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61.
A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment is performed for the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean
employing a combination of probability evaluation of offshore earthquake occurrence and numerical modeling of resulting tsunamis.
In our method, we extend the Kijko and Sellevoll’s (1992) probabilistic analysis from earthquakes to tsunamis. The results suggest that the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan,
as well as Muscat, Oman are the most vulnerable areas among those studied. The probability of having tsunami waves exceeding
5 m over a 50-year period in these coasts is estimated as 17.5%. For moderate tsunamis, this probability is estimated as high
as 45%. We recommend the application of this method as a fresh approach for doing probabilistic hazard assessment for tsunamis.
Finally, we emphasize that given the lack of sufficient information on the mechanism of large earthquake generation in the
MSZ, and inadequate data on Makran’s paleo and historical earthquakes, this study can be regarded as the first generation
of PTHA for this region and more studies should be done in the future. 相似文献
62.
AbstractThe Upper Prealpine nappe of the Swiss and French Prealps consists of a composite stack of various tectonic slivers (Gets, Simme, Dranse and Sarine sub-nappes, from top to bottom). The structural superposition and stratigraphic content of the individual sub-nappes suggests a successive stacking at the South Penninic/Adriatic transition zone during the Late Cretaceous and Early Paleogene. The present paper deals with two aspects. (1) new data obtained from the Complexe de base Series of the Dranse sub-nappe which underlies the Helminthoid Sandstone Formation, and (2) the development of a geodynamic accretionary model for the Upper Prealpine nappe stacking.The Complexe de base Series reveals a succession of black shales at the base, grading upward into variegated red/green and red shales which were deposited in an abyssal plain environment starved of clastic input. It is overlain by the Helminthoid Sandstone Formation. The combined analysis of planktic and agglutinated benthic foraminifera and comparisons with other Tethyan series suggest an Albian to Campanian age of the Complexe de base succession. Tectonic transport of the abyssal plain segment into a trench environment allowed for the stratigraphic superposition by the Helminthoid sandstone sequence. The present findings combine well with the general scheme of the Upper Prealpine nappe stack and several single results on parts of the nappe stack. We take that opportunity to present a comprehensive model for the tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Upper Prealpine nappe.We suggest that Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous asymmetric (?) extension at the South Penninic-Adriatic margin created an extensional alloehthon. Later during the mid-Cretaceous, the start of convergence drove the obduction of oceanic crust on the northern margin of the extensional allochthon. The resulting ophiolitic/continental source supplied clasts to the trench basin in front (Manche turbidite series), and the backarc basin (Mocausa Formation) and abyssal plain (Perrières turbidite series) to the South. During Middle to Late Coniacian the main Adriatic margin was thrusted over the obductionrelated mixed belt and established an incipient accretionary prism containing the former trench, backarc and abyssal plain basin fill series. During this stage the Gueyraz (melange) Complex formed, which separates the trench series from the retroarc and abyssal plain formations. On top of the incipient accretionary prism a forearc basin developed hosting the Hundsrück Formation. The frontal abyssal plain formation (Complexe de base) still received few turbiditic intercalations. From Campanian time on, the forearc basin was bypassed and deposition of the Helminthoid Sandstone Formation occurred on the Complexe de base succession. During the Maastrichtian the abyssal plain and trench fill succession (Dranse nappe) was accreted to the incipient wedge, and in front of a newly active buttress, the Gurnigel trench basin was established. Another accretionary event during latest Paleocene/earliest Eocene added parts of that trench series to the base of the wedge (Sarine nappe). During the Late Eocene the accretionary wedge and remaining trench fill series (Gurnigel nappe) were thrusted en-bloc over the Middle Penninic limestone nappes and partly overtook the latter. Continued shortening of the resulting nappe pile and out-of-sequence thrusting accomplished the overriding of the Middle Penninic units over the former South Penninic Gurnigel trench series (inversion of palaeogeographic domains). 相似文献
63.
Andrzej W. Wernik Mariusz Pożoga Marcin Grzesiak Andrzej Rokicki Marek Morawski 《Acta Geophysica》2008,56(4):1129-1146
As a partial contribution to the International Polar Year, the Space Research Centre of the Polish Academy of Sciences has
installed on the Polish Polar Station, located in the region of the Hornsund Bay in southern Spitsbergen, the equipment intended
to monitor ionospheric scintillation and total electron content. We describe the equipment setup and the aims of the experiment.
As an illustration of data analysis, we present the reconstruction of irregular structure of the ionosphere from the complex
amplitude data, and the estimate of the form and drift of diffraction pattern based on the spaced receiver measurements. 相似文献
64.
Ewa Szalinska Janusz Dominik Davide A.L. Vignati Andrzej Bobrowski Boguslaw Bas 《Applied Geochemistry》2010
Water, suspended matter and sediment samples from a system heavily impacted by wastewater from numerous small tanneries (the upper Dunajec River, southern Poland) were collected to establish the annual cycle of Cr. To study possible oxidation processes the speciation of Cr and Mn concentrations were also investigated. This study showed that Cr(III and VI) temporal and spatial distributions are regulated by coupled anthropogenic (source location and emissions) and hydrologic factors (water flow and particle transport). Chromium(III) concentrations in all compartments varied seasonally as a function of the hydrological regime, production cycle in tanneries and distance from the discharge location. Cr(III) was largely associated with the particulate phase and rapidly deposited in river bed sediments. Contaminated river sediments were however flushed during flood periods to the reservoir located downstream from tanneries. During the tanning season (November to March), Chromium(III) concentrations in the water column and total Cr concentration in sediments exceeded relevant ecotoxicological guidelines only upstream from the reservoir, which trapped about 70% of the annual Cr(III) load transported by the Dunajec river. A correlation between Cr(VI)/Cr(III) ratios and Mn concentration in sediments downstream from the reservoir suggests the possibility of Cr(III) oxidation in natural conditions. 相似文献
65.
A first-order seismotectonic model was created for South Africa. This was done using four logical steps: geoscientific data
collection, characterisation, assimilation and zonation. Through the definition of subunits of concentrations of earthquake
foci and large neotectonic and structural domains, seismotectonic structures, systems and domains were created. Relatively
larger controls of seismicity exist between the Great Escarpment and the coast. In the south, this region is characterised
by large aeromagnetic anomalies and large EW trending faults. In the west, it is characterised by the NW–SE trending Wegener
stress anomaly, radial-trending dykes and earthquake clusters. In the east, it is characterised by a large neotectonic domain
where several large historical earthquakes occurred. In the centre of South Africa, several clusters of earthquake activity
are found, often related to mining activity. Further north, seismicity is related to both mining activity and neotectonic
deformation. This work contributes to the development of a seismotectonic model for South Africa by (1) bringing together,
digitally, several data sets in a common GIS platform (geology, geophysics, stress, seismicity, neotectonics, topography,
crustal and mantle structure and anisotropy), (2) understanding the significance of data sets for seismotectonic zonation
and limitations thereof and (3) obtaining a reasonable regional model for use in seismic hazard assessments. 相似文献
66.
Maciej Konacki Andrzej J. Maciejewski 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,308(1):167-179
We analyse different methods of searching for planets around neutron stars by timing observations of pulsars. To this end, we study a few interesting models describing TOA residual variations that are observed, or could be observed, and which can mimic planets. We carry out a detailed theoretical analysis of the behaviour of these methods in the situations mentioned. We show that it is very helpful to look at these phenomena as some kind of quasi-periodic variations of residuals of time of arrival of pulsar pulses. We demonstrate that such a model-independent approach leads to promising conclusions that can be useful when analysing timing observations of pulsars to find planets or to prove that observed phenomena are of planetary origin. 相似文献
67.
68.
Summary Pre-Variscan basement in southern Poland is poorly exposed and thus known mostly from subsurface data. The availability of the latter is reviewed for terrains located between the Sudetes and the East European Platform. In these terrains the following relationships have been documented: Cadomian granitoids capped by Variscan flysch, Palaeozoic platform strata, Palaeozic folded and partly thermally altered successions, and low-grade metamorphic rocks overlain by Middle Cambrian strata. In view of their interrelationships the location of the Avalonia-Baltica suture in southeastern Poland is uncertain. 相似文献
69.
This paper presents the Taylor series method for integration of differential equations describing the rotational motion of a rigid satellite. We compared the presented algorithm with other methods, and we show that it gives the most accurate results with reasonable efficiency. 相似文献
70.
Utilizing topographic models of Saturn's F-ring shepherd satellites Prometheus (S16 1980S27) and Pandora (S15 1980S26), derived by Stooke (1994), and supposing that their mass density is constant, we derived basic geometrical and dynamical characteristics of the moons. They include the volume and mass, the mean radii, the tensor of inertia, and Stokes coefficients of the harmonic expansions of external gravitational potential. The best fitting ellipsoid approximations of the topography were calculated. A simple method of determining the gravitational potential on the surface of an irregular satellite is presented. Examples of equipotential surfaces of the satellites are shown 相似文献