含硫化物镁铁质-超镁铁质侵入体中橄榄石Mg、Ni含量的制约:原理、模式及Voisey's Bay侵入体样品研究

镁铁质-超镁铁质岩浆结晶分离早期形成镁铁矿物,镁铁矿物中的Ni和Mg是相容元素。随着结晶分离作用的进行,Ni、Mg在硅酸盐岩浆及后形成的硅酸盐物质中的丰度下降。橄榄石中Ni含量及硅酸盐物质MgO/FeO比值都与母岩浆的相关值相关,据此可推断母岩浆的信息,它们之间可由实验测得的系数相联系。当岩浆饱和硫化物时,在结晶分离过程中硫化物珠滴会与镁铁硅酸盐物质一道析出,同时,与硫化物非饱和岩浆相比,过多的Ni会随之析出。这也反映在Ni、Mg含量比无硫化物分离时有更迅速的降低上。Ni、Mg含量变化值可以在VoiseysBay侵入体的模式曲线上反映出,加拿大Labrador的这一侵入体赋存了一个世界级的Ni-Cu-Co硫化物矿床。过去的作法是将侵入体中橄榄石的Ni、Mg含量与Simkin和Smith得出的各种火成岩中橄榄石的Ni、Mg含量相比较以确定Ni亏损,进而假定橄榄石来自硫化物饱和、有经济价值的岩浆。现在的研究显示这种简单的对比会导致错误。将样品数据与模式曲线对比并反映出侵入体矿物结晶堆积特征是重要的方法。使用这一方法,样品数据能很好地被模式曲线拟合。以在VoiseysBay的研究为例,当硫化物液相与硅酸盐矿物被去除后,硫化物非饱和的分离作用期就会显现出来,随后是硅酸盐结晶作用期。     

A Nd- and O-isotope study of the REE-rich peralkaline Strange Lake granite: implications for Mesoproterozoic A-type magmatism in the Core Zone (NE-Canada)

It is well established that A-type granites enriched in high field strength elements, such as Zr, Nb and the REE, form in anorogenic tectonic settings. The sources of these elements and the processes controlling their unusual enrichment, however, are still debated. They are addressed here using neodymium and oxygen isotope analyses of samples from the 1.24 Ga Strange Lake pluton in the Paleoproterozoic Core Zone of Québec-Labrador, an A-type granitic body characterized by hyper-enrichment in the REE, Zr, and Nb. Age-corrected εNd values for bulk rock samples and sodic amphiboles (mainly arfvedsonite) from the pluton range from ?0.6 to ?5.7, and ?0.3 to ?5.3, respectively. The εNd values for the Napeu Kainiut quartz monzonite, which hosts the pluton, range from ?4.8 to ?8.1. The ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios of the suite and the host quartz monzonite range from 0.0967 to 0.1659, large variations that can be explained by in situ fractionation of early LREE-minerals (Strange Lake), and late hydrothermal HREE remobilization. Oxygen isotope analyses of quartz of both Strange Lake and the host yielded δ¹⁸O values between +8.2 and +9.1, which are considerably higher than the mantle value of 5.7 ± 0.2‰. Bulk rock oxygen isotope analyses of biotite-gneisses in the vicinity of the Strange Lake pluton yielded δ¹⁸O values of 6.3, 8.6 and 9.6‰. The negative εNd values and positive δ¹⁸O values of the Strange Lake and Napeu Kainiut samples indicate that both magmas experienced considerable crustal contamination. The extent of this contamination was estimated, assuming that the contaminants were sedimentary-derived rocks from the underlying Archean Mistinibi (para-) gneiss complex, which is characterized by low εNd and high δ¹⁸O values. Mixing of 5–15% of a gneiss, having an εNd value of ?15 and a δ¹⁸O value of +11, with a moderately enriched mantle source (εNd = +0.9, δ¹⁸O = +6.3) would produce values similar to those obtained for the Strange Lake granites. Based on analogies between the Nain Plutonic Suite and the Gardar alkaline igneous province (SW-Greenland), we conclude that the Strange Lake pluton and associated REE-mineralized anorogenic bodies formed from a combination of subduction-induced fertilization of the sublithospheric mantle, crustal extension and in situ magma evolution.     

On the accuracy of the GPS L2 observable for ionospheric monitoring

The introduction of the unencrypted global positioning system (GPS) L2 civil (L2C) signal has the potential to improve measurements made with the L2 frequency, an important observable in GPS-based ionospheric research and monitoring. Recent work has shown significant differences between the legacy L2P(Y) and L2C-derived total electron content rate of change index (ROTI). This difference is observed between L2P(Y) and L2C-derived ROTI with certain receiver models and between zero-baseline receiver pairs. We discuss the likely cause for these differences: L1-aided tracking used to track both the L2P(Y) and L2C signals. We also present L2C data that are confirmed to be from tracking independent of L1. Using the ionospheric-free linear combination, we show that the independently tracked carrier phase dynamics are significantly more accurate than the L1-aided observables. This result is confirmed by comparing the behavior of the L2C and L2P(Y) carrier phase observables upon a sudden antenna rotation.     

Development of groundwater favourability map using GIS-based driven data mining models: an approach for effective groundwater resource management

The development of groundwater favourability map is an effective tool for the sustainability management of groundwater resources in typical agricultural regions, such as southern Perak Province, Malaysia. Assessing the potentiality and pollution vulnerability of groundwater is a fundamental phase of favourability mapping. A geographic information system (GIS)-based Boolean operator of a spatial analyst module was applied to combine a groundwater potentiality map (GPM) model and a groundwater vulnerability to pollution index (GVPI) map, thereby establishing the favourable zones for drinking water exploration in the investigated area. The area GPM model was evaluated by applying a GIS-based Dempster–Shafer–evidential belief function model. In the evaluation, six geoelectrically determined groundwater potential conditioning factors (i.e. overburden resistivity, overburden thickness, aquifer resistivity, aquifer thickness, aquifer transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity) were synthesized by employing the probability-based algorithms of the model. The generated thematic maps of the seven hydrogeological parameters of the DRASTIC model were considered as pollution potential conditioning factors and were analysed with the developed ordered weighted average–DRASTIC index model algorithms to construct the GVPI map. Approximately 88.8 and 85.71% prediction accuracies for the Groundwater Potentiality and GVPI maps were established using the reacting operating characteristic curve method and water quality status–vulnerability zone relationship scheme, respectively. Finally, the area groundwater favourability map (GFM) model was produced by applying a GIS-based Boolean operator on the Groundwater Potentiality and GVPI maps. The GFM model reveals three distinct zones: ‘not suitable’, ‘less suitable’ and ‘very suitable’ zones. The area analysis of the GFM model indicates that more than 50% of the study area is covered by the ‘very suitable’ zones. Results produce a suitability map that can be used by local authorities for the exploitation and management of drinking water in the area. The study findings can also be applied as a tool to help increase public awareness of groundwater issues in developing countries.     

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Towards evaluating cloud response to climate change using clustering technique identification of cloud regimes

Most of the discrepancies in the climate sensitivity of general circulation models (GCMs) are believed to be due to differences in cloud radiative feedback. Analysis of cloud response to climate change in different ‘regimes’ may offer a more detailed understanding of how the cloud response differs between GCMs. In which case, evaluation of simulated cloud regimes against observations in terms of both their cloud properties and frequency of occurrence will assist in assessing confidence in the cloud response to climate change in a particular GCM. In this study, we use a clustering technique on International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data and on ISCCP-like diagnostics from two versions of the Hadley Centre GCM to identify cloud regimes over four different geographical regions. The two versions of the model are evaluated against observational data and their cloud response to climate change compared within the cloud regime framework. It is found that cloud clusters produced by the more recent GCM, HadSM4, compare more favourably with observations than HadSM3. In response to climate change, although the net cloud response over particular regions is often different in the two models, in several instances the same basic processes may be seen to be operating. Overall, both changes in the frequency of occurrence of cloud regimes and changes in the properties (optical depth and cloud top height) of the cloud regimes contribute to the cloud response to climate change.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Current approaches to MRV in South Africa: a scoping study

It is shown that there are MRV-related activities underway in South Africa, particularly focusing on measuring electricity consumption and monitoring GHG emissions. Yet currently many of these activities happen in parallel systems within multi-polar governance structures. A bottom-up perspective of MRV in South Africa, informed by interviews, workshops, desktop research, and stakeholder consultations, is provided and the systems, data, methodologies, and the institutional environment relevant to a South African MRV system are examined. The development of the local monitoring and evaluation system, and its relevance within the international MRV context, is also discussed. Some recommendations are made: most importantly, there is a need for a coherent approach to be developed, one that is coordinated by government and built on existing MRV systems.     

Two-dimensional modelling of some CFC replacement compounds

The Cambridge 2-D Eulerian model has been used to study the potential atmospheric distributions and lifetimes of a number of CFC replacement compounds and their degradation products. The study has focused on HFC 134a and HCFCs 123, 141b and 142b and the major products formed by their atmospheric degradation. The loss of these compounds and their products by hydroxyl radical attack, photolysis and in-cloud hydrolysis have been investigated. The study has shown that HCFCs 141b and 142b have sufficiently long lifetimes to enter the stratosphere in significant quantities, where degradation leads to an increase in the total stratospheric chlorine concentration. The study has also highlighted areas where further experimental work would be valuable, in particular characterisation of the product channels for the degradation reactions and determination of the removal rates of the products in the aqueous phase.