A two degree-of-freedom earthquake model with static/dynamic friction

Can a simple multi-block-spring model with total symmetry make interesting predictions for fault behaviour? Our model consists of a symmetric, slowly driven, two degree-of-freedom block-spring system with static/dynamic friction. The simple friction law and slow driving rate allow the state of this fourth order system to be described between slip events by a single variable, the difference in the stretch of the driving springs. This stretch difference measures the locked-in stress and is closely related to fault stress inhomogeneity. In general,smoothing is not observed. A spatially homogeneous stress state is found to almost always be unstable, in that the system tends toward an inhomogeneous state after many slip events. The system evolves either to a cycle that alternates between two types of earthquakes, or to a cycle with repeating but identical asymmetric earthquakes. One type of alternating earthquake solution is structurally unstable, which implies a great sensitivity to model perturbations. For this simple model, spatial asymmetry necessarily occurs, despite the symmetry in the model, thus suggesting that spatial structure in seismicity patterns may be a consequence of earthquake dynamics, not just fault heterogeneity.     

Speleothem and glacier records of latest Pleistocene–early Holocene climate change in the western North American interior

Rapid and high-magnitude North Atlantic climate oscillations following the Last Glacial Maximum have been correlated to climate change events in western North America. However, the strength of teleconnections between the North Atlantic and the interior of western North America remains poorly understood. We present a U-series calibrated speleothem record from Timpanogos Cave National Monument, located at 2040 m asl in the Wasatch Mountains of Utah, spanning 13.5–10.6 ka. Additionally, we carried out a climate reconstruction for a coeval glacier advance in the Wind River Range of Wyoming. Our results indicate that between 13.5 and 12.8 ka, the Wasatch was probably first cool and dry and then warmed. After 12.8 ka, our record suggests cool and/or wetter conditions followed by reduced moisture until 11.8 ka, followed by an early Holocene wet period. The Timpanogos record exhibits few similarities with those from the North Atlantic. Climate reconstructions of the Titcomb Basin glacier suggest modest temperature depressions relative to modern (<−3 °C) were necessary to sustain the glacier with a moderate increase in precipitation (>150%). The high-altitude speleothem record presented here provides a valuable basis for understanding latest Pleistocene–early Holocene glacial episodes in western North America.     

A fission-track and (U–Th)/He thermochronometric study of the northern margin of the South China Sea: An example of a complex passive margin

Zircon fission track (ZFT), apatite fission track (AFT) and (U–Th)/He thermochronometric data are used to reconstruct the Cenozoic exhumation history of the South China continental margin. A south to north sample transect from coast to continental interior yielded ZFT ages between 116.6 ± 4.7 Ma and 87.3 ± 4.0, indicating that by the Late Cretaceous samples were at depths of 5–6 km in the upper crust. Apatite FT ages range between 60.9 ± 3.6 and 37.3 ± 2.3 Ma with mean track lengths between 13.26 ± 0.16 µm and 13.95 ± 0.19 µm whilst AHe ages are marginally younger 47.5 ± 1.9–15.3 ± 0.5 Ma. These results show the sampled rocks resided in the top 1–1.5 km of the crust for most of the Cenozoic. Thermal history modeling of the combined FT and (U–Th)/He datasets reveal a common three stage cooling history which differed systematically in timing inland away from the rifted margin. 1) Initial phase of rapid cooling that youngs to the north, 2) a period of relative (but not perfect) thermal stasis at ~ 70–60 °C which increases in duration from the south to the north; 3) final-stage cooling to surface temperatures that initiated in all samples between 15 and 10 Ma. The timing and pattern of rock uplift and erosion does not fit with conventional passive margin landscape models that require youngest exhumation ages to be concentrated at or close to the rifted margin. The history of South China margin is more complex aided by weakened crust from the active margin period that immediately preceded rifting and opening of the South China Sea. This rheological inheritance created a transition zone of steeply thinned crust that served as a flexural filter disconnecting the northern margin of the South China block and site of active rifting to the south. Consequently whilst the South China margin displays many features of a rifted continental margin its exhumation history does not conform to conventional images of a passive margin.     

Modeling outflow from the Ernest Henry Fe oxide Cu–Au deposit: implications for ore genesis and exploration

The Ernest Henry Fe oxide Cu–Au (IOCG) deposit (>ca. 1.51 Ga) is hosted by breccia produced during the waning stages of an evolving hydrothermal system that formed a number of tens of metres to a kilometre scale, pre- and syn-ore alteration halos, although no demonstrable patterns have been attributed to fluids expelled through the outflow zones. However, the recognition of a population of hypersaline fluid inclusions representing the ‘spent’ fluids after Cu–Au deposition at Ernest Henry provides the basis to model the geochemical characteristics of the deposit's outflow zones. Geochemical modeling at 300 °C was undertaken at both high and low fluid/rock ratios via FLUSH models involving three host rock types: (1) granite, (2) calc–silicate rock, and (3) graphitic schist. In models run at high fluid/rock ratios, all rock types are essentially fluid-buffered, and produce an albite–quartz–hematite–barite-rich assemblage, although in low fluid–rock environments, the pH, redox, and geochemical character of the host rock exerts a greater influence on the mineralogy of the alteration assemblages (e.g., andradite, Fe–chlorite, and magnetite). Significant sulphide mineralization was predicted in graphitic schist where sphalerite occurred in both low- and high-porosity models, which indicates the possibility of an association between high-temperature IOCG mineralization and lower temperature base metal mineralization.Cooling experiments (from 300 to 100 °C) using the ‘spent fluids’ predict early high-T (300–200 °C) Na-, Ca-, Fe-, and Mn-rich, magnetite-bearing hydrothermal associations, whereas with cooling to below 200 °C, and with progressive fluid–rock interaction, the system produces rhodochrosite-bearing, hematite–quartz–muscovite–barite-rich assemblages. These results show that the radical geochemical and mineralogical changes associated with cooling and progressive fluid influx are likely to be accompanied by major transformations in the geophysical expression (e.g., spectral and magnetic character) of the alteration in the outflow zone, and highlight the potential link between magnetite- and hematite-bearing IOCG hydrothermal systems.     

AXIOM: advanced X-ray imaging of the magnetosphere

Planetary plasma and magnetic field environments can be studied in two complementary ways—by in situ measurements, or by remote sensing. While the former provide precise information about plasma behaviour, instabilities and dynamics on local scales, the latter offers the global view necessary to understand the overall interaction of the magnetospheric plasma with the solar wind. Some parts of the Earth’s magnetosphere have been remotely sensed, but the majority remains unexplored by this type of measurements. Here we propose a novel and more elegant approach employing remote X-ray imaging techniques, which are now possible thanks to the relatively recent discovery of solar wind charge exchange X-ray emissions in the vicinity of the Earth’s magnetosphere. In this article we describe how an appropriately designed and located X-ray telescope, supported by simultaneous in situ measurements of the solar wind, can be used to image the dayside magnetosphere, magnetosheath and bow shock, with a temporal and spatial resolution sufficient to address several key outstanding questions concerning how the solar wind interacts with the Earth’s magnetosphere on a global level. Global images of the dayside magnetospheric boundaries require vantage points well outside the magnetosphere. Our studies have led us to propose ‘AXIOM: Advanced X-ray Imaging of the Magnetosphere’, a concept mission using a Vega launcher with a LISA Pathfinder-type Propulsion Module to place the spacecraft in a Lissajous orbit around the Earth–Moon L1 point. The model payload consists of an X-ray Wide Field Imager, capable of both imaging and spectroscopy, and an in situ plasma and magnetic field measurement package. This package comprises a Proton-Alpha Sensor, designed to measure the bulk properties of the solar wind, an Ion Composition Analyser, to characterise the minor ion populations in the solar wind that cause charge exchange emission, and a Magnetometer, designed to measure the strength and direction of the solar wind magnetic field. We also show simulations that demonstrate how the proposed X-ray telescope design is capable of imaging the predicted emission from the dayside magnetosphere with the sensitivity and cadence required to achieve the science goals of the mission.     

Late Pleistocene–Holocene river dynamics at the Trent‐Soar confluence,England, UK

Although river confluences have received geomorphic attention in recent years it is difficult to upscale these studies, so confluence‐dominated reaches are commonly presumed to be either: (1) braided; or (2) meandering and characterized by laterally migrating channels. If the geomorphology of a confluence zone is to be considered over longer timescales, changes in river style need to be taken into account. This paper uses a combination of remote sensing techniques (LiDAR, GPR, ER), borehole survey and chronometric dating to test this differentiation in the confluence‐zone of a medium‐sized, mixed‐load, temperate river system (Trent, UK), which on the basis of planform evidence appears to conform to the meandering model. However, the analysis of ‘confluence sediment body stratigraphy’ demonstrates that the confluence does not correspond with a simple meander migration model and chronostratigraphic data suggests it has undergone two major transformations. Firstly, from a high‐energy braid‐plain confluence in the Lateglacial (25–13 K yrs cal BP), to a lower‐energy braided confluence in the early to middle Holocene (early Holocene‐2.4 kyr BP), which created a compound terrace. Second, incision into this terrace, creating a single‐channel confluence (2.4–0.5 kyr cal BP) with a high sinuosity south bank tributary (the River Soar). The confluence sediment‐body stratigraphy is characterized by a basal suite of Late Pleistocene gravels bisected by younger channel fills, which grade into the intervening levee and overbank sediments. The best explanation for the confluence sediment body stratigraphy encountered is that frequent switching (soft‐avulsions sensu Edmonds et al., 2011) of the tributary are responsible for the downstream movement of the channel confluence (at an average rate of approximately 0.5 m per year) dissecting and reworking older braid‐plain sediments. The late Holocene evolution of the confluence can be seen as a variant of the incisional‐frequent channel reorganization (avulsion) model with sequential downstream migration of the reattachment point. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lateglacial to early Holocene multiproxy record from Loch Assynt,NW Scotland

A core, recovered from a water depth of 53 m in Loch Assynt, North-West Scotland, has yielded a 9 m sequence comprising two distinct units, an upper, organic-rich unit (Unit I, ca. 6 m) overlying a sequence of laminated clays, silts and sands (Unit II, ca. 3 m). The upper unit is essentially Holocene in age based upon three bulk AMS radiocarbon dates while a fourth radiocarbon date from Unit II confirms a late-glacial age for that interval and supports a broadly linear age–depth relationship. Distinct variations in the magnetic susceptibility record of the lower unit can be visually correlated to major changes in the Greenland ice core (GISP2), this together with pollen evidence supports the radiocarbon dating suggesting an age of approximately 11,000 to around 17,000 cal. BP for Unit II, with evidence for the Younger Dryas (Loch Lomond) stadial and the Bolling–Allerød climatic phases. Variations in the magnetic susceptibility record of the late-glacial sediments are thought to relate to climatically driven changes in soil cover and erosion rates. The multiproxy record from Loch Assynt indicates relatively continuous, sub-aqueous sedimentation during the last ～17,000 years, providing an approximate age for the initiation of modern Loch Assynt and supporting recent dates of moraine retreat lines in the Loanan Valley from about 14–15 ka BP. Pollen and chironomid sampling provides further insights to the history of this relatively deep water body and compliment existing high-resolution palaeo-precipitation records for the mid to late Holocene interval from speleothem archives within the loch catchment.     

The impact of natural and anthropogenic forcings on climate and hydrology since 1550

A climate simulation of an ocean/atmosphere general circulation model driven with natural forcings alone (constant “pre-industrial” land-cover and well-mixed greenhouse gases, changing orbital, solar and volcanic forcing) has been carried out from 1492 to 2000. Another simulation driven with natural and anthropogenic forcings (changes in greenhouse gases, ozone, the direct and first indirect effect of anthropogenic sulphate aerosol and land-cover) from 1750 to 2000 has also been carried out. These simulations suggest that since 1550, in the absence of anthropogenic forcings, climate would have warmed by about 0.1 K. Simulated response is not in equilibrium with the external forcings suggesting that both climate sensitivity and the rate at which the ocean takes up heat determine the magnitude of the response to forcings since 1550. In the simulation with natural forcings climate sensitivity is similar to other simulations of HadCM3 driven with CO₂ alone. Climate sensitivity increases when anthropogenic forcings are included. The natural forcing used in our experiment increases decadal–centennial time-scale and large spatial scale climate variability, relative to internal variability, as diagnosed from a control simulation. Mean conditions in the natural simulation are cooler than in our control simulation reflecting the reduction in forcing. However, over certain regions there is significant warming, relative to control, due to an increase in forest cover. Comparing the simulation driven by anthropogenic and natural forcings with the natural-only simulation suggests that anthropogenic forcings have had a significant impact on, particularly tropical, climate since the early nineteenth century. Thus the entire instrumental temperature record may be “contaminated” by anthropogenic influences. Both the hydrological cycle and cryosphere are also affected by anthropogenic forcings. Changes in tree-cover appear to be responsible for some of the local and hydrological changes as well as an increase in northern hemisphere spring snow cover.

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