Structural,dynamic and anthropic conditions that trigger the emergence of the levee effect: insight from a simplified risk-based framework

ABSTRACT

Levees are the most common structural solution to prevent flooding, reduce damage and generate benefits through more investment/economic activity in floodplain areas. While being relatively easy to build, levee effectiveness can be compromised by poor design and substandard construction methods and maintenance, thus increasing failure probability. Further, levees might increase societal vulnerability by instilling a sense of safety, the so-called “levee effect”. To cope with these phenomena, we develop a risk-based framework that quantifies residual risk under levee breaching and the levee effect, by disentangling its structural, dynamic and anthropic components, thus contributing to a better understanding of the phenomena at different spatial scales and the definition of flood risk policies. Through an illustrative example, we show how residual risk might become larger than under natural conditions, as function of the scale of interest, e.g. an area, a line at a given distance from the river, or a point within the floodplain.     

Mythos and techne: An essay on the intercultural function of territory in sub-Saharan geography

Territorial symbolism in sub-Saharan Africa calls to mind multiple forms of knowledge. More particularly, territorial significance is fed both by magical and sacred beliefs and by knowledge based on empirical observation and concrete practices. These two types of knowledge differ widely as to their nature, the procedures by which they are formed, and the cultural values they embody. Nevertheless, semantic interaction between mythical knowledge and technical knowledge is remarkably rich. By blurring the distinction between mythos and techne, this semantic interaction seems to constitute an important cultural tool for building feelings of social security in that it reinforces and stabilizes socio-geographic patterns, and more especially those which regulate access to space and natural resources. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Constraints from geochemistry and Sr–Nd isotopes for the origin of albitite deposits from Central Sardinia (Italy)

Major- and trace-element contents and Sr–Nd isotope ratios were determined in albitite, albitized and unaltered late-Variscan granitoid samples from the world-class Na-feldspar deposits of central Sardinia, Italy. The albite deposit of high economic grade has geological, textural, and chemical features typical of metasomatic alteration affecting the host granitoids. Albitization, locally accompanied by chloritization and epidotization, was characterized by strong leaching of Mg, Fe, K, and geochemically similar trace elements, and by a significant increase of Na. Ca, and P were moderately leached in the most metasomatized rocks. Other major (Si, Ti, Ca) and trace elements (U, Th, Y, and Zr), along with light (LREE) and middle (MREE) rare-earth elements, behaved essentially immobile at the deposit scale. The Nd-isotope ratios (0.512098 to 0.512248) do not provide information on the emplacement age of the unaltered late-Variscan granitoids. On the other hand, their Sr-isotope ratios fit an errorchron of 274±29 Ma (1σ error), in fair agreement with all published ages of Sardinian Variscan granitoids. The very low Rb content of albitized rocks precludes application of the Rb–Sr radiometric system to determine the age of albitization. The Sm–Nd system is not applicable either, because the ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios of albitized rocks and unaltered granitoids overlap. The overlap confirms that Sm and Nd were substantially immobile during albitization. On the other hand, the measured ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of the albitized rocks are appreciably lower than those of the unaltered host granitoids, whereas, their initial Sr-isotope ratios are higher. This seems to suggest that a) albitization was induced by non-magmatic fluids rich in radiogenic Sr, and b) albitization occurred shortly after the granitoid emplacement. This conclusion is supported by Nd isotopes, because unaltered granitoids and albitites fit the same reference isochron at 274 Ma. The fluids acquired radiogenic Sr by circulation through the Lower Paleozoic metasedimentary basement. Specifically, it is estimated that Sr supplied by the non-carbonatic basement represents about 22 wt% of total Sr in albitite.     

Li,Pb and Tl abundances in the K-alkaline rocks from the Middle Latina Valley volcanoes (southern Latium,Italy) and their petrological significance

Li, Pb and Tl contents of 15 primitive lava samples from the Middle Latina Valley volcanoes (southern Latium, Italy) are higher in the high-K than in the K-Series rocks, the enrichment factors roughly following the increase of the ionic size of the elements.The abundances in both series are higher than those of typical alkali basalts from oceanic environments, but similar to those of granitoid rocks. Such anomalous features may be explained as due to either crustal contamination of the parental magmas or derivation of these latter from a lithophile-enriched mantle region due to metasomatism by a lower crust-derived fluid. In both hypotheses, however, a larger involvement of crustal materials is suggested for the HKS rocks.Comparison of Li, Pb and Tl abundances in the primitive rocks of the Middle Latina Valley and Roccamonfina volcanoes shows that, unlike the KS rocks from the two districts show comparable levels and probably originated under similar conditions, the HKS rocks from the Middle Latina Valley are enriched in Li, Pb and Tl relative to their analogues from Roccamonfina. This suggests either a higher involvement of crustal materials in their genesis, or an evolution at shallower depth in the crust.     

Data-driven retrieval of primary plane-wave responses

Seismic images provided by reverse time migration can be contaminated by artefacts associated with the migration of multiples. Multiples can corrupt seismic images, producing both false positives, that is by focusing energy at unphysical interfaces, and false negatives, that is by destructively interfering with primaries. Multiple prediction/primary synthesis methods are usually designed to operate on point source gathers and can therefore be computationally demanding when large problems are considered. A computationally attractive scheme that operates on plane-wave datasets is derived by adapting a data-driven point source gathers method, based on convolutions and cross-correlations of the reflection response with itself, to include plane-wave concepts. As a result, the presented algorithm allows fully data-driven synthesis of primary reflections associated with plane-wave source responses. Once primary plane-wave responses are estimated, they are used for multiple-free imaging via plane-wave reverse time migration. Numerical tests of increasing complexity demonstrate the potential of the proposed algorithm to produce multiple-free images from only a small number of plane-wave datasets.     

A Bayesian hierarchical approach for spatial analysis of climate model bias in multi-model ensembles

Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models are key tools to investigate climate dynamics and the climatic response to external forcings, to predict climate evolution and to generate future climate projections. Current general circulation models are, however, undisputedly affected by substantial systematic errors in their outputs compared to observations. The assessment of these so-called biases, both individually and collectively, is crucial for the models’ evaluation prior to their predictive use. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for a unified assessment of spatially referenced climate model biases in a multi-model framework. A key feature of our approach is that the model quantifies an overall common bias that is obtained by synthesizing bias across the different climate models in the ensemble, further determining the contribution of each model to the overall bias. Moreover, we determine model-specific individual bias components by characterizing them as non-stationary spatial fields. The approach is illustrated based on the case of near-surface air temperature bias in the tropical Atlantic and bordering regions from a multi-model ensemble of historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The results demonstrate the improved quantification of the bias and interpretative advantages allowed by the posterior distributions derived from the proposed Bayesian hierarchical framework, whose generality favors its broader application within climate model assessment.     

The macrozoobenthos of the Karavasta lagoon system (Albania): local assemblages and geographical comparisons

The macrozoobenthic assemblage from the Karavasta lagoon system, the main wetland of Albania, was studied on soft bottoms and artificial hard substrates. Three different communities were identified: the typical ‘brackish‐water community’, an ‘outlet community’ dominated by filter‐feeders, and a typical ‘marine community’, inhabiting fine sandy bottoms, where polychaetes are dominant, together with a few species of tunicates and bivalves, which colonize hard substrates. The occurrence of build‐ups of the bryozoan Conopeum seurati, settled on the upper portion of long submerged wooden poles, was the main feature of faunistic interest. The faunistic affinity between the zoobenthic assemblage recorded in the hyperhaline lagoon of Karavasta and the assemblages from two Italian lagoons, the brackish Lake of Lesina and the euhaline Lake of Fogliano, was considered according to the different hydrological conditions and the geographical location. Hydrological confinement and salinity were likely to be the leading factors influencing the benthic community composition in the Karavasta wetland area. Therefore, on a vaster spatial scale, the isolation and geographical proximity of the ecosystems and colonizing ability and dispersal changes of the species appear to be the main factors liable to produce faunal variations.     

A new versatile constitutive law for modelling the monotonic response of soft rocks and structured fine-grained soils

This paper deals with a new critical state–based constitutive model for soft rocks and fine-grained soils. The model, formulated in the single-surface plasticity framework, is characterised by the following main features: (i) a generalised three-invariant yield surface capable of reproducing a wide set of well-known criteria, (ii) the dependency of the elastic stiffness on the current stress state by means of a hyperelastic formulation, (iii) the ability of simulating the plastic strain–driven structure degradation processes by a set of appropriate isotropic hardening laws, and (iv) a nonassociate flow rule in the meridian plane. The adopted formulation is hierarchical, such that the various features of the model can be activated or excluded depending on the specific kind of geomaterial to be modelled and on the quality and quantity of the related available experimental results. The constitutive model was implemented in a commercial finite element code by means of an explicit modified Euler scheme with automatic substepping and error control. The procedure does not require any form of stress correction to prevent drift from the yield surface. The performance of the model is first analysed by means of a wide set of parametric analyses, in order to highlight the main features and to evaluate the sensitivity of the formulation with reference to the input parameters. The model is then adopted to simulate the experimental response observed on three different geomaterials, ranging from soft clays to soft rocks.     

Thermal springs,fumaroles and gas vents of continental Yemen: Their relation with active tectonics,regional hydrology and the country’s geothermal potential

Most thermal springs of continental Yemen (about 65 emergences at 48 sampling sites) and a couple of fumaroles and boiling water pools have been sampled and analyzed for chemical and isotopic composition in the liquid phase and the associated free-gas phase. Whatever the emergence, all the water discharges have an isotopic signature of meteoric origin. Springs seeping out from high altitudes in the central volcanic plateau show a prevalent Na–HCO₃-composition, clearly affected by an anomalous flux of deep CO₂ deriving from active hydrothermal systems located in the Jurassic Amran Group limestone sequence and/or the Cretaceous Tawilah Group, likely underlying the 2000–3000 m thick volcanic suite. At lower elevations, CO₂ also affects the composition of some springs emerging at the borders of the central volcanic plateau.