The impact of natural and anthropogenic forcings on climate and hydrology since 1550

A climate simulation of an ocean/atmosphere general circulation model driven with natural forcings alone (constant “pre-industrial” land-cover and well-mixed greenhouse gases, changing orbital, solar and volcanic forcing) has been carried out from 1492 to 2000. Another simulation driven with natural and anthropogenic forcings (changes in greenhouse gases, ozone, the direct and first indirect effect of anthropogenic sulphate aerosol and land-cover) from 1750 to 2000 has also been carried out. These simulations suggest that since 1550, in the absence of anthropogenic forcings, climate would have warmed by about 0.1 K. Simulated response is not in equilibrium with the external forcings suggesting that both climate sensitivity and the rate at which the ocean takes up heat determine the magnitude of the response to forcings since 1550. In the simulation with natural forcings climate sensitivity is similar to other simulations of HadCM3 driven with CO₂ alone. Climate sensitivity increases when anthropogenic forcings are included. The natural forcing used in our experiment increases decadal–centennial time-scale and large spatial scale climate variability, relative to internal variability, as diagnosed from a control simulation. Mean conditions in the natural simulation are cooler than in our control simulation reflecting the reduction in forcing. However, over certain regions there is significant warming, relative to control, due to an increase in forest cover. Comparing the simulation driven by anthropogenic and natural forcings with the natural-only simulation suggests that anthropogenic forcings have had a significant impact on, particularly tropical, climate since the early nineteenth century. Thus the entire instrumental temperature record may be “contaminated” by anthropogenic influences. Both the hydrological cycle and cryosphere are also affected by anthropogenic forcings. Changes in tree-cover appear to be responsible for some of the local and hydrological changes as well as an increase in northern hemisphere spring snow cover.

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Thérèse Mound: a case study of coral bank development in the Belgica Mound Province,Porcupine Seabight

High-resolution seismic profiles, swath bathymetry, side-scan sonar data and video imageries are analysed in this detailed study of five carbonate mounds from the Belgica mound province with special emphasis on the well-surveyed Thérèse Mound. The selected mounds are located in the deepest part of the Belgica mound province at water depths of 950 m. Seismic data illustrate that the underlying geology is characterised by drift sedimentation in a general northerly flowing current regime. Sigmoidal sediment bodies create local slope breaks on the most recent local erosional surface, which act as the mound base. No preferential mound substratum is observed, neither is there any indication for deep geological controls on coral bank development. Seismic evidence suggests that the start-up of the coral bank development was shortly after a major erosional event of Late Pliocene–Quaternary age. The coral bank geometry has been clearly affected by the local topography of this erosional base and the prevailing current regime. The summits of the coral banks are relatively flat and the flanks are steepest on their upper slopes. Deposition of the encased drift sequence has been influenced by the coral bank topography. Sediment waves are formed besides the coral banks and are the most pronounced bedforms. These seabed structures are probably induced by bottom current up to 1 m/s. Large sediment waves are colonised by living corals and might represent the initial phase of coral bank development. The biological facies distribution of the coral banks illustrate a living coral cap on the summit and upper slope and a decline of living coral populations toward the lower flanks. The data suggest that the development of the coral banks in this area is clearly an interaction between biological growth processes and drift deposition both influenced by the local topography and current regime.