Adaptation in the context of technology development and transfer

Starting from a summary of key developments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) related to adaptation and technologies, the commentary provides an initial review of the available literature relevant to adaptation in the context of technology development and transfer. It summarizes what technologies for adaptation are, how they relate to development, and what their role is in adaptation. It subsequently highlights a number of policy and research issues that could be important to inform future policy. The commentary has two key messages. First, it argues that informed policy decisions on technology development and transfer to enhance adaptation require systematic assessments of the findings in the theoretical and empirical literature. Second, in light of the potential for overlap between processes for adaptation and processes for technologies for adaptation, there is a need for coordination and exchange of information between the work under the Cancún Adaptation Framework and under the Technology Mechanism of the UNFCCC.     

Unexpected records of ‘deep‐sea’ carnivorous sponges Asbestopluma hypogea in the shallow NE Atlantic shed light on new conservation issues

Marine cave communities have been a continued source of ecological surprises, among other things because of their close ecological and evolutionary ties with the deep sea. The discovery of cladorhizid sponges, the deepest occurring poriferan family, in shallow Mediterranean caves in the 1990s was one such surprise, leading to the generally accepted hypothesis that the whole family was carnivorous, an unprecedented feeding mode for sponges. The recent observation of the cave species Asbestopluma hypogea in the Mediterranean bathyal, confirmed the view that some shallow caves can occasionally shelter otherwise deep‐dwelling species. Here we present new distribution data of A. hypogea, from deep Mediterranean locations, and for the first time from Atlantic locations. Among the new Atlantic records, the most surprising ones are located in three different geographic areas (Ria de Arousa, Groix Island and Cherbourg) of the NW European coasts, from the Iberian Peninsula to the English Channel, where A. hypogea reaches SCUBA depths (5–50 m), while not sheltered in marine caves. The carnivorous sponge however reaches its shallowest occurrence (5 m), in a small cave at Groix Island. The ecological significance of these discoveries, particularly the very patchy distribution and peculiar dynamics, are noteworthy, and the shallow occurrence of A. hypogea, together with other deep‐water or uncommon species, constitute unique assemblages that must be considered in conservation plans.     

Effective stability around the Cassini state in the spin-orbit problem

We investigate the long-time stability in the neighborhood of the Cassini state in the conservative spin-orbit problem. Starting with an expansion of the Hamiltonian in the canonical Andoyer-Delaunay variables, we construct a high-order Birkhoff normal form and give an estimate of the effective stability time in the Nekhoroshev sense. By extensively using algebraic manipulations on a computer, we explicitly apply our method to the rotation of Titan. We obtain physical bounds of Titan’s latitudinal and longitudinal librations, finding a stability time greatly exceeding the estimated age of the Universe. In addition, we study the dependence of the effective stability time on three relevant physical parameters: the orbital inclination, $i$ , the mean precession of the ascending node of Titan orbit, $\dot{\varOmega }$ , and the polar moment of inertia, $C$ .     

Correlates of vulnerability to climate-induced distribution changes in European avifauna: habitat, migration and endemism

Accelerated climatic change will alter species’ distributions substantially by the end of the 21st Century and studies modeling distribution change using Climatic Envelope Modeling (CEM) are increasingly crucial for understanding long-term biotic implications of climate change. However, most CEM studies generate either all-species means, which are of limited practical use, or copious species-specific predictions that make it hard to draw general conclusions about those groups most vulnerable. Intermediate analyses that are half way between these two extremes are necessary to establish the relative vulnerability of species to change based on factors that can be related directly to policy and practice, including habitat associations and ecological traits such as endemism and migration status. Here we use species-specific CEM data to analyse changes in geographical distribution, range size, and overlap between current and potential ranges, for all 431 bird species breeding regularly in Europe. Future range sizes are predicted to be 80 % of current range sizes, with an average overlap of 39 %. However, we show that change varies significantly according to habitat, current range size, and endemism status, with no differences according to migration status. Coastal, wetland and upland birds will be significantly worse off under CEM scenarios than birds associated with woodland, farmland and heathland, while urban birds and those using multiple habitats doing best. Birds with small ranges show more severe, and spatially more complex, distribution shifts. The identification of species groups most vulnerable to climate change means that CEM predictions can now be used to inform policy and management, especially where initiatives are based on species grouped according to such variables or where habitat-specific policies are in place.     

Movement Patterns and Distributional Shifts of Dungeness Crab (Metacarcinus magister) and English Sole (Parophrys vetulus) During Seasonal Hypoxia

Hypoxia (dissolved oxygen?<?2 mg L^–1) has emerged as a worldwide threat to coastal and estuarine ecosystems. Beyond direct mortality, secondary ecological impacts caused by hypoxia-driven distributional shifts may be equally important. From July–November 2009 and June–September 2010, we quantified the movement patterns of Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) and English sole (Parophrys vetulus) in Hood Canal, Washington USA, a seasonally hypoxic estuary. Although highly mobile (mean cumulative distance?±?SD?=?11.0?±?25.6 km, N?=?60), there was little evidence of either species exhibiting large-scale directional movement out of the hypoxic region. However, Dungeness crab showed significant shifts towards shallower waters and elevation in activity in the hypoxic region, potentially increasing their vulnerability to crabbing and other indirect ecological consequences. Our findings suggest hypoxia could have a more localized impact on the mobile fauna in Hood Canal. However, more detailed information concerning the local-scale oxygen dynamics and responses of these species, such as English sole vertical movement, is essential for grasping the population and community level effects of hypoxia.     

Exchange of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Between a Shallow Lagoon and Coastal Waters

West Falmouth Harbor, a shallow lagoon on Cape Cod, has experienced a threefold increase in nitrogen load since the mid- to late 1990s due to input from a groundwater plume contaminated by a municipal wastewater treatment plant. We measured the exchange of nitrogen and phosphorus between the harbor and the coastal waters of Buzzards Bay over several years when the harbor was experiencing this elevated nitrogen load. During summer months, the harbor not only retained the entire watershed nitrogen load but also had a net import of nitrogen from Buzzards Bay. During the spring and fall, the harbor had a net export of nitrogen to Buzzards Bay. We did not measure the export in winter, but assuming the winter net export was less than 112 % of the load, the harbor exported less than half of the watershed nitrogen load on an annual basis. For phosphorus, the harbor had a net import from coastal waters in the spring and summer months and a net export in the fall. Despite the large increase in nitrogen load to the harbor, the summertime import of phosphorus from Buzzards Bay was sufficient to maintain nitrogen limitation of primary productivity during the summer. Our findings illustrate that shallow systems dominated by benthic producers have the potential to retain large terrestrial nitrogen loads when there is sufficient supply of phosphorus from exchange with coastal waters.     

PAH transport by sinking particles in the open Mediterranean Sea: a 1 year sediment trap study

One year time series of sinking particles were collected at two depths in the open Mediterranean Sea and analysed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). Average total PAH concentrations were 593+/-284 ng g(-1) at 250 m and 551 +/- 198 ng g(-1) at 2850 m. Total PAH fluxes averaged 73 +/- 58 ng m(-2) d(-1) at 250 m and 53 +/- 39 ng m(-2) d(-1) at 2850 m. Contamination levels and, thus, exposure of marine organisms to PAH are comparable in surface and deep waters. Deep waters appear as a significant, yet overlooked, PAH sink. PAH temporal patterns show noticeable seasonality. This is partly due to varying levels of specific components such as the winter increase of pyrolytic PAH. Downward transport processes and the nature of sinking particles also impact on PAH fluxes, as inferred during periods of increasing productivity. Different phase-associations and interactions with particulate organic carbon for low-MW fossil PAH and high-MW pyrolytic PAH influence their downward transport efficiency.     

Internal and forced variability along a section between Greenland and Portugal in the CLIPPER Atlantic model

Numerical models are used to estimate the meridional overturning and transports along the paths of two hydrographic cruises, carried out in 1997 and 2002 from Greenland to Portugal. We have examined the influence of the different paths of the two cruises and found that it could explain 0.4 to 2 Sv of difference in overturning (the precise value is model-dependent). Models show a decrease in the overturning circulation between 1997 and 2002, with different amplitudes. The CLIPPER ATL6 model reproduces well the observed weakening of the overturning in density coordinates between the cruises; in the model, the change is due to the combination of interannual and high-frequency forcing and internal variability associated with eddies and meanders. Examination of the -coordinate overturning reveals model–data discrepancies: the vertical structure in the models does not change as much as the observed one. The East Greenland current variability is mainly wind-forced in the ATL6 model, while fluctuations due to eddies and instabilities explain a large part of the North Atlantic Current variability. The time-residual transport of dense water and heat due to eddy correlations between currents and properties is small across this section, which is normal to the direction of the main current.     

A transition from CMIP3 to CMIP5 for climate information providers: the case of surface temperature over eastern North America

The release of new data constituting the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5) database is an important event in both climate science and climate services issues. Although users’ eagerness for a fast transition from CMIP3 to CMIP5 is expected, this change implies some challenges for climate information providers. The main reason is that the two sets of experiments were performed in different ways regarding radiative forcing and hence continuity between both datasets is partially lost. The objective of this research is to evaluate a metric that is independent of the amount and the evolution of radiative forcing, hence facilitating comparison between the two sets for surface temperature over eastern North America. The link between CMIP3 and CMIP5 data sets is explored spatially and locally (using the ratio of local to global temperatures) through the use of regional warming patterns, a relationship between the grid-box and the global mean temperature change for a certain time frame. Here, we show that local to global ratios are effective tools in making climate change information between the two sets comparable. As a response to the global mean temperature change, both CMIP experiments show very similar warming patterns, trends, and climate change uncertainty for both winter and summer. Sensitivity of the models to radiative forcing is not assessed. Real inter-model differences remain the largest source of uncertainty when calculating warming patterns as well as spatially-based patterns for the pattern scaling approach. This relationship between the datasets, which may escape users when they are provided with a single radiative forcing pathway, needs to be stressed by climate information providers.