The Livelihood Vulnerability Index: A pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change—A case study in Mozambique

We developed the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to estimate climate change vulnerability in the Mabote and Moma Districts of Mozambique. We surveyed 200 households in each district to collect data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability. Data were aggregated using a composite index and differential vulnerabilities were compared. Results suggest that Moma may be more vulnerable in terms of water resources while Mabote may be more vulnerable in terms of socio-demographic structure. This pragmatic approach may be used to monitor vulnerability, program resources for assistance, and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in data-scarce regions by introducing scenarios into the LVI model for baseline comparison.     

New snow metrics for a warming world

Snow is Earth's most climatically sensitive land cover type. Traditional snow metrics may not be able to adequately capture the changing nature of snow cover. For example, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has been an effective index for streamflow forecasting, but it cannot express the effects of midwinter melt events, now expected in warming snow climates, nor can we assume that station-based measurements will be representative of snow conditions in future decades. Remote sensing and climate model data provide capacity for a suite of multi-use snow metrics from local to global scales. Such indicators need to be simple enough to “tell the story” of snowpack changes over space and time, but not overly simplistic or overly complicated in their interpretation. We describe a suite of spatially explicit, multi-temporal snow metrics based on global satellite data from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and downscaled climate model output for the U.S. We describe and provide examples for Snow Cover Frequency (SCF), Snow Disappearance Date (SDD), At-Risk Snow (ARS), and Frequency of a Warm Winter (FWW). Using these retrospective and prospective snow metrics, we assess the current and future snow-related conditions in three hydroclimatically different U.S. watersheds: the Truckee, Colorado Headwaters, and Upper Connecticut. In the two western U.S. watersheds, SCF and SDD show greater sensitivity to annual differences in snow cover compared with data from the ground-based Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) network. The eastern U.S. watershed does not have a ground-based network of data, so these MODIS-derived metrics provide uniquely valuable snow information. The ARS and FWW metrics show that the Truckee Watershed is highly vulnerable to conversion from snowfall to rainfall (ARS) and midwinter melt events (FWW) throughout the seasonal snow zone. In comparison, the Colorado Headwaters and Upper Connecticut Watersheds are colder and much less vulnerable through mid- and late-century.     

Northern boundary current variability and mesoscale dynamics: a long-term HF RADAR monitoring in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Ocean Dynamics - Coastal waters are globally challenging areas to monitor not only because of the high resolution needed to resolve the scales at stake but also because most satellites are not yet...     

Dynamics and transport from the boundary Northern Current toward the Toulon Bay: multi-platform observations and downscaling modelling approaches

Ocean Dynamics - Coastal regions are vulnerable areas with often high population density, as well as tourism and maritime activities that may have negative impact on the environment. From a...     

Planetary perturbations on Mercury’s libration in longitude

Two space missions dedicated to Mercury (MESSENGER and BepiColombo) aim at understanding its rotation and confirming the existence of a liquid core. This double challenge requires much more accurate models for the spin-orbit resonant rotation of Mercury. The purpose of this paper is to introduce planetary perturbations on Mercury’s rotation using an analytical method and to analyse the influence of the perturbations on the libration in longitude. Applying a perturbation theory based on the Lie triangle, we were able to re-introduce short periodic terms into the averaged Hamiltonian and to compute the evolution of the rotational variables. The perturbations on Mercury’s forced libration in longitude mainly come from the orbital motion of Mercury (with an amplitude around 41 arcsec that depends on the momenta of inertia). It is completed by various effects from Jupiter (11.86 and 5.93 year-periods), Venus (with a 5.66 year-period), Saturn (14.73 year-period), and the Earth (6.58 year-period). The amplitudes of the oscillations due to Jupiter and Venus are approximately 33% and 10% of those from the orbital motion of Mercury and the amplitudes of the oscillations due to Saturn and the Earth are approximately 3% and 2%. We compare the analytical results with the solution obtained from the spin-orbit numerical model SONYR.     

Local meteoric water lines describe extratropical precipitation

Stable water isotopes δ¹⁸O and δ²H are used to investigate precipitation trends and storm dynamics to advance knowledge of precipitation patterns in a warming world. Herein, δ¹⁸O and δ²H were used to determine the relationship between extratropical cyclonic precipitation and local meteoric water lines (LMWLs) in the eastern Ohio Valley and the eastern United States. Precipitation volume weighted and unweighted central Ohio LMWLs, created with samples collected during 2012–2018, showed that temperature had the greatest effect on precipitation isotopic composition. HYSPLIT back trajectory modelling showed that precipitation was primarily derived from a mid-continental moisture source. Remnants of major hurricanes were collected as extratropical precipitation during the 2012–2018 sampling period in central Ohio. Extratropical precipitation samples were not significantly different from the samples that created the central Ohio LMWL. Six additional LMWLs were derived from United States Geological Survey (USGS) Atmospheric Integrated Research Monitoring Network (AIRMoN) samples collected in Pennsylvania, Delaware, Tennessee, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Oxford, Ohio. Meteoric water lines describing published samples from Superstorm Sandy, plotted with these AIRMoN LMWLs, showed isotopic composition of Superstorm Sandy precipitation was commonly more depleted than the average isotopic composition at the mid-latitude locations. Meteoric water lines describing the Superstorm Sandy precipitation were not significantly different in slope from LMWLs generated within 300 km of the USGS AIRMoN site. This finding, which was observed across the eastern Ohio Valley and eastern United States, demonstrated a consistent precipitation δ²H–δ¹⁸O relationship for extratropical cyclonic and non-cyclonic events. This work also facilitates the analysis of storm development based on the relationship between extratropical event signature and the LMWL. Analysis of extratropical precipitation in relation to LMWLs along storm tracks allows for stronger development of precipitation models and understanding of which climatic and atmospheric factors determine the isotopic composition of precipitation.     

Stormwater control impacts on runoff volume and peak flow: A meta-analysis of watershed modelling studies

Decades of research has concluded that the percent of impervious surface cover in a watershed is strongly linked to negative impacts on urban stream health. Recently, there has been a push by municipalities to offset these effects by installing structural stormwater control measures (SCMs), which are landscape features designed to retain and reduce runoff to mitigate the effects of urbanisation on event hydrology. The goal of this study is to build generalisable relationships between the level of SCM implementation in urban watersheds and resulting changes to hydrology. A literature review of 185 peer-reviewed studies of watershed-scale SCM implementation across the globe was used to identify 52 modelling studies suitable for a meta-analysis to build statistical relationships between SCM implementation and hydrologic change. Hydrologic change is quantified as the percent reduction in storm event runoff volume and peak flow between a watershed with SCMs relative to a (near) identical control watershed without SCMs. Results show that for each additional 1% of SCM-mitigated impervious area in a watershed, there is an additional 0.43% reduction in runoff and a 0.60% reduction in peak flow. Values of SCM implementation required to produce a change in water quantity metrics were identified at varying levels of probability. For example, there is a 90% probability (high confidence) of at least a 1% reduction in peak flow with mitigation of 33% of impervious surfaces. However, as the reduction target increases or mitigated impervious surface decreases, the probability of reaching the reduction target also decreases. These relationships can be used by managers to plan SCM implementation at the watershed scale.     

Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model‐based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River,Germany

Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV‐light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long‐term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Refusing resilience: the racialization of risk and resilience

In this short essay debating the politics of resilience, I draw from the circulation of resilience discourses following the Milwaukee Uprising of 2016 to argue that critiques of resilience planning in such cities of the global west must be situated within the context of racial capitalism. I further contend that resilience-informed urban projects are often underpinned by an uncritical embrace of notions of public safety and crime that bolster racialized logics of securitization and carcerality. I conclude by suggesting that rather than seeking to recuperate resilience, we instead should refuse it, embracing planning approaches that emphasize structural change rather than adaption.