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171.
Short‐term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) can be achieved from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models or radar nowcasting, that is the extrapolation of the precipitation at a future time from consecutive radar scans. Hybrid forecasts obtained by merging rainfall forecasts from radar nowcasting and NWP models are potentially more skilful than either radar nowcasts or NWP rainfall forecasts alone. This paper provides an assessment of deterministic and probabilistic high‐resolution QPFs achieved by implementing the Short‐term Ensemble Prediction System developed by the UK Met Office. Both radar nowcasts and hybrid forecasts have been performed. The results show that the performance of both deterministic nowcasts and deterministic hybrid forecasts decreases with increasing rainfall intensity and spatial resolution. The results also show that the blending with the NWP forecasts improves the performance of the forecasting system. Probabilistic hybrid forecasts have been obtained through the modelling of a stochastic noise component to produce a number of equally likely ensemble members, and the comparative assessment of deterministic and probabilistic hybrid forecasts shows that the probabilistic forecasting system is characterised by a higher discrimination accuracy than the deterministic one. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
172.
Celia Ojeda-Martínez Francisca Giménez Casalduero Just T. Bayle-Sempere Carmen Barbera Cebrián Carlos Valle Jose Luis Sanchez-Lizaso Aitor Forcada Pablo Sanchez-Jerez Pablo Martín-Sosa Jesús M. Falcón Fuensanta Salas Mariagrazia Graziano Renato Chemello Ben Stobart Pedro Cartagena Angel Pérez-Ruzafa Fréderic Vandeperre Elisabeth Rochel Serge Planes Alberto Brito 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2009,52(2):89-101
A general conceptual framework for the management of marine protected areas (MPAs) was developed. The driver-pressure-state-impacts-response (DPSIR) framework was used to determine the elements affecting MPAs. The developed evaluation framework helped to select an appropriate suite of indicators to support an ecosystem approach, an assessment of the MPAs functioning and policy decisions. Gaps derived from the management and policy responses in the MPAs were also outlined. It was concluded that the DPSIR framework can help to simplify the complexity of MPA management. This document is a tool for policy makers, scientists and general public on the relevance of indicators to monitor changes and MPAs management. 相似文献
173.
Changes in the composition of planktonic ostracod populations across a range of latitudes in the North-east Atlantic 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
A large database representing the bathymetric distribution of 117 species of halocyprid ostracods has been compiled from seven stations forming a transect from the equator to 60°N along 20°W, plus an additional station at 32°N, 65°W. This data base is analysed to examine the latitudinal and bathymetric changes in species composition and diversity of assemblages of this important, yet neglected, holoplanktonic group. At each station stratified sampling of the complete water column from the surface down mostly to 2000 m was carried out both day and night. Each sample resulted from the filtration of at least 2500 m3 of water and was analysed using a consistent protocol. The differences between the day and night profiles are attributable to diel vertical migrations, to local-scale heterogeneity, and possibly to a degree of net avoidance. There is a gradient of increasing species richness and diversity from high to low latitudes. By day, halocyprids are either infrequent or absent from the upper 50 m of the water column, but at night after diel vertical migration they become quite abundant in the epipelagic zone, particularly at low latitudes. Bathymetric profiles show ostracod abundances increase rapidly below the thermocline, reaching maxima at 200-400 m and then declining by at least an order of magnitude at 2000 m. Diversity (both species richness, H′ and evenness, J) also increases below the thermocline and thereafter is either maintained or declines only slightly to 2000 m. There are no relationships among diversity, abundance and productivity, but analysis of the whole database shows that the changes in community structure are consistent with Longhurst’s [Longhurst, A.R., 1998. Ecological Geography of the Sea. Academic Press, San Diego, pp. xiv, 398.] biogeochemical provinces. 相似文献
174.
The compression of synthetic braunite, Mn2+Mn3+ 6O8SiO4, was studied by high-pressure single-crystal X-ray diffraction carried out in a diamond-anvil cell. The equation of state at room temperature (third-order Birch-Murnaghan equation of state: V 0=1661.15(8) Å3, K 0,298=180.7±0.9 GPa, K′=6.5±0.3) was determined from unit-cell volume data to 9.18 GPa. Crystal structures were determined at 6 different pressures to 7.69 GPa. Compression of the structure (space group I41/acd) was found to be slightly anisotropic (a 0=9.4262(4) Å, K a =499±4 GPa, K a ′=19.7±0.9; c 0=18.6964(6) Å, K c =657±6 GPa, K c ′=15.7±1.4) which can be attributed to the fact that the Mn3+-O bonds, which are the most compressible bonds, are aligned closer to the (001) plane than to the c axis. The large bulk modulus is the result of the structural topology in which 2/3 and 1/2 of the edges of the Mn2+O8 and Mn3+O6 polyhedra share edges with other polyhedra. The Mn2+O8 polyhedra were found to compress isotropically, whereas anisotropic compressional behaviour was observed for all three Mn3+O6 octahedra. Although the polyhedral geometry of all three crystallographically independent Mn3+ sites shows the same type of uniaxially elongated distortion, the compression of the individual octahedral configurations was found to be strongly dependent upon both the geometry of the polyhedron itself and the types of, and the connectivity to, the neighbouring polyhedra. The differences in the configuration of the different oxygen atoms, and therefore the structural topology, is one of the major factors determining the type and degree of the pressure-induced distortion, while the Jahn-Teller effect plays a subordinate role. 相似文献
175.
176.
It is shown that the autocorrelation function of a telescope diffraction-limited image is closely approximated by a subtraction of the mean cross correlation of pairs of speckle photographs from the mean autocorrelation of the same set of data. This fact is used to derive the angular diameter of the asteroid Vesta from a series of speckle interferometry data. The resultant apparent angular diameter of 0″.40 ± 0″.04 corresponds to an absolute diameter of 513 ± 51 km. 相似文献
177.
Evaluation of the MODFLOW-2005 Conduit Flow Process 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The recent development of the Conduit Flow Process (CFP) by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides hydrogeologic modelers with a new tool that incorporates the non-Darcian, multiporosity components of flow characteristic of karst aquifers. CFP introduces new parameters extending beyond those of traditional Darcian groundwater flow codes. We characterize a karst aquifer to collect data useful for evaluating this new tool at a test site in west-central Florida, where the spatial distribution and cross-sectional area of the conduit network are available. Specifically, we characterize: (1) the potential for Darcian/non-Darcian flow using estimates of specific discharge vs. observed hydraulic gradients, and (2) the temporal variation for the direction and magnitude of fluid exchange between the matrix and conduit network during extreme hydrologic events. We evaluate the performance of CFP Mode 1 using a site-scale dual-porosity model and compare its performance with a comparable laminar equivalent continuum model (ECM) using MODFLOW-2005. Based on our preliminary analyses, hydraulic conductivity coupled with conduit wall conductance improved the match between observed and simulated discharges by 12% to 40% over turbulent flow alone (less than 1%). 相似文献
178.
Thilo Arlt Martin Kunz Jano Stolz Thomas Armbruster Ross J. Angel 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2000,138(1):35-45
The P21/c clinopyroxene kanoite (ideally MnMgSi2O6) was studied as a function of pressure and temperature using powder X-ray diffraction, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and optical methods. The temperature of the P21/c to high-temperature (HT) C2/c transition ranges from 425?°C in endmember MnMgSi2O6 to 125?°C in natural samples with an aegirine component. Compiling pigeonite and clinoenstatite–clinoferrosilite literature data, the temperature of the transformation was found to decrease linearly with M2 cation size. A synchrotron powder diffraction study in a heated diamond-anvil cell (DAC) yielded compression and thermal expansion data for low kanoite of composition Mn1.2Mg0.4Fe0.4Si2O6. The high-pressure (HP) phase transition from P21/c to HPC2/c was reversed at 5.8 GPa at 417?°C. The high-temperature phase transition from P21/c to HTC2/c was rather indistinct and occurred at approximately 530?°C and 0.76 GPa. In a separate experiment, the HT transition was observed optically in a hydrothermal DAC between 0.0 and 0.4 GPa. The in-situP-T data of both experiments yielded an increase in transition temperature with increasing pressure (approx. 149?°C/GPa) and suggest a change in character of the transition from first order to continuous with increasing pressure. The data indicate that the HTC2/c and HPC2/c polymorphs are distinct phases with different stability fields. Since the high-temperature and the high-pressure polymorphs of kanoite were shown to be isotypic with other low-Ca clinopyroxenes such as the (Mg,Fe)SiO3 series, the conclusions we draw from this study are valid for all clinopyroxenes with small (<0.88 Å) M1 and M2 cation sizes. The petrologic implications of these conclusions for the occurrence of “clinoenstatite” in the Alpe Arami peridotite are discussed. 相似文献
179.
The phase relations in the Fe2SiO4–Fe3O4 binary system have been determined between 900 and 1200 °C and from 2.0 to 9.0 GPa. At low to moderate pressures magnetite
can accommodate significant Si, reaching XFe2SiO4=0.1 and 0.2 at 3.0 and 5.0 GPa respectively, with temperature having only a secondary influence. At pressures below 3.5 GPa
at 900 °C and 2.6 GPa at 1100 °C magnetite-rich spinel coexists with pure fayalite. This assemblage becomes unstable at higher
pressures with respect to three intermediate phases that are spinelloid polytypes isostructural to spinelloids II, III and
V in the Ni-aluminosilicate system. The phase relations between the spinelloid phases are complex. At pressures above ≈8.0 GPa
at 1100 °C, the spinelloid phases give way to a complete spinel solid solution between Fe3O4 and Fe2SiO4. The presence of small amounts of Fe3+ stabilises the spinel structure to lower pressures compared to the Fe2SiO4 end member. This means that the fayalite–γ-spinel transition is generally unsuitable as a pressure calibration point for
experimental apparatuses. The molar volumes of the spinel solid solutions vary nearly linearly with composition, having a
small negative deviation from ideal behaviour described by Wv=−0.15(6) cm3. Extrapolation yields V°(298) = 41.981(14) cm3 for the Fe2SiO4-spinel end member. The cell parameters and molar volumes of the three spinelloid polytypes vary systematically with composition.
Cation disorder is an important factor in stabilising the spinelloid polytypes. Each polytype exhibits a particular solid
solution range that is directly influenced by the interplay between its structure and the cation distributions that are energetically
favourable. In the FeO–FeO1.5–SiO2 ternary system Fe7SiO10 (“iscorite”) coexists with the spinelloid phases at intermediate pressures on the SiO2-poor, or Fe3+-poor side of the Fe2SiO4–Fe3O4 join. On the SiO2 and Fe3+-rich side of the join, orthopyroxene or high-P clinopyroxene coexists with the spinelloids and spinel solid solutions. The
assemblage pyroxene+spinel+SiO2 is stable over a wide range of bulk composition. The stability of spinelloid III is of particular petrologic interest since
this phase has the same structure as (Mg,Fe)2SiO4–wadsleyite, indicating that Fe3+ can be easily incorporated in this important phase in the Earth's transition zone, in addition to silicate spinel. This has
important implications for the redox state of the Earth's transition zone and for the depth at which the olivine to spinel
transition occurs in the mantle, potentially leading to a shift in the “410 km” seismic discontinuity to shallower depths
depending on the prevailing redox state. In addition, a coupled tetrahedral substitution of Fe3++OH for Si+O could provide a further mechanism for the incorporation of H2O in wadsleyite.
Received: 10 January 2000 / Accepted: 12 May 2000 相似文献
180.
The clinopyroxenes spodumene (LiAlSi2O6), LiScSi2O6 and ZnSiO3, all with space group C2/c at ambient conditions, were studied under high pressures by single-crystal X-ray diffraction in a diamond-anvil cell. Changes
in the evolution of the unit-cell parameters, optical properties and the appearance of h + k odd reflections characteristic of a primitive lattice, indicate that all three pyroxenes undergo phase transitions. The transitions
are mostly displacive in character, and are non-quenchable. Transition pressures are 3.19 GPa in spodumene, ∼0.6 GPa in LiScSi2O6 and 1.92 GPa in ZnSiO3. The space group of all three high-pressure phases was determined to be P21/c by structure refinement to single-crystal X-ray intensity data collected in the DAC. In the ZnSiO3 clinopyroxene the intermediate P21/c phase further transforms to a second C2/c phase (HP-C2/c) at 4.9 GPa (confirmed by structure refinement). The volume change at this transition is about 2.6%, three times larger than
in the first phase transition, and typical of the P21/c→ HP-C2/c phase transitions found previously in MgSiO3, FeSiO3, etc. These results therefore provide the first direct evidence that the HP-C2/c and the HT-C2/c structures of pyroxenes are distinct polymorphs with the same space group. The phase transition from C2/c to P21/c symmetry in spodumene and LiScSi2O6 therefore occurs because the polymorphs stable at ambient conditions are isotypic to the high-temperature C2/c phases of clinopyroxenes such as pigeonite and clinoenstatite.
Received: 22 December 1999 / Accepted: 7 June 2000 相似文献