Climate Change and the Disappearance of Malaria from England

As the world's climate continues to change there is concern that this may cause malaria to spread to new areas. Here we examine whether past changes in temperature, in addition to social changes, may have affected malaria in England. Our analysis indicates that cold summers experienced during the 1800s may have contributed to the disappearance of this disease from the country. As our summers become progressively warner it is unlikely that malaria will become firmly re-established on these shores, although the possibility of future outbreaks should not be ignored.     

Reconstructing the IRAS Point Source Catalog Redshift Survey with a generalized PIZA

We study the influence of different magnetic boundary conditions on the generation of magnetic fields by turbulent convection. It is found that the structure and strength of the generated field in the vicinity of the boundary is strongly dependent on the choice of boundary conditions. In the convective interior, however, the solutions remain largely insensitive to the boundary conditions. In all cases the overall efficiency of the dynamo process remains high with a steady state magnetic energy density between 12 and 25 per cent of the turbulent kinetic energy, and peak field values exceeding the equipartition level. These results support the idea that the solar granulation may constitute a dynamo source for magnetic fields in the quiet photosphere.     

Funding low carbon cities: local perspectives on opportunities and risks

There are compelling reasons for policy makers to be interested in the low-carbon agenda. More than half of the world's population lives in, and more than half of the world's economic output comes from, cities. Up to 70% of global carbon emissions can also be attributed to consumption that takes place in cities. Recent research has shown that cost-effective investments in low-carbon options could deliver a 40% reduction in GHG emissions from cities by 2020, while also providing wider economic benefits such as enhanced competitiveness and increased employment. As yet, however, investments in low-carbon cities have not been made at scale due mainly to the scale of the finance required, local government budgetary constraints, and perceptions about their costs and benefits. With a focus on the UK, a contemporary account is provided of what local authorities see as the major financial risks associated with funding low-carbon cities. Practical proposals – which also have more general relevance to the future financing of low-carbon cities around the world – are offered on how local authorities, in conjunction with central government, the private sector, and institutional investors, can effectively manage these risks.

Policy relevance

Cities house more than half of the world's population, generate more than half of the world's economic output, and produce between 40% and 70% of all anthropogenic GHG emissions. In the UK, 70% of such emissions are under the influence of its local authorities. Thus, one of the key public policy challenges for the low-carbon transition is how it should be financed. There are several obstacles and related risks to this transition, including financial and legal obstacles and the differing views and perceptions of stakeholders. These can be attenuated, somewhat, by national government support at scale, local authority leadership, and cooperation between other authorities and the private sector, and the development of tools and guidance to reduce transaction costs.     

A new approach for measuring surface hydrological connectivity

The development of surface hydrological connectivity is a key determinant of flood magnitude in drylands. Thresholds in runoff response may be reached when isolated runoff-generating areas connect with each other to form continuous links to river channels, enabling these areas to contribute to flood hydrographs. Such threshold behaviour explains observed nonlinearities and scale dependencies of dryland rainfall–runoff relationships and complicates attempts at flood prediction. However, field methods for measuring the propensity of a surface to transmit water downslope are lacking, and conventional techniques of infiltration measurement are often inappropriate for use on non-agricultural drylands. Here, we argue for a reconceptualization of the dryland surface runoff process, suggesting that the downslope transfer of water should be considered alongside surface infiltration; that is, there is a need for the “aggregated” measurement of infiltration and overland flow hydraulics. Surface application of a set volume of water at a standardized rate generates runoff that travels downslope; the distance it travels downslope is determined by infiltration along the flow, integration of flow paths, and flow resistance. We demonstrate the potential of such a combined measurement system coupled with structure-from-motion photogrammetry to identify surface controls on runoff generation and transfer on dryland hillslopes, with vegetation, slope, surface stone cover, and surface roughness all having a significant effect. The measurement system has been used on slopes up to 37° compared with the flat surface typically required for infiltration methods. On average, the field workflow takes ~10–15 min, considerably quicker than rainfall simulation. A wider variety of surfaces can be sampled with relative ease, as the method is not restricted to stone and vegetation-free land. We argue that this aggregated measurement represents surface connectivity and dryland runoff response better than standard hydrological approaches and can be applied on a much greater variety of dryland surfaces.     

Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios

The parallel scenario process enables characterization of climate-related risks and response options to climate change under different socio-economic futures and development prospects. The process is based on representative concentration pathways, shared socio-economic pathways, and shared policy assumptions. Although this scenario architecture is a powerful tool for evaluating the intersection of climate and society at the regional and global level, more specific context is needed to explore and understand risks, drivers, and enablers of change at the national and local level. We discuss the need for a stronger recognition of such national-scale characteristics to make climate change scenarios more relevant at the national and local scale, and propose ways to enrich the scenario architecture with locally relevant details that enhance salience, legitimacy, and credibility for stakeholders. Dynamic adaptive pathways are introduced as useful tools to draw out which elements of a potentially infinite scenario space connect with decision-relevant aspects of particular climate-related and non-climate-related risks and response options. Reviewing adaptation pathways for New Zealand case studies, we demonstrate how this approach could bring the global-scale scenario architecture within reach of local-scale decision-making. Such a process would enhance the utility of scenarios for mapping climate-related risks and adaptation options at the local scale, involving appropriate stakeholder involvement.     

Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

A gap between the potential and practical realisation of adaptation exists: adaptation strategies need to be both climate-informed and locally relevant to be viable. Place-based approaches study local and contemporary dynamics of the agricultural system, whereas climate impact modelling simulates climate-crop interactions across temporal and spatial scales. Crop-climate modelling and place-based research on adaptation were strategically reviewed and analysed to identify areas of commonality, differences, and potential learning opportunities to enhance the relevance of both disciplines through interdisciplinary approaches. Crop-modelling studies have projected a 7–15% mean yield change with adaptation compared to a non-adaptation baseline (Nature Climate Change 4:1–5, 2014). Of the 17 types of adaptation strategy identified in this study as place-based adaptations occurring within Central America, only five were represented in crop-climate modelling literature, and these were as follows: fertiliser, irrigation, change in planting date, change in cultivar and area cultivated. The breath and agency of real-life adaptation compared to its representation in modelling studies is a source of error in climate impact simulations. Conversely, adaptation research that omits assessment of future climate variability and impact does not enable to provide sustainable adaptation strategies to local communities so risk maladaptation. Integrated and participatory methods can identify and reduce these sources of uncertainty, for example, stakeholder’s engagement can identify locally relevant adaptation pathways. We propose a research agenda that uses methodological approaches from both the modelling and place-based approaches to work towards climate-informed locally relevant adaptation.     

Detection of mRNA sequences homologous to the human glutathione peroxidase and rat cytochrome P-450IVA1 genes in Mytilus edulis

In this study we have used cloned gene probes for human glutathione peroxidase (GPX), rat cytochrome P-450IVA1 and rat cytochrome P-450IIE1 to detect homologous sequences in RNA from the hepato-pancreas of Mytilus edulis. The presence of sequences hybridising to the GPX and P-450IVA1 probes, but not to the P-450IIE1 probe, confirms the ancient origin of the former genes and indicates that conserved-sequence DNA probes from higher organisms can be used to examine the structure and function of genes of environmental interest in marine organisms.     

Retrospective analysis: bile hydrocarbons and histopathology of demersal rockfish in Prince William Sound,Alaska, after the Exxon Valdez oil spill

Demersal rockfish are the only fish species that have been found dead in significant numbers after major oil spills, but the link between oil exposure and effect has not been well established. After the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, several species of rockfish (Sebastes spp.) from oiled and reference sites were analyzed for hydrocarbon metabolites in bile (1989-1991) and for microscopic lesions (1990 and 1991). Biliary hydrocarbons consistent with exposure to Exxon Valdez oil were elevated in 1989, but not in 1990 or 1991. Significant microscopic findings included pigmented macrophage aggregates and hepatic megalocytosis, fibrosis, and lipid accumulation. Site differences in microscopic findings were significant with respect to previous oil exposure in 1991 (P=0.038), but not in 1990. However, differences in microscopic findings were highly significant with respect to age and species in both years (P<0.001). We conclude that demersal rockfish were exposed to Exxon Valdez oil in 1989, but differences in microscopic changes in 1990 and 1991 were related more to age and species differences than to previous oil exposure.     

A Middle Devensian woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis) from Whitemoor Haye Quarry,Staffordshire (UK): palaeoenvironmental context and significance

This paper reports the discovery of a rare partial skeleton of a woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis Blumenbach, 1799) and associated fauna from a low Pleistocene terrace of the River Tame at Whitemoor Haye, Staffordshire, UK. A study of the sedimentary deposits around the rhino skeleton and associated organic‐rich clasts containing pollen, plant and arthropod remains suggests that the animal was rapidly buried on a braided river floodplain surrounded by a predominantly treeless, herb‐rich grassland. Highlights of the study include the oldest British chironomid record published to date and novel analysis of the palaeoflow regime using caddisfly remains. For the first time, comparative calculations of coleopteran and chironomid palaeotemperatures have been made on the same samples, suggesting a mean July temperature of 8–11 °C and a mean December temperature of between ?22 and ?16 °C. Radiocarbon age estimates on skeletal material, supported by optically stimulated luminescence ages from surrounding sediments, indicate that the rhino lived around 41–43 k cal a BP. The combined geochronological, stratigraphic and palaeoenvironmental evidence places the assemblage firmly within the Middle Devensian (Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 3). This would agree with other regional evidence for the timing of aggradation for the lowest terrace of the Trent and its tributary systems. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Planning for resettlement: building partnerships for,by, and with Indigenous peoples

Efforts in the United States to plan or implement relocation in response to climate risks have struggled to improve material conditions for participants, to incorporate local knowledge, and to keep communities intact. Mixed methodologies of community geography provide an opportunity for dialogue and knowledge-sharing to collaboratively diagnose the challenges of climate adaptation led by communities. In this article, we advance a participatory practice model for the co-creation of knowledge initiated during a two-day workshop with members from the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Tribe from Isle de Jean Charles in Louisiana, Yup’ik people from Newtok Village in Alaska, and researchers from the MIT Resilient Communities Lab. Building on prior scholarship of indigenizing climate change research, this article shares the experience of the workshop to support knowledge exchange and dialogue, with the goal of understanding how to build participatory and non-extractive community-academic partnerships. We reflect on the community values and principles used to guide this workshop to inform more inclusive and co-produced research partnerships, and pedagogies that can improve and assist the self-determination of groups impacted by climate change. Workshop presentations and discussions highlight interconnected themes of resources, systems & structures, regulatory imbalance, and resilience that underpin climate resettlement. We reflect on the narratives presented by members of both Indigenous tribes and NGO partners that illustrate the shortcomings of resettlement planning practices past and present as perpetuating existing inequality. In response to this structured knowledge exchange, we identify potential roles for community-academic partnerships that aim to improve the equity of existing resettlement models. We propose approaches for incorporating traditional knowledge into the pedagogy, discourse, and practice of academic planning programs.