Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea

A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10⁻³ and 2.7 × 10⁻³ events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10⁻³ within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.     

Axially symmetric flow round a non-conducting obstacle in the shape of a hemisphere by a homogeneous electrical current field

m amamu n¶rt;ma au ¶rt; nmuaa mu n ma a, ¶rt;a ¶rt;¶rt; maua mu n ¶rt; nmam ¶rt;um n¶rt; nnmmu n. u m umau n aa mau a, m m nmmu ma nu ¶rt;¶rt; n naa u umuu n. maa a¶rt;aa a u um ¶rt;uam. a u nu¶rt;m um ua u au, nu u n a auu mam, n¶rt;ma [5, 6]. m um nu num m amamu au ¶rt; nmuaa mu n, n¶rt;mau u¶rt; ¶rt;a nu a¶rt;a.     

Monte guardia sequence: a late-pleistocene eruptive cycle on Lipari (Italy)

This paper documents a complex sequence of interbedded lapilli-fall, base-surge, and pyroclastic-flow deposits, here named the Monte Guardia sequence, that erupted from volcanic centers in the southern part of Lipari (Aeolian Island Arc). Radiocarbon data from ash-flow tuffs above and below this sequence bracket its eruption between 22,600 and 16,800 years ago. Geologic evidence, however, suggests that this single eruptive cycle had a more restricted duration of years to tens-of-years. The basis for our interpretations comes from data measured at 38 detailed sections located throughout the island. The Monte Guardia sequence rests on a series of lower rhyolitic endogenous domes in the southern part of Lipari and it covers the oldest lavas, lahars, and pyroclastic flows in the north. Only in the northeast part of the island is it covered by younger deposits which there consist of lapilli tuffs and lavas of the Monte Pilato rhyolitic cycle. The deposit ranges in thickness from more than 60 m surrounding the vents in the south to less than a few decimeters at 10 km distance in the north. Throughout most of the island the Monte Guardia sequence overlies a thin andesitic lapilli-fall layer which is a key bed for correlation. This lapilli tuff probably erupted from a volcanic center on another island of the Aeolian Arc (possibly Salina). The principal activity of the Monte Guardia sequence started with an explosion that formed a continuous breccia blanket covering most of the island. Some pumiceous blocks within this breccia are composed of alternating bands of acidic and andesitic composition suggesting that the initiation of pyroclastic activity could have been triggered by magma mixing. Typical Monte Guardia sequence consists of explosive products that grade from magmatic (pumice-fall) to phreatomagmatic (base-surge) character. The eruptive cycle is characterized by a number of energy decreasing megarhythms that start with a lapilli-fall bed and end with a base-surge set that progresses through sand-wave, massive, and planar beds. Isopach maps of the fall and surge deposits indicate that both types were directed to the northwest by prevailing winds. Existing topographic relief was an additional factor that affected the emplacement of surge products. At the end of the cycle andesitic pyroclastic flows and rhyolitic endogenous domes were emplaced above the Monte Guardia deposits near the vent.     

MELIMEX,an experimental heavy metal pollution study: Particle size distributions in limno-corrals

The particle size distributions in three limno-corrals, located in Baldeggersee, Switzerland, have been determined by means of a Zeiss Micro-Videomat image analyzer as a function of depth and time. The distributions were measured biweekly over a period of 1 year at depths of 0 m, 2.5 m, 5 m, 7.5 m and 10 m (=above bottom). Two of the limno-corrals were charged with heavy metals, whereas the third was uncharged and served as a reference. The shape of the distributions as well as the particle concentrations in the uncharged container did not differ from the ones in the charged limno-corrals. The distributions were found to be self-preserving and independent on heavy metal load, time, depth and particle concentrations. As an average, the dependence of the distributions on the particle diameter was found to be ?1.5 to ?2.5.     

A comment on the effect of discretization on dispersion

a mamumuu m, m n¶rt; u a¶rt;a au, um ¶rt;umuau. aam, m a au ¶rt;unu a¶rt;a au n ¶rt;umuauu u n¶rt; nu a an¶rt; a u uu aa ,¶rt; h a ¶rt;umuauu.     

Dirichlet's problem for a body limited by two intersecting spherical surfaces

Summary The solution of the internal and external Dirichlet problem is given without assuming rotational symmetry for a body, limited by two intersecting spherical surfaces. The problem is treated in a toroidal system of co-ordinates, using the generalized Mehler integral transform. The results are compared with the solution, presented by Lebedev [1] for the case of rotational symmetry.     

Application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios: Reflections and lessons learnt

The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios have become the standard reference for climate change in the UK since their release in 2002. This paper describes and reflects on the ways in which they have been applied. It then identifies some strengths, weaknesses and barriers to their application, and extracts key lessons that may inform the development and provision of future climate change scenarios.Analysis of the application of UKCIP02 shows that the scenarios have been used primarily as a communication device, as well as for scientific research and to inform policy and decision-making on climate change. They have played a critical role in raising awareness on climate change and in engaging organisations in the need to adapt. Their presentation in an accessible style, and their availability in a variety of formats, greatly facilitated their uptake. However, analysis has also revealed weaknesses which served as barriers to their uptake. Some of these, such as file format and accessibility issues, were readily overcome through technical solutions. Others, such as the issue of how to use uncertain information in decision-making, have only been partially addressed and remain an outstanding challenge for future scenario packages. Two key lessons have emerged which may benefit the provision of future climate scenarios in the UK and elsewhere. First, it is not enough to simply make climate change scenarios available. Their provision must be accompanied by ongoing guidance and support to ensure widespread and appropriate uptake. Second, on-going dialogue between those providing scenarios and the communities using them is fundamental to constructively meet the challenges associated with delivering credible scenarios that balance user requirements and expectations with what the science can deliver.     

High frequency oscillations during magnetar flares

The recent discovery of high frequency oscillations during giant flares from the Soft Gamma Repeaters SGR 1806-20 and SGR 1900+14 may be the first direct detection of vibrations in a neutron star crust. If this interpretation is correct it offers a novel means of testing the neutron star equation of state, crustal breaking strain, and magnetic field configuration. We review the observational data on the magnetar oscillations, including new timing analysis of the SGR 1806-20 giant flare using data from the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager and the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer. We discuss the implications for the study of neutron star structure and crust thickness, and outline areas for future investigation.      

The first cuckoo in winter: Phenology,recording, credibility and meaning in Britain

Biological recording is a long-established feature of amateur natural history in Britain. Phenology (the recording of seasonal events) in particular has provided scientists with important long-term data sets. These data are of increasing interest as indicators of climate change and its impacts. Most scientists treat the data as the object of interest, while less attention has been paid to the two-way process of knowledge creation, and the significance of the inner, personal part of that. Phenological recording provides an interesting window on this because it is relatively straightforward (and therefore involves a wider range of people than more technically demanding recording), and because it is linked to the climate change discourse (and therefore connected with emotional and moral framings of the situation). This paper describes the rise of popular phenology in the UK and explores these dynamically related aspects of knowledge creation by drawing on accounts in the media and by participants. It concludes that reflexivity and credibility are important aspects of both personal and interpersonal meaning-making, and suggests that attention to both subjective integration of data, and the scale of local cultures of knowledge, are important in understanding the potential for connecting networks of citizen science. Phenology therefore appears to have a particular role to play in public understanding of climate change, which extends beyond the merely extractive collection of data to a more deeply integrated connection between observation and meaning.