The first cuckoo in winter: Phenology,recording, credibility and meaning in Britain

Biological recording is a long-established feature of amateur natural history in Britain. Phenology (the recording of seasonal events) in particular has provided scientists with important long-term data sets. These data are of increasing interest as indicators of climate change and its impacts. Most scientists treat the data as the object of interest, while less attention has been paid to the two-way process of knowledge creation, and the significance of the inner, personal part of that. Phenological recording provides an interesting window on this because it is relatively straightforward (and therefore involves a wider range of people than more technically demanding recording), and because it is linked to the climate change discourse (and therefore connected with emotional and moral framings of the situation). This paper describes the rise of popular phenology in the UK and explores these dynamically related aspects of knowledge creation by drawing on accounts in the media and by participants. It concludes that reflexivity and credibility are important aspects of both personal and interpersonal meaning-making, and suggests that attention to both subjective integration of data, and the scale of local cultures of knowledge, are important in understanding the potential for connecting networks of citizen science. Phenology therefore appears to have a particular role to play in public understanding of climate change, which extends beyond the merely extractive collection of data to a more deeply integrated connection between observation and meaning.     

Solar Microflares Observed by SphinX and RHESSI

In 2009, the Russian Complex Orbital Observations Near-Earth of Activity of the Sun (CORONAS-Photon) spacecraft was launched, carrying the Polish Solar PHotometer In X-rays (SphinX). The SphinX was most sensitive in the spectral range 1.2?–?15 keV, thus an excellent opportunity appeared for comparison with the low-energy end of Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) spectra. Common spectral measurements with these instruments cover the range where most of the flare energy is accumulated. We have chosen four consecutive small solar events observed on 4 July 2009 at 13:43 UT, 13:48 UT, 13:52 UT, and 13:55 UT (RHESSI flare peak times) and used them to compare the data and results from the two instruments. Moreover, we included Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) records in our analysis. In practice, the range of comparison performed for SphinX and RHESSI is limited roughly to 3?–?6 keV. RHESSI fluxes measured with a use of one, four, and nine detectors in the 3?–?4 keV energy band agree with SphinX measurements. However, we observed that SphinX spectral irradiances are three times higher than those of RHESSI in the 4?–?6 keV energy band. This effect contributes to the difference in obtained emission measures, but the derived temperatures of plasma components are similar. RHESSI spectra were fitted using a model with two thermal components. We have found that the RHESSI hot component is in agreement with GOES, and the RHESSI hotter component fits the SphinX flaring component well. Moreover, we calculated the so-called thermodynamic measure and the total thermal energy content in the four microflares that we studied. The results obtained show that SphinX is a very sensitive complementary observatory for RHESSI and GOES.     

HESS J1616−508: likely to be powered by PSR J1617−5055

HESS J1616−508 is one of the brightest emitters in the TeV sky. Recent observations with the IBIS/ISGRI telescope onboard the INTEGRAL spacecraft have revealed that a young, nearby and energetic pulsar, PSR J1617−5055, is a powerful emitter of soft γ-rays in the 20–100 keV domain. In this paper, we present an analysis of all available data from the INTEGRAL , Swift , BeppoSAX and XMM–Newton telescopes with a view to assessing the most likely counterpart to the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS) source. We find that the energy source that fuels the X/γ-ray emissions is derived from the pulsar, both on the basis of the positional morphology, the timing evidence and the energetics of the system. Likewise the 1.2 per cent of the pulsar's spin-down energy loss needed to power the 0.1–10 TeV emission is also fully consistent with other HESS sources known to be associated with pulsars. The relative sizes of the X/γ-ray and very high energy sources are consistent with the expected lifetimes against synchrotron and Compton losses for a single source of parent electrons emitted from the pulsar. We find that no other known object in the vicinity could be reasonably considered as a plausible counterpart to the HESS source. We conclude that there is good evidence to assume that the HESS J1616−508 source is driven by PSR J1617−5055 in which a combination of synchrotron and inverse-Compton processes combine to create the observed morphology of a broad-band emitter from keV to TeV energies.     

The Method of Measurements of Celestial Coordinates in Wide-Field TV-Frames

We present a method for calculations of equatorial coordinates of any point in the single frame of the wide-field TV systems. This method can be applying for the different television systems [wide-field cameras, all-sky cameras, the cameras with the hybrid TV-system (the system with coupled of the Image Intensifier) et al.]. In that system the calculations of distortions are difficult. Therefore, we devised this method which helps decrease errors (due to distortion and the electro-optical system).The method can be used for measuring of equatorial coordinates of meteor tracks under difficult conditions during the observations such as partial cloudiness, small number of stars and large distortions of the coordinate grid in the frame. These restrictions cannot be overcome by other methods. In the case of the small number of stars the present method using of the reference stars received on a series of frames during the observation period. The accuracy of the method has been estimated to be 4′–8′ (for cameras with fov 50°?×?40° at the CCD 720?×?576 pixels) for maximum number of reference points in the frame. The method used 3 reference points for calculation of the equatorial coordinates of the object. One can use this method if the camera was re-oriented as well. We use this method for our wide field of view cameras.     

Application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios: Reflections and lessons learnt

The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios have become the standard reference for climate change in the UK since their release in 2002. This paper describes and reflects on the ways in which they have been applied. It then identifies some strengths, weaknesses and barriers to their application, and extracts key lessons that may inform the development and provision of future climate change scenarios.Analysis of the application of UKCIP02 shows that the scenarios have been used primarily as a communication device, as well as for scientific research and to inform policy and decision-making on climate change. They have played a critical role in raising awareness on climate change and in engaging organisations in the need to adapt. Their presentation in an accessible style, and their availability in a variety of formats, greatly facilitated their uptake. However, analysis has also revealed weaknesses which served as barriers to their uptake. Some of these, such as file format and accessibility issues, were readily overcome through technical solutions. Others, such as the issue of how to use uncertain information in decision-making, have only been partially addressed and remain an outstanding challenge for future scenario packages. Two key lessons have emerged which may benefit the provision of future climate scenarios in the UK and elsewhere. First, it is not enough to simply make climate change scenarios available. Their provision must be accompanied by ongoing guidance and support to ensure widespread and appropriate uptake. Second, on-going dialogue between those providing scenarios and the communities using them is fundamental to constructively meet the challenges associated with delivering credible scenarios that balance user requirements and expectations with what the science can deliver.     

Short-Period Fluctuations in Coronal Mass Ejection Activity during Solar Cycle 23

We have constructed a time series of the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by SOHO/LASCO during solar cycle 23. Using spectral analysis techniques (the maximum entropy method and wavelet analysis) we found short-period (< one year) semiperiodic activity. Among others, we found interesting periodicities at 193, 36, 28, and 25 days. We discuss the implications of such short-period activity in terms of the emergence and escape of magnetic flux from the convection zone, through the low solar atmosphere (where these periodicities have been found for numerous activity parameters), toward interplanetary space. This analysis shows that CMEs remove the magnetic flux in a quasiperiodic process in a way similar to that of magnetic flux emergence and other solar eruptive activity.     

Hilda asteroids among Jupiter family comets

Hilda asteroids and comets are similar from the compositional point of view. The D-taxonomic class prevailing among Hildas has all the characteristics found in cometary spectra. Jupiter Family Comets (JFCs) coming from the trans-neptunian region are under the gravitational control of Jupiter, making them a dynamically unstable population with a mean dynamical lifetime of 10⁴ to ¹⁰⁵ years. In contrast, Hilda asteroids residing in the 3:2 mean motion resonance with Jupiter are a very stable population. But once they escape from the resonance, they are dynamically controlled by Jupiter, and in this sense their behavior resembles that of JFC. We performed a numerical simulation to analyze the dynamical evolution that Hildas follow after escaping from the resonance, and their contribution to the JFC population. We found that 8% of the particles leaving the resonance end up impacting Jupiter. 98.7% of the escaped Hildas live at least 1000 years as a JFC, with a mean lifetime of 1.4×¹⁰⁶ years. In particular, escaped Hildas stay mainly in the region of perihelion distances greater than 2.5 AU. On the other hand, the number of escaped Hildas reaching the inner Solar System (q<2.5 AU) is negligible. So, there are almost no Hilda asteroids among the NEO population. We also analyzed the possibility that the Shoemaker-Levy 9 were an escaped Hilda asteroid. In this case, it would be possible to give stronger constraints to its pre-capture orbital elements.     

Magnetic properties of the LL5 ordinary chondrite Chelyabinsk (fall of February 15, 2013)

Here we characterize the magnetic properties of the Chelyabinsk chondrite (LL5, S4, W0) and constrain the composition, concentration, grain size distribution, and mineral fabric of the meteorite's magnetic mineral assemblage. Data were collected from 10 to 1073 K and include measurements of low‐field magnetic susceptibility (χ₀), the anisotropy of χ₀, hysteresis loops, first‐order reversal curves, Mössbauer spectroscopy, and X‐ray microtomography. The REM and REM′ paleointensity protocols suggest that the only magnetizations recorded by the chondrite are components of the Earth's magnetic field acquired during entry into our planet's atmosphere. The Chelyabinsk chondrite consists of light and dark lithologies. Fragments of the light lithology show logχ₀ = 4.57 ± 0.09 (s.d.) (n = 135), while the dark lithology shows 4.65 ± 0.09 (n = 39) (where χ₀ is in 10^?9 m³ kg^?1). Thus, Chelyabinsk is three times more magnetic than the average LL5 fall, but is similar to a subgroup of metal‐rich LL5 chondrites (Paragould, Aldsworth, Bawku, Richmond) and L/LL5 chondrites (Glanerbrug, Knyahinya). The meteorite's room‐temperature magnetization is dominated by multidomain FeNi alloys taenite and kamacite (no tetrataenite is present). However, below approximately 75 K remanence is dominated by chromite. The metal contents of the light and dark lithologies are 3.7 and 4.1 wt%, respectively, and are based on values of saturation magnetization.