Climate change and summer mass tourism: the case of Spanish domestic tourism

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on destination choice decisions in a context of domestic coastal tourism in Spain. Destinations are characterized in terms of travel cost and coastal ‘attractors’, such as temperature and beach-related attributes. By means of a discrete choice model based on the random utility theory, these variables are used to explain the observed pattern of interprovincial domestic trips, showing trade-offs between temperature and attractiveness in the probability of a particular destination being chosen. The model is used to investigate the impact of two climate change scenarios on the allocation of domestic tourism within Spain. The findings show that while Spain’s northern colder provinces would benefit from rising temperatures, provinces in the south would experience a decrease in the frequency of trips.     

Seismic risk in the city of Al Hoceima (north of Morocco) using the vulnerability index method,applied in Risk-UE project

Al Hoceima is one of the most seismic active regions in north of Morocco. It is demonstrated by the large seismic episodes reported in seismic catalogs and research studies. However, seismic risk is relatively high due to vulnerable buildings that are either old or don’t respect seismic standards. Our aim is to present a study about seismic risk and seismic scenarios for the city of Al Hoceima. The seismic vulnerability of the existing residential buildings was evaluated using the vulnerability index method (Risk-UE). It was chosen to be adapted and applied to the Moroccan constructions for its practicality and simple methodology. A visual inspection of 1102 buildings was carried out to assess the vulnerability factors. As for seismic hazard, it was evaluated in terms of macroseismic intensity for two scenarios (a deterministic and probabilistic scenario). The maps of seismic risk are represented by direct damage on buildings, damage to population and economic cost. According to the results, the main vulnerability index of the city is equal to 0.49 and the seismic risk is estimated as Slight (main damage grade equal to 0.9 for the deterministic scenario and 0.7 for the probabilistic scenario). However, Moderate to heavy damage is expected in areas located in the newer extensions, in both the east and west of the city. Important economic losses and damage to the population are expected in these areas as well. The maps elaborated can be a potential guide to the decision making in the field of seismic risk prevention and mitigation strategies in Al Hoceima.     

Multivariate discriminant analysis distinguishes metal- from non metal-related biomarker responses in the clam Chamaelea gallina

Molecular biomarkers are among the most sensitive and earliest responses to pollutants. However, lack of detailed knowledge on variability of responses and their possible seasonal variation limit their use. In addition, the seasonality of biological processes modulates the response of organisms to pollutant stressors. Using multivariate statistics, we have studied the influence of environmental and biological factors on the response of a battery of molecular biomarkers in the clam Chamaelea gallina collected along the South-Spanish littoral. Multivariate discriminant analysis clearly distinguished biomarker response between clean and polluted areas, using heavy metals as indicator of pollution. Such differences disappeared when the dataset was normalised for metal content, thus indicating that pollution was the main significant cause of the changes observed between clean and polluted sites. In conclusion, this work shows that, when applying a complete biomarker panel, multivariate statistical tools can be used to discern pollutant- from non pollutant-related responses.     

An approach for quantifying geomorphological impacts for EIA of transportation infrastructures: a case study in northern Spain

A methodological proposal for the assessment of impacts due to linear infrastructures such as motorways, railways, etc. is presented. The approach proposed includes a series of specific issues to be addressed for each geomorphological feature analysed—both ‘static’ and ‘dynamic’—as well as a series of steps to be followed in the process.Geomorphic characteristics potentially affected were initially identified on the basis of a conceptual activities/impacts model that helps to single out geomorphic impacts related to environmental concerns for the area. The following issues were addressed for each individual impact: nature of potential effects; indicators that can be used to measure impacts; criteria of ‘geomorphologic performance’; procedure for measurement/prediction of changes; translation of geomorphologic impacts into significant terms from the viewpoint of human concerns; possible mitigation and/or compensation measures.The procedure has been applied to a case study corresponding to a new motorway in the Basque Country, northern Spain. Geomorphological impacts considered in this analysis included: (1) consumable resources; (2) sites of geomorphological interest; (3) land units with high potential for use, high productivity or value for conservation; (4) visual landscape; (5) slope instability processes. The procedure has been designed for implementation in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. Details are given on the application of the method to each individual impact analysed and results are presented in both numerical and map form.Impacts assessed were initially expressed by means of heterogeneous magnitudes, depending on the geomorphological feature considered. Those geomorphological impacts were then translated into significant terms and homogeneous magnitudes. Integration was carried out on the basis of impact values thus obtained. Final integrated results were also expressed in numerical and map form.The method proposed enables comparison of alternatives as well as ‘prediction’ and assessment of impacts in terms directly related to geomorphic characteristics. It also facilitates the expression of those impacts in terms that allow integration with other types of environmental impacts.     

Overview of integrative tools and methods in assessing ecological integrity in estuarine and coastal systems worldwide

In recent years, several sets of legislation worldwide (Oceans Act in USA, Australia or Canada; Water Framework Directive or Marine Strategy in Europe, National Water Act in South Africa, etc.) have been developed in order to address ecological quality or integrity, within estuarine and coastal systems. Most such legislation seeks to define quality in an integrative way, by using several biological elements, together with physico-chemical and pollution elements. Such an approach allows assessment of ecological status at the ecosystem level ('ecosystem approach' or 'holistic approach' methodologies), rather than at species level (e.g. mussel biomonitoring or Mussel Watch) or just at chemical level (i.e. quality objectives) alone. Increasing attention has been paid to the development of tools for different physico-chemical or biological (phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, algae, phanerogams, fishes) elements of the ecosystems. However, few methodologies integrate all the elements into a single evaluation of a water body. The need for such integrative tools to assess ecosystem quality is very important, both from a scientific and stakeholder point of view. Politicians and managers need information from simple and pragmatic, but scientifically sound methodologies, in order to show to society the evolution of a zone (estuary, coastal area, etc.), taking into account human pressures or recovery processes. These approaches include: (i) multidisciplinarity, inherent in the teams involved in their implementation; (ii) integration of biotic and abiotic factors; (iii) accurate and validated methods in determining ecological integrity; and (iv) adequate indicators to follow the evolution of the monitored ecosystems. While some countries increasingly use the establishment of marine parks to conserve marine biodiversity and ecological integrity, there is awareness (e.g. in Australia) that conservation and management of marine ecosystems cannot be restricted to Marine Protected Areas but must include areas outside such reserves. This contribution reviews the current situation of integrative ecological assessment worldwide, by presenting several examples from each of the continents: Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe and North America.     

Historical trends in Florida temperature and precipitation

Because of its low topographic relief, unique hydrology, and the large interannual variability of precipitation, Florida is especially vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, we investigate a comprehensive collection of climate metrics to study historical trends in both averages and extremes of precipitation and temperature in the state. The data investigated consist of long‐term records (1892–2008) of precipitation and raw (unadjusted) temperature at 32 stations distributed throughout the state. To evaluate trends in climate metrics, we use an iterative pre‐whitening method, which aims to separate positive autocorrelation from trend present in time series. Results show a general decrease in wet season precipitation, most evident for the month of May and possibly tied to a delayed onset of the wet season. In contrast, there seems to be an increase in the number of wet days during the dry season, especially during November through January. We found that the number of dog days (above 26.7 °C) during the year and during the wet season has increased at many locations. For the post‐1950 period, a widespread decrease in the daily temperature range (DTR) is observed mainly because of increased daily minimum temperature (Tmin). Although we did not attempt to formally attribute these trends to natural versus anthropogenic causes, we find that the urban heat island effect is at least partially responsible for the increase in Tmin and its corresponding decrease in DTR at urbanized stations compared with nearby rural stations. In the future, a formal trend attribution study should be conducted for the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sedimentary petrology and geochemistry of siliciclastic rocks from the upper Jurassic Tordillo Formation (Neuquén Basin, western Argentina): Implications for provenance and tectonic setting

The Upper Jurassic Tordillo Formation is exposed along the western edge of the Neuquén Basin (west central Argentina) and consists of fluvial strata deposited under arid/semiarid conditions. The pebble composition of conglomerates, mineralogical composition of sandstones and pelitic rocks, and major- and trace-element geochemistry of sandstones, mudstones, and primary pyroclastic deposits are evaluated to determine the provenance and tectonic setting of the sedimentary basin. Conglomerates and sandstones derived almost exclusively from volcanic sources. The stratigraphic sections to the south show a clast population of conglomerates dominated by silicic volcanic fragments and a predominance of feldspathic litharenites. This framework composition records erosion of Triassic–Jurassic synrift volcaniclastic rocks and basement rocks from the Huincul arch, which was exhumed as a result of Late Jurassic inversion. In the northwestern part of the study area, conglomerates show a large proportion of mafic and acidic volcanic rock fragments, and sandstones are characterised by a high content of mafic volcanic rock fragments and plagioclase. These data suggest that the source of the sandstones and conglomerates was primarily the Andean magmatic arc, located west of the Neuquén Basin. The clay mineral assemblage is interpreted as the result of a complex set of factors, including source rock, climate, transport, and diagenesis. Postdepositional processes produced significant variations in the original compositions, especially the fine-grained deposits. The Tordillo sediments are characterised by moderate SiO₂ contents, variable abundances of K₂O and Na₂O, and a relatively high proportion of ferromagnesian elements. The degree of chemical weathering in the source area, expressed as the chemical index of alteration, is low to moderate. The major element geochemistry and Th/Sc, K/Rb, Co/Th, La/Sc, and Cr/Th values point to a significant input of detrital volcanic material of calcalkaline felsic and intermediate composition. However, major element geochemistry is not useful for interpreting the tectonic setting. Discrimination plots based on immobile trace elements, such as Ti, Zr, La, Sc, and Th, show that most data lie in the active continental margin field. Geochemical information is not sufficiently sensitive to differentiate the two different source areas recognized by petrographic and modal analyses of conglomerates and sandstones.     

The energy balance experiment EBEX-2000. Part II: Intercomparison of eddy-covariance sensors and post-field data processing methods

The eddy-covariance method is the primary way of measuring turbulent fluxes directly. Many investigators have found that these flux measurements often do not satisfy a fundamental criterion—closure of the surface energy balance. This study investigates to what extent the eddy-covariance measurement technology can be made responsible for this deficiency, in particular the effects of instrumentation or of the post-field data processing. Therefore, current eddy-covariance sensors and several post-field data processing methods were compared. The differences in methodology resulted in deviations of 10% for the sensible heat flux and of 15% for the latent heat flux for an averaging time of 30 min. These disparities were mostly due to different sensor separation corrections and a linear detrending of the data. The impact of different instrumentation on the resulting heat flux estimates was significantly higher. Large deviations from the reference system of up to 50% were found for some sensor combinations. However, very good measurement quality was found for a CSAT3 sonic together with a KH20 krypton hygrometer and also for a UW sonic together with a KH20. If these systems are well calibrated and maintained, an accuracy of better than 5% can be achieved for 30-min values of sensible and latent heat flux measurements. The results from the sonic anemometers Gill Solent-HS, ATI-K, Metek USA-1, and R.M. Young 81000 showed more or less larger deviations from the reference system. The LI-COR LI-7500 open-path H₂O/CO₂ gas analyser in the test was one of the first serial numbers of this sensor type and had technical problems regarding direct solar radiation sensitivity and signal delay. These problems are known by the manufacturer and improvements of the sensor have since been made. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is supported by the National Science Foundation.     

Nonextensive Statistical Mechanics: Some Links with Astronomical Phenomena

A variety of astronomical phenomena appear to not satisfy the ergodic hypothesis in the relevant stationary state, if any. As such, there is no reason for expecting the applicability of Boltzmann–Gibbs (BG) statistical mechanics. Some of these phenomena appear to follow, instead, nonextensive statistical mechanics. In the same manner that the BG formalism is based on the entropy S _BG=?k∑ _i p _i ln p _i, the nonextensive one is based on the form S _q=k(1 ?∑ _i p _i ^q)/(q? 1) (with S ₁=S _BG). The stationary states of the former are characterized by an exponential dependence on the energy, whereas those of the latter are characterized by an (asymptotic) power law. A brief review of this theory is given here, as well as of some of its applications, such as the solar neutrino problem, polytropic self-gravitating systems, galactic peculiar velocities, cosmic rays and some cosmological aspects. In addition to these, an analogy with the Keplerian elliptic orbits versus the Ptolemaic epicycles is developed, where we show that optimizing S _q with a few constraints is equivalent to optimizing S _BG with an infinite number of constraints.