Use of a parsimonious rainfall–run‐off model for predicting hydrological response in ungauged basins

A new parameter parsimonious rainfall–run‐off model, the Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD) model, is used to simulate hydrological time series at ungauged sites in the Lygne basin in Norway. The model parameters were estimated as functions of catchment characteristics determined by geographical information system. The multiple regression equations relating catchment characteristics and model parameters were trained from 84 calibrated catchments located all over Norway, and all model parameters showed significant correlations with catchment characteristics. The significant correlation coefficients (with p‐value < 0.05) ranged from 0.22 to 0.55. The suitability of DDD for predictions in ungauged basins was tested for 17 catchments not used to estimate the multiple regression equations. For ten of the 17 catchments, deviations in Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) criteria between the calibrated and regionalised model were less than 0.1, and for two calibrated catchments within the Lygne basin, the deviations were less than 0.08. The median NSE for the regionalized DDD for the 17 catchments for two time series was 0.66 and 0.72. Deviations in NSE between calibrated and regionalised models are well explained by the deviations between calibrated and regressed parameters describing spatial snow distribution and snowmelt respectively. The quality of the simulated run‐off series for the ungauged sites in the Lygne basin was assessed by comparing flow indices describing high, medium and low flow estimated from observed run‐off at the 17 catchments and for the simulated run‐off series. The indices estimated for the simulated series were generally well within the ranges defined by the 17 observed series. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Highlands management in a flood-prone watershed: Does reflexive reciprocity make a difference?

Poor levels of reciprocity (or “upstream/downstream” situations) are believed to discourage responsible actions and thus make sustainability harder to achieve. This paper presents a study that compares land use management resulting from concurrent reflexive reciprocal and nonreciprocal relationships in a Haitian watershed. The watershed is typically nonreciprocal in that flash floods and debris flows affecting the lowlands are thought to be initiated by upslope land management. It differs from conventional nonreciprocal cases in that the majority of people living in the lowlands own or otherwise manage upslope land. Concepts of reciprocity and self-interest indicate that downslope-residing land managers should implement more upland hazard-reduction conservation practices than upslope-residing land managers. This idea was tested using data on the number of soil conservation measures applied to upslope land parcels. The resulting multilevel model demonstrated that downslope households report employing more soil conservation measures in their upslope fields than upslope households. Additional communal actions to increase assurances of working in concert, however, are still needed to reduce disaster vulnerability.     

Modelling the effects of changes in rainfall event characteristics on TSS loads in urban runoff

The effect of changes in rainfall event characteristics on urban stormwater quality, which was described by total suspended solids (TSS), was studied by means of computer simulations conducted with the Storm Water Management Model for a climate change scenario for northern Sweden. The simulation results showed that TSS event loads depended mainly on rainfall depth and intensity, but not on antecedent conditions. Storms with low‐to‐intermediate depths and intensities showed the highest sensitivity to changes in rainfall input, both for percentage and absolute changes in TSS wash‐off loads, which was explained by the contribution of pervious areas and supply limitations. This has significant implications for stormwater management, because those relatively frequent events generally carry a high percentage of the annual pollutant load. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Growth,dynamics and deglaciation of the last British–Irish ice sheet: the deep-sea ice-rafted detritus record

The evolution and dynamics of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) have hitherto largely been reconstructed from onshore and shallow marine glacial geological and geomorphological data. This reconstruction has been problematic because these sequences and data are spatially and temporally incomplete and fragmentary. In order to enhance BIIS reconstruction, we present a compilation of new and previously published ice-rafted detritus (IRD) flux and concentration data from high-resolution sediment cores recovered from the NE Atlantic deep-sea continental slope adjacent to the last BIIS. These cores are situated adjacent to the full latitudinal extent of the last BIIS and cover Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 2 and 3. Age models are based on radiocarbon dating and graphical tuning of abundances of the polar planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral (% Nps) to the Greenland GISP2 ice core record. Multiple IRD fingerprinting techniques indicate that, at the selected locations, most IRD are sourced from adjacent BIIS ice streams except in the centre of Heinrich (H) layers in which IRD shows a prominent Laurentide Ice Sheet provenance. IRD flux data are interpreted with reference to a conceptual model explaining the relations between flux, North Atlantic hydrography and ice dynamics. Both positive and rapid negative mass balance can cause increases, and prominent peaks, in IRD flux. First-order interpretation of the IRD record indicates the timing of the presence of the BIIS with an actively calving marine margin. The records show a coherent latitudinal, but partly phased, signal during MIS 3 and 2. Published data indicate that the last BIIS initiated during the MIS 5/4 cooling transition; renewed growth just before H5 (46 ka) was succeeded by very strong millennial-scale variability apparently corresponding with Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) cycles closely coupled to millennial-scale climate variability in the North Atlantic region involving latitudinal migration of the North Atlantic Polar Front. This indicates that the previously defined “precursor events” are not uniquely associated with H events but are part of the millennial-scale variability. Major growth of the ice sheet occurred after 29 ka with the Barra Ice Stream attaining a shelf-edge position and generating turbiditic flows on the Barra–Donegal Fan at ～27 ka. The ice sheet reached its maximum extent at H2 (24 ka), earlier than interpreted in previous studies. Rapid retreat, initially characterised by peak IRD flux, during Greenland Interstadial 2 (23 ka) was followed by readvance between 22 and 16 ka. Readvance during H1 was only characterised by BIIS ice streams draining central dome(s) of the ice sheet, and was followed by rapid deglaciation and ice exhaustion. The evidence for a calving margin and IRD supply from the BIIS during Greenland Stadial 1 (Younger Dryas event) is equivocal. The timing of the initiation, maximum extent, deglacial and readvance phases of the BIIS interpreted from the IRD flux record is strongly supported by recent independent data from both the Irish Sea and North Sea sectors of the ice sheet.     

Neogene glacigenic debris flows on James Ross Island,northern Antarctic Peninsula,and their implications for regional climate history

Detailed sedimentological and microtextural analyses of newly-discovered late Neogene diamictites and other coarse-grained facies, mostly sandwiched between hyaloclastite of the James Ross Island Volcanic Group and Cretaceous sandstone and mudstone, indicate deposition mainly by glacigenic debris flows. The deposits on James Ross Island (northern Antarctic Peninsula) constrain the depositional setting, ice–bed dynamics and regional palaeoclimate. The sequences on James Ross Island vary in age but are mainly late Miocene and Pliocene. Unlike Neogene sedimentary sequences elsewhere in Antarctica, those on James Ross Island are unusually well-dated by a combination of ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr analyses on fresh interbedded lavas and pristine bivalve molluscs, respectively. The Sr isotopic ages of the debris flows cluster around 4.74, 4.89, 5.44, 5.78, and 6.31 Ma and probably date relatively warm periods in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region, when the bivalves lived under ice-poor or seasonally ice-free conditions. The bivalves are often remarkably well-preserved, lack adhering lithified sediment and, in at least two locations, are large, mainly unfragmented and sometimes articulated, suggesting that they were alive immediately prior to their incorporation in subaqueous debris flows at the margins of an advancing glacier. These fossiliferous glacigenic debris flows signify episodes of ice expansion during relatively warm periods, or “interglacials”, of the late Miocene and Pliocene. The James Ross Island glacigenic sedimentary successions attain thicknesses of up to 150 m and extend over 4 km laterally. The high volume of glacigenic sediment delivery implicit in the James Ross Island successions indicates that a series of dynamic ice fronts crossed the region during the late Miocene and Pliocene epochs. Associated evidence, in the form of clast abrasion (including striations and faceting) and bedrock erosion, is indicative of basal sliding and subglacial sediment deformation active at the ice–bed interface and wet-based temperate or polythermal regimes, prior to remobilisation. The evidence further suggests two local ice caps on James Ross Island during the warm periods, as well as ice-overriding by the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet from the west and northwest.     

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.