A Spatial Variant of the Basic Reproduction Number for the New Orleans Yellow Fever Epidemic of 1878

A spatial variant of the basic reproduction number (R₀), here defined as the number of subsequent deaths attributed to an initial mortality, can be used to identify geographic variation within an epidemic. A spatial R₀ was calculated at the neighborhood level, here defined by a 50‐m buffer surrounding an index case, for mortality data from the 1878 yellow fever epidemic of New Orleans. The highest number of secondary mortalities linked to a neighborhood index case was twelve, with a further eighty‐seven extrapolated morbidity cases. Results also highlight the importance of multideath residences and cultural contacts in neighborhood‐level disease spread.     

Three mechanisms of ore re-mobilisation during amphibolite facies metamorphism at the Montauban Zn–Pb–Au–Ag deposit

The relative importance of mechanical re-mobilisation, hydrothermal dissolution and re-precipitation, and sulphide melting in controlling redistribution of metals during concurrent metamorphism and deformation is evaluated at the middle amphibolite facies Montauban deposit in Canada. As at many other deposits, ductile deformation was important in driving mechanical re-mobilisation of massive sulphides from limb regions into hinge regions of large-scale folds and is thus the most important for controlling the economics of Pb and Zn distribution. Two possible stages of hydrothermally driven re-mobilisation are discussed, each of which produces characteristically different alteration assemblages. Prograde hydrothermal re-mobilisation is driven by pyrite de-sulphidation and concurrent chlorite dehydration and is thus an internally driven process. At Montauban, the H₂S-rich fluid generated through this process allowed re-mobilisation of gold into the wall rock, where it was deposited in response to sulphidation of Fe Mg silicates. Retrograde hydrothermal re-mobilisation is an externally driven process, whereby large volumes of fluids from outside the deposit may dissolve and re-precipitate metals, and cause hydration of silicate minerals. This second hydrothermally driven process is not recognised at Montauban. Sulphide melting occurred as temperatures neared the peak metamorphic conditions. Melting initiated in the massive sulphides through arsenopyrite breakdown, and a small volume of melt was subsequently re-mobilised into the wall rock. Trace element partitioning and fractional crystallisation of this melt generated a precious metal-rich fractionate, which remained mobile until well after peak metamorphism. Thus, prograde hydrothermal re-mobilisation and sulphide melting were the most important mechanisms for controlling the distribution of Au and Ag.     

Gold ore-forming fluids of the Tanami region, Northern Australia

Fluid inclusion studies have been carried out on major gold deposits and prospects in the Tanami region to determine the compositions of the associated fluids and the processes responsible for gold mineralization. Pre-ore, milky quartz veins contain only two-phase aqueous inclusions with salinities ≤19 wt% NaCl eq. and homogenization temperatures that range from 110 to 410°C. In contrast, the ore-bearing veins typically contain low to moderate salinity (<14 wt% NaCl eq.), H₂O + CO₂ ± CH₄ ± N₂-bearing fluids. The CO₂-bearing inclusions coexist with two-phase aqueous inclusions that exhibit a wider range of salinities (≤21 wt% NaCl eq.). Post-ore quartz and carbonate veins contain mainly two-phase aqueous inclusions, with a last generation of aqueous inclusions being very CaCl₂-rich. Salinities range from 7 to 33 wt% NaCl eq. and homogenization temperatures vary from 62 to 312°C. Gold deposits in the Tanami region are hosted by carbonaceous or iron-rich sedimentary rocks and/or mafic rocks. They formed over a range of depths at temperatures from 200 to 430°C. The Groundrush deposit formed at the greatest temperatures and depths (260–430°C and ≤11 km), whereas deposits in the Tanami goldfield formed at the lowest temperatures (≥200°C) and at the shallowest depths (1.5–5.6 km). There is also evidence in the Tanami goldfield for late-stage isothermal mixing with higher salinity (≤21 wt% NaCl eq.) fluids at temperatures between 100 and 200°C. Other deposits (e.g., The Granites, Callie, and Coyote) formed at intermediate depths and at temperatures ranging from 240 to 360°C. All ore fluids contained CO₂ ± N₂ ± CH₄, with the more deeply formed deposits being enriched in CH₄ and higher level deposits being enriched in CO₂. Fluids from deposits hosted mainly by sedimentary rocks generally contained appreciable quantities of N₂. The one exception is the Tanami goldfield, where the quartz veins were dominated by aqueous inclusions with rare CO₂-bearing inclusions. Calculated δ ¹⁸O values for the ore fluids range from 3.8 to 8.5‰ and the corresponding δD values range from −89 to −37‰. Measured δ ¹³C values from CO₂ extracted from fluid inclusions ranged from −5.1 to −8.4‰. These data indicate a magmatic or mixed magmatic/metamorphic source for the ore fluids in the Tanami region. Interpretation of the fluid inclusion, alteration, and structural data suggests that mineralization may have occurred via a number of processes. Gold occurs in veins associated with brittle fracturing and other dilational structures, but in the larger deposits, there is also an association with iron-rich rocks or carbonaceous sediments, suggesting that both structural and chemical controls are important. The major mineralization process appears to be boiling/effervescence of a gas-rich fluid, which leads to partitioning of H₂S into the vapor phase resulting in gold precipitation. However, some deposits also show evidence of desulfidation by fluid–rock interaction and/or reduction of the ore-fluid by fluid mixing. These latter processes are generally more prevalent in the higher crustal-level deposits.     

Detrital zircon geochronology of Carboniferous–Cretaceous strata in the Lhasa terrane, Southern Tibet

Sedimentary strata in the Lhasa terrane of southern Tibet record a long but poorly constrained history of basin formation and inversion. To investigate these events, we sampled Palaeozoic and Mesozoic sedimentary rocks in the Lhasa terrane for detrital zircon uranium–lead (U–Pb) analysis. The >700 detrital zircon U–Pb ages reported in this paper provide the first significant detrital zircon data set from the Lhasa terrane and shed new light on the tectonic and depositional history of the region. Collectively, the dominant detrital zircon age populations within these rocks are 100–150, 500–600 and 1000–1400 Ma. Sedimentary strata near Nam Co in central Lhasa are mapped as Lower Cretaceous but detrital zircons with ages younger than 400 Ma are conspicuously absent. The detrital zircon age distribution and other sedimentological evidence suggest that these strata are likely Carboniferous in age, which requires the existence of a previously unrecognized fault or unconformity. Lower Jurassic strata exposed within the Bangong suture between the Lhasa and Qiangtang terranes contain populations of detrital zircons with ages between 200 and 500 Ma and 1700 and 2000 Ma. These populations differ from the detrital zircon ages of samples collected in the Lhasa terrane and suggest a unique source area. The Upper Cretaceous Takena Formation contains zircon populations with ages between 100 and 160 Ma, 500 and 600 Ma and 1000 and 1400 Ma. Detrital zircon ages from these strata suggest that several distinct fluvial systems occupied the southern portion of the Lhasa terrane during the Late Cretaceous and that deposition in the basin ceased before 70 Ma. Carboniferous strata exposed within the Lhasa terrane likely served as source rocks for sediments deposited during Cretaceous time. Similarities between the lithologies and detrital zircon age‐probability plots of Carboniferous rocks in the Lhasa and Qiangtang terranes and Tethyan strata in the Himalaya suggest that these areas were located proximal to one another within Gondwanaland. U–Pb ages of detrital zircons from our samples and differences between the geographic distribution of igneous rocks within the Tibetan plateau suggest that it is possible to discriminate a southern vs. northern provenance signature using detrital zircon age populations.     

Fast approximate EM induction modeling of metallic and UXO targets using a permeable prism

The time-domain EM induction response of non-magnetic and magnetic targets can be approximated using a conductive permeable prism composed of six faces of conductive plates, each face being composed of a set of conductive ribbons. The effect of magnetic permeability is included by the use of two “apparent flux gathering” coefficients, and two “effective magnetic permeability” coefficients, in the axial and transverse directions. These four magnetic property coefficients are a function of physical properties and geometry of the target, but are independent of prism orientation relative to a transmitter. The approximation algorithm is computationally fast, allowing inversions for target parameters to be achieved in seconds. The model is tested on profiles acquired with a Geonics EM63 time-domain EM metal detector over a non-magnetic copper pipe target, and a steel artillery shell in horizontal and vertical orientations. Results show that this approximation to a permeable prism has a capability of fitting geometric, conductivity and magnetic parameters at both early and late sample times. The magnetic parameters show strong change from early to late times on the EMI decay curve, indicating that the magnetic properties of the target have non-linear characteristics. It is proposed that these magnetic parameters and the nature of their non-linearity may carry additional discrimination information for distinguishing between intact munitions and scrap in UXO studies.     

Climate and human health: synthesizing environmental complexity and uncertainty

Broad relationships between weather and human health have long been recognized, and there is currently a large body of research examining the impacts of climate change on human health. Much of the literature in this area examines climate–health relationships at global or regional levels, incorporating mostly generalized responses of pathogens and vectors to broad changes in climate. Far less research has been done to understand the direct and indirect climate-mediated processes involved at finer scales. Thus, some studies simplify the role of climate and may over- or under-estimate the potential response, while others have begun to highlight the subtle and complex role for climate that is contingent on other relevant processes occurring in natural and social environments. These fundamental processes need to be understood to determine the effects of past, current and future climate variation and change on human health. We summarize the principal climate variables and climate-dependent processes that are believed to impact human health across a representative set of diseases, along with key uncertainties in these relationships.     

A Framework and Software Tool to Support Collaborative Landscape Analysis: Fitting Square Pegs into Square Holes

For landscape models to be applied successfully in management situations, models must address appropriate questions, include relevant processes and interactions, be perceived as credible and involve people affected by decisions. We propose a framework for collaborative model building that can address these issues, and has its roots in adaptive management, computer‐supported collaborative work and landscape ecology. Models built through this framework integrate a variety of information sources, address relevant questions, and are customized for the particular landscape and policy environment under study. Participants are involved in the process from the start, and because their input is incorporated, they feel ownership of the resulting models, increasing the chance of model acceptance and application. There are two requirements for success: a tool that supports rapid model prototyping and modification, that makes a clear link between a conceptual and implemented model, and that has the ability to implement a wide range of model types; and a core team with skills in communication, research and analysis, and knowledge of ecology and forestry in addition to modelling. SELES (Spatially Explicit Landscape Event Simulator) is a tool for building and running models of landscape dynamics. It combines discrete event simulation with a spatial database and a relatively simple modelling language to allow rapid development of landscape simulations, and provides a high‐level means of specifying complex model behaviours ranging from management actions to natural disturbance and succession. We have applied our framework in several forest modelling projects in British Columbia, Canada. We have found that this framework increases the interest by local experts and decision‐makers to participate actively in the model building process. The workshop process and resulting models have efficiently provided insight into the dynamics of large landscapes over long time frames. The use of SELES has facilitated this process by providing a flexible, transparent environment in which models can be rapidly implemented and refined. As a result, model findings may be more readily incorporated into decision‐support systems designed to assist resource managers in making informed decisions.     

Forecasting Monsoon Precipitation Using Artificial Neural Networks

This paper explores the application of Artificial Intelligent (AI) techniques for climate forecast. It pres ents a study on modelling the monsoon precipitation forecast by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Using the historical data of the total amount of summer rainfall over the Delta Area of Yangtze River in China, three ANNs models have been developed to forecast the monsoon precipitation in the corre sponding area one year, five-year, and ten-year forward respectively. Performances of the models have been validated using a ＇new＇ data set that has not been exposed to the models during the processes of model development and test. The experiment results are promising, indicating that the proposed ANNs models have good quality in terms of the accuracy, stability and generalisation ability.     

Lithological and spatial controls on the distribution of quartz veins in andesite- and rhyolite-hosted epithermal Au–Ag deposits of the Hauraki Goldfield, New Zealand

Vein distributions in line samples from four epithermal Au–Ag deposits of the Hauraki Goldfield were logged and quantified by vein spacing, vein density, vein thickness and percentage of vein extension. One deposit is hosted in andesite lavas (Martha Hill), one in andesite lavas and dacite porphyry, dacitic tuffs and pyroclastic breccias (Golden Cross), and two in rhyolite lavas and rhyolitic tuffs with minor andesite lavas or andesite dikes (Ohui and Wharekirauponga). The vein systems in these deposits form fault-controlled arrays of extensional veins. Vein spacing distributions are non-fractal over two to three orders of magnitude (1 mm to 5 m), and therefore fractal dimension statistics are not applicable. The coefficient of variation (C_v) of vein spacing was used as a measure of the degree of vein clustering. Rock type has a marked influence on vein spacing distributions, with veining in rhyolite lava having lower average thickness and percentage extension, but a generally higher degree of vein clustering compared with veining in andesite lava in the same deposit. Vein spacing distributions in well-jointed lithologies, mainly andesite lava, have C_v values (0.8–1.2) that are indicative of anticlustered to weakly clustered patterns, particularly in the vein stockwork of the upper part of the Golden Cross deposit. These C_v values are consistent with field observations that joints are a major control on vein spacing. In the poorly jointed dacitic and rhyolitic rocks, the veins are weakly to strongly clustered as shown by higher C_v values (1.2–2.4), and are commonly associated with normal faults. Overall, andesite lava and dacite porphyry and pyroclastics host thicker and more persistent veins than rhyolite lava and tuff. These larger veins contain significant volumes of high-grade gold mineralisation. The higher chemical reactivity to hydrothermal fluids of andesite and dacite compared with rhyolite may have aided propagation and thickening of the veins in andesite-hosted deposits. Within an individual epithermal deposit, location close to thick veins, representing major fluid conduits, commonly overrides the effect of different lithologies. Sites that are deeper and located within or adjacent to major vein structures have higher average vein thickness, percentage extension and degree of vein clustering. Systematic collection and analysis of vein spacing, thickness and density data can be used to define trends that are useful in the exploration of gold-bearing epithermal vein deposits. Received: 25 August 1998 / Accepted: 23 December 1999