The Present, Past, and Future Contributions to Global Warming of CO2 Emissions from Fuels

The objective of this paper is to emphasize theresponsibility of developed countries to implement the Climate Convention, as well as the role ofdeveloping countries in CO₂ emissions controlwhile sustaining their rights to increase energyconsumption per capita during the development process. Itis shown that the growth in CO₂$ emissions fromfossil fuel consumption in North America, excludingMexico, from 1990 to 1996 was 3.7 times higherthan that of Latin America in absolute terms. Thecumulative contribution to global warming, expressedas the mass of the gas multiplied by time (GtCy), can becalculated as the integration of the atmosphericconcentration of the emitted gas along time, witha weight function in the integrand to simulate theclimate response. To simulate climate response,we used the superposition of exponential decay functions with different decay constants. Thehistorical contributions of the OECD countries,the Eastern European countries and theex-Soviet Union, and from all developingcountries are considered. The future contributionsare computed in three scenarios. All of them showthat emissions from Non-Annex I countrieswill become higher than those of Annex I countriessoon after 2010, while the curves of atmosphericconcentration will cross one another later, not muchbefore 2050, and the respective contributions toglobal temperature increase will cross about 2090.     

Storm solute behaviour in a montane Mediterranean forested catchment

The results of an extensive study of streamwater chemistry during stormflow events, for a montane Mediterranean area, are presented. Four groups of variables are identified as having contrasting behaviour: alkalinity and pH; nitrate and potassium; sulphate and chloride; sodium, calcium and magnesium. The results show a complex pattern of response to flow that can be broadly linked to: (1) antecedent hydrological conditions; (2) rainfall intensity; (3) supplies of water from chemically distinct areas within the catchment. However, comparisons between this study and a parallel one which examined the composition of waters within the catchment, show that it is presently impossible to quantify the relative supplies from each part of the catchment. The findings are reviewed in relation to analogous studies within a European setting and in relation to modelling initiatives.     

Atmospheric electricity measurements over the Indian Ocean

Summary Results of measurements of the atmospheric electrical conductivity and potential gradient made during the sixth Scientific Cruise of the Indian Oceanographic Ship INS Kistna in the Bay of Bengal during February–March 1963 are presented. Observations were made when the skies were generally clear and the sea calm, in the geographical area 8°N to 17°N and 80°E to 95°E, on the outward journey of INS Kistna from Madras (80°E, 13°N) to Port Blair (93°E, 12°N) and on the return journey to Madras.Over the ocean where there are no local sources of pollution, the measured values of conductivity and potential gradient are in agreement with theoretical values, assuming that an ion equilibrium exists, that ions are destroyed primarily by collision with small ions of opposite sign and that small ions are produced only by cosmic radiation. The values of electrical conductivity obtained are generally of the same order as those to be expected from theoretical considerations and in general agreement with those obtained during the Carnegie cruises in the Indian Ocean in 1920. There are, however, significant variations near the coast where the electric structure above the ocean is affected by continental sources of pollution. Conductivity values near the land are about half that in the unpolluted air over the ocean but prevailing winds prevent the extension of pollution beyond 100–200 km from the coast in this season.

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Zusammenfassung Es wird über Messungen der luftelektrischen Leitfähigkeit und des Potentialgefälles berichtet, welche während der Sechsten Wissenschaftlichen Kreuzfahrt des indischen Ozeanographischen Forschungsschiffes Ins Kistna in der Bengalischen Bucht im Februar und März 1963 ausgeführt wurden. Die Beobachtungen sind im allgemeinen bei klarem Himmel und ruhiger See gemacht worden, und zwar in dem geographischen Bereich zwischen 8 und 17°N und 80 und 95°E während der Ausfahrt der INS Kistna von Madras (80°E, 13°N) nach Port Blair (93°E, 12°N) und auf der Rückreise nach Madras. In den Bereichen des Ozeans, in denen keine örtlichen Pollutionsquellen bestehen, stimmen die gemessenen Werte der Leitfähigkeit und des Potentialgefälles mit den theoretischen Werten überein, die man erhält, wenn man annimmt, dass ein Ionengleichgewicht besteht, dass die schnellen Ionen vorwiegend durch Zusammenstoss mit schnellen Ionen des entgegengesetzten Vorzeichens vernichtet werden, und dass die schnellen Ionen nur durch die kosmische Höhenstrahlung erzeugt werden. Die Werte der Leitfähigkeit stimmen mit denen überein, die man aus theoretischen Überlegungen gewinnt, und auch mit denen, die während der Kreuzfahrten des Forschungsschiffes Carnegie im Indischen Ozean im Jahre 1920 gemessen Küste sind jedoch bedeutsame Abweichungen festzustellen, wo die elektrischen Verhältenisse über dem Ozean durch Pollutionsquellen auf dem Lande beeinflusst werden. Die Leitfähigkeitswerte nahe dem Land sind nur ungefähr halb so gross wie die in der pollutionsfreien Luft des offenen Ozeans-jedoch haben die während der Mess-Jahreszeit vorherrschenden Winde eine Ausbreitung der Pollutionszone auf einen Bereich von 100 bis 200 km von der Küste beschränkt.

     

Reporting negative results to stimulate experimental hydrology: discussion of “The role of experimental work in hydrological sciences – insights from a community survey”*

ABSTRACT

Experimental work in hydrology is in decline. Based on a community survey, Blume et al. showed that the hydrological community associates experimental work with greater risks. One of the main issues with experimental work is the higher chance of negative results (defined here as when the expected or wanted result was not observed despite careful experimental design, planning and execution), resulting in a longer and more difficult publishing process. Reporting on negative results would avoid putting time and resources into repeating experiments that lead to negative results, and give experimental hydrologists the scientific recognition they deserve. With this commentary, we propose four potential solutions to encourage reporting on negative results, which might contribute to a stimulation of experimental hydrology.     

Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.     

Vertical Structure in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer and its Implication for the Inertial Dissipation Method

The structure of the marine atmospheric boundarylayer and the validity ofMonin–Obukhov similarity theory over the seahave been investigated using longterm measurements. Three levels of turbulencemeasurements (at 10 m, 18 mand 26 m) at Östergarnsholm in themiddle of the Baltic Sea have beenanalysed. The results show that turbulentparameters have a strong dependenceon the actual height due to wave influence.The wind profile and thus thenormalised wind gradient are very sensitiveto wave state. The lower part of theboundary layer can be divided into three heightlayers, a wave influenced layerclose to the surface, a transition layer andan undisturbed ordinary surfacelayer; the depth of the layers is determinedby the wave state. This heightstructure can, however, not be found for thenormalised dissipation, which is onlya function of the stability, except duringpronounced swell where the actualheight also has to be accounted for. Theresults have implications for the heightvariation of the turbulent kinetic energy(TKE) budget. Thus, the imbalancebetween production and dissipation willalso vary with height according to thevariation of wave state. This, in turn,will of course have strong implicationsfor the inertial dissipation method, inwhich a parameterisation of the TKEbudget is used.     

Near-Surface Flow Fields Deduced Using Correlation Tracking and Time-Distance Analyses

Near-photospheric flow fields on the Sun are deduced using two independent methods applied to the same time series of velocity images observed by SOI-MDI on SOHO. Differences in travel times between f modes entering and leaving each pixel measured using time-distance helioseismology are used to determine sites of supergranular outflows. Alternatively, correlation tracking analysis of mesogranular scales of motion applied to the same time series is used to deduce the near-surface flow field. These two approaches provide the means to assess the patterns and evolution of horizontal flows on supergranular scales even near disk center, which is not feasible with direct line-of-sight Doppler measurements. We find that the locations of the supergranular outflows seen in flow fields generated from correlation tracking coincide well with the locations of the outflows determined from the time-distance analysis, with a mean correlation coefficient after smoothing of _s=0.890. Near-surface velocity field measurements can be used to study the evolution of the supergranular network, as merging and splitting events are observed to occur in these images. The data consist of one 2048-min time series of high-resolution (0.6 pixels) line-of-sight velocity images taken by MDI on 1997 January 16–18 at a cadence of one minute.     

PM10 and heavy metal measurements in an industrial area of southern Italy

Atmospheric particulate concentrations and heavy metal content are measured from March to July 2001 at an industrial site located in a rural zone of the southern Italy. PM₁₀ samples are collected by a low-volume sampler and each sample is analysed by AAS techniques for its content of Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn. We measure also temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity, and we collect anemometric data. The study purpose is the investigation of pollutant levels in an industrial area located in a rather unpolluted region and the characterization of the correlation structure among particulate concentrations, heavy metal content and local meteorological parameters. Data analysis is carried out by means of univariate and multivariate statistical methods. In the investigated period, the average value of PM₁₀ daily concentrations (24 μg Nm^− 3) does not exceed the national standard of 40 μg Nm^− 3 and only nine values are higher than the European daily limit value of 50 μg Nm^− 3. Particularly, the occurrence of two anomalous values (183 μg Nm^− 3 in 3 March and 94 μg Nm^− 3 in 22 June) seems to be related to no-local events as confirmed both by in situ data measured in the AQM network of Potenza city (about 10 km far from the study area) and by remote measurements performed in the same days. Regarding the heavy metal levels, we observe high levels of Cr (34 ng Nm^− 3), Ni (85 ng Nm^− 3) and Zn (214 ng Nm^− 3) in agreement with the local industrial source pattern. The multivariate analysis, carried out using meteorological parameters as exogenous variables, allow to evaluate the role of the different variables as driving factors of the correlation structure among the metals.     

Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea

A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10⁻³ and 2.7 × 10⁻³ events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10⁻³ within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.