Multivariate Prediction of Total Water Storage Changes Over West Africa from Multi-Satellite Data

West African countries have been exposed to changes in rainfall patterns over the last decades, including a significant negative trend. This causes adverse effects on water resources of the region, for instance, reduced freshwater availability. Assessing and predicting large-scale total water storage (TWS) variations are necessary for West Africa, due to its environmental, social, and economical impacts. Hydrological models, however, may perform poorly over West Africa due to data scarcity. This study describes a new statistical, data-driven approach for predicting West African TWS changes from (past) gravity data obtained from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE), and (concurrent) rainfall data from the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) and sea surface temperature (SST) data over the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The proposed method, therefore, capitalizes on the availability of remotely sensed observations for predicting monthly TWS, a quantity which is hard to observe in the field but important for measuring regional energy balance, as well as for agricultural, and water resource management. Major teleconnections within these data sets were identified using independent component analysis and linked via low-degree autoregressive models to build a predictive framework. After a learning phase of 72 months, our approach predicted TWS from rainfall and SST data alone that fitted to the observed GRACE-TWS better than that from a global hydrological model. Our results indicated a fit of 79 % and 67 % for the first-year prediction of the two dominant annual and inter-annual modes of TWS variations. This fit reduces to 62 % and 57 % for the second year of projection. The proposed approach, therefore, represents strong potential to predict the TWS over West Africa up to 2 years. It also has the potential to bridge the present GRACE data gaps of 1 month about each 162 days as well as a—hopefully—limited gap between GRACE and the GRACE follow-on mission over West Africa. The method presented could also be used to generate a near-real-time GRACE forecast over the regions that exhibit strong teleconnections.     

Characterization of contact properties in biocemented sand using 3D X-ray micro-tomography

The mechanical efficiency of the biocementation process is directly related to the microstructural properties of the biocemented sand, such as the volume fraction of calcite, its distribution within the pore space (localized at the contact between grains, over the grain surfaces) and the contact properties: coordination number, contact surface area, contacts orientation and types of contact. In the present work, all these micromechanical properties are computed, for the first time, from 3D images obtained by X-ray tomography of intact biocemented sand samples. The evolution of all these properties with respect to the volume fraction of calcite is analyzed and compared between each other (from untreated sand to highly cemented sand). Whatever the volume fraction of calcite, it is shown that the precipitation of the calcite is localized at the contacts between grains. These results are confirmed by comparing our numerical results with analytical estimates assuming that the granular medium is made of periodic simple cubic arrangements of grains and by considering two extreme cases of precipitation: (1) The calcite is localized at the contact, and (2) the grains are covered by a uniform layer of calcite. In overall, the obtained results show that a small percentage of calcite is sufficient to get a large amount of cohesive contacts.

     

Characterization of microstructural and physical properties changes in biocemented sand using 3D X-ray microtomography

An experimental study has been performed to investigate the effect of the biocalcification process on the microstructural and the physical properties of biocemented Fontainebleau sand samples. The microstructural properties (porosity, volume fraction of calcite, total specific surface area, specific surface area of calcite, etc.) and the physical properties (permeability, effective diffusion) of the biocemented samples were computed for the first time from 3D images with a high-resolution images obtained by X-ray synchrotron microtomography. The evolution of all these properties with respect to the volume fraction of calcite is analysed and compared with success to experimental data, when it is possible. In general, our results point out that all the properties are strongly affected by the biocalcification process. Finally, all these numerical results from 3D images and experimental data were compared to numerical values or analytical estimates computed on idealized microstructures constituted of periodic overlapping and random non-overlapping arrangements of coated spheres. These comparisons show that these simple microstructures are sufficient to capture and to predict the main evolution of both microstructural and physical properties of biocemented sands for the whole range of volume fraction of calcite investigated.     

Temporal correlations and clustering of landslides

This paper examines temporal correlations and temporal clustering of a proxy historical landslide time series, 2255 reported landslides 1951–2002, for an area in the Emilia‐Romagna Region, Italy. Landslide intensity is measured by the number of reported landslides in a day (D_L) and in an ‘event’ (S_event) of consecutive days with landsliding. The non‐zero values in both time series D_L and S_event are unequally spaced in time, and have heavy‐tailed frequency‐size distributions. To examine temporal correlations, we use power‐spectral analysis (Lomb periodogram) and surrogate data analysis, confronting our original D_L and S_event time series with 1000 shuffled (uncorrelated) versions. We conclude that the landslide intensity series D_L has strong temporal correlations and S_event has likely temporal correlations. To examine temporal clustering in D_L and S_event, we consider extremes over different landslide intensity thresholds. We first examine the statistical distribution of interextreme occurrence times, τ, and find Weibull distributions with parameter γ << 1·0 [D_L] and γ < 1·0 [S_event]; thus D_L and S_event each have temporal correlations, but S_event to a lesser degree. We next examine correlations between successive interextreme occurrence times, τ. Using autocorrelation analysis applied to τ, combined with surrogate data analysis, we find for D_L linear correlations in τ, but for S_event inconclusive results. However, using Kendall's rank correlation analysis we find for both D_L and S_event the series of τ are strongly correlated. Finally, we apply Fano Factor analysis, finding for both D_L and S_event the timings of extremes over a given threshold exhibit a fractal structure and are clustered in time. In this paper, we provide a framework for examining time series where the non‐zero values are strongly unequally spaced and heavy‐tailed, particularly important in the Earth Sciences due to their common occurrence, and find that landslide intensity time series exhibit temporal correlations and clustering. Many landslide models currently are designed under the assumption that landslides are uncorrelated in time, which we show is false. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantitative antimony speciation in shooting-range soils by EXAFS spectroscopy

The Sb speciation in soil samples from Swiss shooting ranges was determined using Sb K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) and advanced statistical data analysis methods (iterative transformation factor analysis, ITFA). The XAS analysis was supported by a spectral data set of 13 Sb minerals and 4 sorption complexes. In spite of a high variability in geology, soil pH (3.1-7.5), Sb concentrations (1000-17,000 mg/kg) and shooting-range history, only two Sb species were identified. In the first species, Sb is surrounded solely by other Sb atoms at radial distances of 2.90, 3.35, 4.30 and 4.51 Å, indicative of metallic Sb(0). While part of this Sb(0) may be hosted by unweathered bullet fragments consisting of PbSb alloy, Pb L_III-edge XAS of the soil with the highest fraction (0.75) of Sb(0) showed no metallic Pb, but only Pb²⁺ bound to soil organic matter. This suggests a preferential oxidation of Pb in the alloy, driven by the higher standard reduction potential of Sb. In the second species, Sb is coordinated to 6 O-atoms at a distance of 1.98 Å, indicative of Sb(V). This oxidation state is further supported by an edge energy of 30,496-30,497 eV for the soil samples with <10% Sb(0). Iron atoms at radial distances of 3.10 and 3.56 Å from Sb atoms are in line with edge-sharing and bidentate corner-sharing linkages between Sb(O,OH)₆ and Fe(O,OH)₆ octahedra. While similar structural units exist in tripuhyite, the absence of Sb neighbors contradicts formation of this Fe antimonate. Hence the second species most likely consists of inner-sphere sorption complexes on Fe oxides, with edge and corner-sharing configuration occurring simultaneously. This pentavalent Sb species was present in all samples, suggesting that it is the prevailing species after weathering of metallic Sb(0) in oxic soils. No indication of Sb(III) was found.     

影响湖相沉积岩中有机碳分布的主要因素--以三水盆地为例

湖相沉积中的有机质含量随有机质堆积条件变化而发生波动。本以三水盆地下第三系布心组二段地层粉列，对其作高分辨率岩芯取样并结合地球化学方法，分析生物学因素对有机碳分布的影响。在较干燥的气候条件下，水生浮游生物是有机质的主要来源，由于此时湖泊与海洋沟通，出现半咸水环境，硫酸盐还原作用显，不利于有机质保存。所取岩芯段的中上部即是这种情况，以低TOC和高SRI值为特征。而当气候湿润时，植物繁荣，湖水淡化，陆源有机质丰富。缺氧条件下的有机质降解主要是效率极低的发酵作用。有利于有机质保存。这种情形出现于岩芯段的下部，以较高TOC和较低SRI值为特征。     

Giving Credit where Credit is Due. A Practical Method to Distinguish between Human and Natural Factors in Carbon Accounting

Net carbon emissions from the biosphere differ from fossil-fuel based emissions in that: (i) a large proportion of biospheric carbon exchange is not under direct human control; (ii) land-use decisions often have only a small short-term effect on net emissions, but a large long-term effect; and (iii) biospheric carbon exchange is potentially reversible. Because of these differences, carbon accounting approaches also need to be different for fossil-fuel and biosphere-based emissions. Recognising that, the international negotiators at COP 7 adopted a range of guiding principles for accounting for biospheric carbon exchange, including: that accounting excludes removals resulting from (a) elevated carbon dioxide concentrations above pre-industrial level; (b) indirect nitrogen deposition; and (c) the dynamic effects of age structure resulting from activities and practices before the reference year. In this paper, we highlight some of the challenges in biospheric carbon accounting for Canada, the U.S.A, New Zealand and Australia, four nations for which biospheric net carbon exchange is large relative to fossil-fuel based emissions. We discuss an accounting scheme that is based on assessing changes in average carbon stocks due to changes in land use. That scheme is tailored to the special needs of biospheric carbon management and is consistent with the accounting principles adopted at COP 7. The paper shows how the accounting scheme would resolve many of the biospheric carbon accounting anomalies identified for the four nations we studied.