the minimum anisotropy is represented by principal susceptibilities of 11.57; 11.22 and 9.15. Because the magnetic susceptibility is carried by a tightly packed, matrix-forming mineral that has recrystallised during the deformation it is not possible to imagine simple grain rotation as being responsible for the anisotropy of susceptibility.     

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2006

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2006. During this period, 572 earthquakes and 91 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. Of these earthquakes, two occurred in conjunction with the construction of the new Gotthard railway tunnel and 165 were induced artificially by the stimulation of a proposed geothermal reservoir beneath the city of Basel. With 20 events with M _L ≥ 2.5, five of which were artificially induced, the seismic activity in the year 2006 was far below the average over the previous 31 years. Nevertheless, six events were felt by the public, most prominently the strongest of the induced Basel events (M _L 3.4), which caused some non-structural building damage. Noteworthy are also the two earthquakes near Cortaillod (M _L 3.2), on the shore of Lake Neuchatel, and in Val Mora (M _L 3.5), between the Engadin and Val Müstair, as well as the 42 aftershocks of the M _L 4.9 Vallorcine earthquake, between Martigny and Chamonix, of September 2005. Editorial handling: Stefan Bucher     

Quantitative textural analysis of packings of elongate crystals

The spatial distribution of grains in a solidifying igneous rock controls the physical properties of the crystal mush, and in turn is controlled by the rate of crystal growth and accumulation. A predominant non-spherical habit for igneous minerals brings into question the use of spherical particles in reference packings used for quantification of spatial distribution. Furthermore, variations of crystal clustering/ordering with length scale require spatial statistics which take into account the distribution of particles beyond nearest neighbours. Using random close packings of spherocylinders, we demonstrate the importance of aspect ratio for the aggregation index (usually known as R) and show that packings of spherical particles have more structure than packings of rods. The spatial distribution functions demonstrate that the plagioclase grains in the colonnade from the Holyoke basalt are clustered on a length scale of 0.5 mm. Understanding the controls on grain spatial distribution in igneous rocks will depend on the application of these techniques to well-understood environments.     

Testing optically stimulated luminescence dating on sand-sized quartz of deltaic deposits from the Sperchios delta plain,central Greece

This study reports on the first investigation into the potential of luminescence dating to establish a chronological framework for the depositional sequences of the Sperchios delta plain, central Greece. A series of three borehole cores(20 m deep) and two shallow cores(4 m deep), from across the delta plain, were extracted, and samples were collected for luminescence dating. The luminescence ages of sand-sized quartz grains were obtained from small aliquots of quartz, using the Single-Aliquot Regenerative-dose(SAR) protocol.The equivalent dose determination included a series of tests and the selection of the Minimum Age Model(MAM) as the most appropriate statistical model. This made it possible to confirm the applicability of quartz Optically Stimulated Luminescence(OSL) dating to establish absolute chronology for deltaic sediments from the Sperchios delta plain.Testing age results of the five cores showed that the deltaic sediments were deposited during the Holocene.A relatively rapid deposition is implied for the top ~14 m possibly as a result of the deceleration in the rate of the sea-level rise and the transition to terrestrial conditions, while on the deeper parts, the reduced sedimentation rate may indicate a lagoonal or coastal environment.     

Yucatán karst features and the size of Chicxulub crater

The buried Chicxulub impact structure is marked by a dramatic ring of sinkholes (called cenotes if containing water), and adjacent less prominent partial rings, which have been shown to coincide with maxima in horizontal gravity gradients and a topographic depression. These observations, along with the discreteness and spacing of the features, suggest a formation mechanism involving faulting in the outer slump zone of the crater, which would thus have a diameter of approximately 180 km.
An opposing view, based primarily on the interpretation of gravity data, is that (he crater is much larger than the cenote ring implies. Given the association of the known cenote ring with faults, we here examine northern Yucatan for similar rings in gravity, surface features and elevation, which we might expect to be associated with outer concentric faults in the case of a larger, possibly multiring, structure.
No such outer rings have been found, although definite patterns are seen in the distribution of karst features outside the crater rim. We explain these patterns as resulting mainly from deformation related to the block fault zone that parallels tbe shelf edge of eastern Yucatan.