Are natural hazards temporally random?

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.     

Sublethal effects of oiled sediment on the sand worm, Nereis (neanthes) virens: Induced changes in burrowing and emergence

The burrowing and emergence behavior of sand worms, Nereis (Neanthes) virens Sars, in sediment contaminated with sublethal concentrations of Prudhoe Bay crude oil ranging from 74 to 5222 ppm, was studied in the laboratory. Initial burrowing in oiled sediment did not differ from that observed in unoiled sediment. Emergence of exposed worms was related to the oil concentration and the extent of weathering of oiled sediment. Sand worms buried in unoiled sediment did not emerge. Worms dug from oiled sediment after 12 hours' exposure and placed on unoiled sediment were impaired, resulting in a significant increase in time to burrow. However, after 12h, they recovered and burrowed at normal rates. Worms held in oiled sediment for 96 h also recovered. Possible causes for recovery are discussed. Results suggest that oil-induced aberrations may increase vulnerability to predation.     

Enstatite meteorite clasts in Almahata Sitta and other polymict ureilites: Implications for the formation of asteroid 2008 TC3 and the history of enstatite meteorite parent asteroids

The anomalous polymict ureilite Almahata Sitta (AhS) fell in 2008 when asteroid 2008 TC₃ disintegrated over Sudan and formed a strewn field of disaggregated clasts of various ureilitic and chondritic types. We studied the petrology and oxygen isotope compositions of enstatite meteorite samples from the University of Khartoum (UoK) collection of AhS. In addition, we describe the first bona fide (3.5 mm-sized) clast of an enstatite chondrite (EC) in a typical polymict ureilite, Northwest Africa (NWA) 10657. We evaluate whether 2008 TC₃ and typical polymict ureilites have a common origin, and examine implications for the history of enstatite meteorite asteroids in the solar system. Based on mineralogy, mineral compositions, and textures, the seven AhS EC clasts studied comprise one EH_a3 (S151), one EL_b3 (AhS 1002), two EH_b4-5 (AhS 2012, AhS 26), two EH_b5-6 or possibly impact melt rocks (AhS 609, AhS 41), and one EL_b6-7 (AhS 17), while the EC clast in NWA 10657 is EH_a3. Oxygen isotope compositions analyzed for five of these are similar to those of EC from non-UoK collections of AhS, and within the range of individual EC meteorites. There are no correlations of oxygen isotope composition with chemical group or subgroup. The EC clasts from the UoK collection show the same large range of types as those from non-UoK collections of AhS. The enstatite achondrite, AhS 60, is a unique type (not known as an individual meteorite) that has also been found among non-UoK AhS samples. EC are the most abundant non-ureilitic clasts in AhS but previously were thought to be absent in typical polymict ureilites, necessitating a distinct origin for AhS. The discovery of an EC in NWA 10657 changes this. We argue that the types of materials in AhS and typical polymict ureilites are essentially similar, indicating a common origin. We elaborate on a model in which AhS and typical polymict ureilites formed in the same regolith on a ureilitic daughter body. Most non-ureilitic clasts are remnants of impactors implanted at ~50–60 Myr after CAI. Differences in abundances can be explained by the stochastic nature of impactor addition. There is no significant difference between the chemical/petrologic types of EC in polymict ureilites and individual EC meteorites. This implies that fragments of the same populations of EC parent bodies were available as impactors at ~50–60 Myr after CAI and recently. This can be explained if materials excavated from various depths on EC bodies at ~50–60 Myr after CAI were reassembled into mixed layers, leaving relatively large bodies intact to survive 4 billion years. Polymict ureilites record a critical timestep in the collisional and dynamical evolution of the solar system, showing that asteroids that may have accreted at distant locations had migrated to within proximity of one another by 50–60 Myr after CAI, and providing constraints on the dynamical processes that could have caused such migrations.     

The Dynamics of Covering Behaviour in Dominant Echinoid Populations from American and European West Coasts

Abstract.  The so-called 'covering behaviour' of echinoids is known to vary with habitat according to the types of covering items available, but the full extent of the role played by habitat characteristics in this behaviour is not known. Moreover, whether or not different species inhabiting similar environmental conditions and habitats also show similar patterns of this particular behaviour has yet to be investigated. In this study, two prominent west coast echinoid species, Paracentrotus lividus and Strongylocentrotus purpuratus , were examined with respect to covering behaviour and spatial organisation. Populations of both species are found in exposed intertidal zones, occupying boreholes within tidepools. Important similarities were found in the spatial organisation of both species' populations, with lowest densities in upper shore pools. However, the size distributions of the two populations differed significantly; P. lividus within upper shore pools were significantly larger than those in mid or lower shore pools, whereas S. purpuratus on the lower shore were significantly larger than those at other shore heights. We found significant between-species variability in covering item use, although the number of covering items available at both sites was not significantly different. For example, greater densities of covering items were used by P. lividus than by S. purpuratus . We also found that the percent of echinoid surface area covered varied significantly in space for both species. These data emphasise the complex and multifaceted nature of covering behaviour, but most importantly, they also strongly suggest that habitat characteristics can only partly explain the extent of this behavioural variability amongst echinoid species.     

Cross-shelf distribution of copepods and the role of event-scale winds in a northern California upwelling zone

Cross-shelf distribution and abundance of copepod nauplii and copepodids were measured during three summer upwelling seasons (2000–2002) in a coastal upwelling zone off northern California. These 3 years varied considerably in the intensity of winds, abundance of chlorophyll, and water temperature. The cruises in 2000 were characterized by relaxation conditions, with generally high levels of chlorophyll and high water temperature. The cruises in 2001 and 2002 were dominated by strong and persistent upwelling events, leading to lower chlorophyll and water temperatures. The copepod assemblage was dominated by Oithona spp., Acartia spp. and Pseudocalanus spp., with Metridia pacifica (lucens), Microsetella rosea, Oncaea spp. and Tortanus discaudatus also common during all 3 years. The cross-shelf distribution of copepods was generally shifted offshore during upwelling and onshore during relaxation events, although some variability between species occurred. Abundance of all life stages generally exhibited a negative correlation with cross-shelf transport averaged over at least 1–4 days and lagged by 0–3 days, indicating lower abundances during and immediately after active upwelling. However, copepod nauplii seemed to respond positively to wind events lasting 1–5 days followed by a period of relaxation lasting 6 or 7 days. These rapid rates of change in abundance are probably too great to be due to in situ growth and reproduction alone; physical processes must also play a role. These results suggest a highly dynamic relationship between copepods and upwelling events off northern California, with species-specific responses to upwelling to be expected.     

Refusing resilience: the racialization of risk and resilience

In this short essay debating the politics of resilience, I draw from the circulation of resilience discourses following the Milwaukee Uprising of 2016 to argue that critiques of resilience planning in such cities of the global west must be situated within the context of racial capitalism. I further contend that resilience-informed urban projects are often underpinned by an uncritical embrace of notions of public safety and crime that bolster racialized logics of securitization and carcerality. I conclude by suggesting that rather than seeking to recuperate resilience, we instead should refuse it, embracing planning approaches that emphasize structural change rather than adaption.     

Estimating Long-Term Solar Irradiance Variability: A New Approach

The detection of solar irradiance variations (both bolometric and at various wavelengths) by satellite-based experiments during the last one-and-a-half decades stimulated modeling efforts to help identify their causes and to provide estimates of irradiance data for those time intervals when no satellite observations exist. In this paper we present estimates of the long-term irradiance changes developed with Fourier and wavelet transforms. The month-to-month irradiance variations, after removing the solar cycle related long-term changes, are studied with the cross-correlation technique. Results of the analysis reveal a significant phase shift at 3 months between the full-disk magnetic field strength and total solar and UV irradiance, with irradiance leading the magnetic field variability. In addition to this time delay between the changes in solar irradiance and the magnetic field, a 10-month phase shift has been found between the UV flux at 280 nm and total solar irradiance corrected for sunspot darkening. The existence of these phase shifts suggests the possibility of a coupling between the physical processes taking place below, in, and above the photosphere.     

Spatial analysis of instream nitrogen loads and factors controlling nitrogen delivery to streams in the southeastern United States using spatially referenced regression on watershed attributes (SPARROW) and regional classification frameworks

Understanding how nitrogen transport across the landscape varies with landscape characteristics is important for developing sound nitrogen management policies. We used a spatially referenced regression analysis (SPARROW) to examine landscape characteristics influencing delivery of nitrogen from sources in a watershed to stream channels. Modelled landscape delivery ratio varies widely (by a factor of 4) among watersheds in the southeastern United States—higher in the western part (Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi) than in the eastern part, and the average value for the region is lower compared to other parts of the nation. When we model landscape delivery ratio as a continuous function of local‐scale landscape characteristics, we estimate a spatial pattern that varies as a function of soil and climate characteristics but exhibits spatial structure in residuals (observed load minus predicted load). The spatial pattern of modelled landscape delivery ratio and the spatial pattern of residuals coincide spatially with Level III ecoregions and also with hydrologic landscape regions. Subsequent incorporation into the model of these frameworks as regional scale variables improves estimation of landscape delivery ratio, evidenced by reduced spatial bias in residuals, and suggests that cross‐scale processes affect nitrogen attenuation on the landscape. The model‐fitted coefficient values are logically consistent with the hypothesis that broad‐scale classifications of hydrologic response help to explain differential rates of nitrogen attenuation, controlling for local‐scale landscape characteristics. Negative model coefficients for hydrologic landscape regions where the primary flow path is shallow ground water suggest that a lower fraction of nitrogen mass will be delivered to streams; this relation is reversed for regions where the primary flow path is overland flow. Published in 2009 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.